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I spoke with Shayle Kann, Vice President for Research at \u003ca href=\"http://www.greentechmedia.com/research\">GTM Research\u003c/a> about the recent turmoil.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>What’s this past year been like in the solar industry?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Globally, it's a tough year in solar. We have massive oversupply of solar panels, so it's been a really hard time for solar manufacturers. And demand on a global level is growing, but relatively slowly this year as compared to the past couple of years, where we've seen really massive growth. The big reason for that is that Europe has slowed down as incentives have been pulled back from European governments.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The US, on the other hand, as far as the solar market goes, is pretty strong this year. We're looking at what we expect to be about 71 percent growth in solar installations in 2012 over 2011. So that's a strong growth rate, but it is slower than we've seen. In 2010 and 2011, the market more than doubled. So it's slowing down a bit, but solar is still growing fast throughout the US.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>And China has emerged as a big player...\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Chinese manufacturers of solar panels have been gaining more and more market share. It's not to say that Chinese manufacturers are the only ones. In fact, the largest market share in the US is held by SunPower, which is a US-based manufacturer. But Chinese players have a really big role to play here. And that, in conjunction with a few other things, has resulted in what has become something of a mini \"trade war\" in the solar industry, headquartered in the US but occurring in other places as well.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>This spring we saw the U.S. Commerce Department levy trade tariffs on Chinese solar panels. Are people paying more because of them?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It's been sort of a strange situation because the way that the tariffs worked out in the US, they apply to photovoltaic cell manufacturing. The reason that matters is that the solar panels are basically manufactured in four steps. The cell manufacturing is really the third of four steps. The fourth step is assembling those cells into panels, or modules.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The way that the tariff ruling worked out in the US is: the only thing that really matters is where the cells themselves are manufactured. And the result of that has been that a lot of Chinese manufacturers have essentially started tolling, or having somebody else manufacture their cells for them offshore, most popular being Taiwan, then shipping them back into China, assembling them into modules and sending them to the US, not being subject to the tariff.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So, that does create a cost impact. We estimate it to be something like six or seven cents per watt, which is a little less than 10 percent of the cost of a module, which means there has been a very slight incremental cost impact to anybody who's buying solar panels in the US, but it hasn't been very big. On the scale of a system (we're talking about a panel that costs maybe 80 cents, and a system that costs three or four dollars per watt), a five-or-six cent cost impact isn't huge. So it's had a slight impact, but it hasn't derailed the US market in any major way.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Have the tariffs caused any US installers to stop buying Chinese panels?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I think a lot of them at least opened their eyes to some non-Chinese manufacturers that they wouldn't have before. It did provide an opportunity for them to step in and gain some share where they didn't before, but it did certainly not result in installers in the US stopping using Chinese panels.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>How dramatically have solar panel prices dropped in the past few years?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It's been huge. If you look back at even late 2008, panel prices were up close to $4 a watt. Today, they're down in the 70 cent per watt range. So that is an enormous decrease over the course of just four years. And they're continuing to fall.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But there is an important point to make, which is: given how far panel prices have fallen, it becomes less and less important to look for cost reductions from the panel itself. The cost of the solar project isn't just the panel. There's other hardware that gets installed, there's labor, system design, engineering, and financing, and all these other costs, that increasingly are becoming the place where the bottleneck lies in getting costs down.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Are we going to see a big shake-out in the industry?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We're in the midst of a big global solar panel manufacturer shake-out. It's not just true in the US. This year, we have something on the order of about 30 gigawatts of solar demand globally, compared to about 60 gigawatts of solar manufacturing capacity. So there is a huge oversupply, resulting in lowered margins, strained balance sheets for every single solar manufacturer everywhere. We're starting to see this consolidation and shake-out take place. That will be occurring for at least a year and a half before it really settles.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>What’s the future like for US solar manufacturers?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It's a tough time to be a solar manufacturer anyway, no matter where you're from. It's particularly difficult to be manufacturing in the US, where your cost structure is going to be higher than it would be if you were in a low-cost location like China, Malaysia, Taiwan, Philippines.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That said, we think the way you can weather the storm is by differentiating in terms of how you're selling into the market. Providing additional services to your customers, doing things like getting into project development yourself. But to be sure, if you cannot weather a very, very difficult storm in which you're not going to be making money for the next 18 months, then you better be looking for a drastic change in your strategy pretty quickly.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We still have a global oversupply. So maybe it (the tariff) provides a bit of an incremental benefit to US solar manufacturers, but it really hasn't fixed the issues that they're facing on a global scale.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Talking about the solar manufacturers these days is kind of depressing, but talking about the solar market in the US is a pretty positive story. Solar deployment remains a positive story, even if solar manufacturing is tough.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>Produced with Nicholas Christen.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Plummeting prices, trade war, record growth – it’s been a busy year for the solar industry. Reporter Lauren Sommer talks to a solar analyst about how California is doing in the rapidly changing global market.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1367353170,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":25,"wordCount":1130},"headData":{"title":"Q & A - How Will the Solar Industry Shake Out? | KQED","description":"Plummeting prices, trade war, record growth – it’s been a busy year for the solar industry. Reporter Lauren Sommer talks to a solar analyst about how California is doing in the rapidly changing global market.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"Q & A - How Will the Solar Industry Shake Out?","datePublished":"2012-11-05T18:41:50.000Z","dateModified":"2013-04-30T20:19:30.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"disqusIdentifier":"46778 http://science.kqed.org/quest/?p=46778","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/11/05/q-a-how-will-the-solar-industry-shake-out/","disqusTitle":"Q & A - How Will the Solar Industry Shake Out?","path":"/quest/46778/q-a-how-will-the-solar-industry-shake-out","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_46781\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/panel.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-46781\" title=\"panel\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/panel-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Solar panel at SunPower in San Jose, CA.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>It's been a bumpy year for the solar industry despite record growth, something we explore in \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/audio/looming-trade-war-shakes-up-u-s-solar-industry/\">this week's radio story\u003c/a>. I spoke with Shayle Kann, Vice President for Research at \u003ca href=\"http://www.greentechmedia.com/research\">GTM Research\u003c/a> about the recent turmoil.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>What’s this past year been like in the solar industry?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Globally, it's a tough year in solar. We have massive oversupply of solar panels, so it's been a really hard time for solar manufacturers. And demand on a global level is growing, but relatively slowly this year as compared to the past couple of years, where we've seen really massive growth. The big reason for that is that Europe has slowed down as incentives have been pulled back from European governments.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The US, on the other hand, as far as the solar market goes, is pretty strong this year. We're looking at what we expect to be about 71 percent growth in solar installations in 2012 over 2011. So that's a strong growth rate, but it is slower than we've seen. In 2010 and 2011, the market more than doubled. So it's slowing down a bit, but solar is still growing fast throughout the US.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>And China has emerged as a big player...\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Chinese manufacturers of solar panels have been gaining more and more market share. It's not to say that Chinese manufacturers are the only ones. In fact, the largest market share in the US is held by SunPower, which is a US-based manufacturer. But Chinese players have a really big role to play here. And that, in conjunction with a few other things, has resulted in what has become something of a mini \"trade war\" in the solar industry, headquartered in the US but occurring in other places as well.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>This spring we saw the U.S. Commerce Department levy trade tariffs on Chinese solar panels. Are people paying more because of them?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It's been sort of a strange situation because the way that the tariffs worked out in the US, they apply to photovoltaic cell manufacturing. The reason that matters is that the solar panels are basically manufactured in four steps. The cell manufacturing is really the third of four steps. The fourth step is assembling those cells into panels, or modules.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The way that the tariff ruling worked out in the US is: the only thing that really matters is where the cells themselves are manufactured. And the result of that has been that a lot of Chinese manufacturers have essentially started tolling, or having somebody else manufacture their cells for them offshore, most popular being Taiwan, then shipping them back into China, assembling them into modules and sending them to the US, not being subject to the tariff.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So, that does create a cost impact. We estimate it to be something like six or seven cents per watt, which is a little less than 10 percent of the cost of a module, which means there has been a very slight incremental cost impact to anybody who's buying solar panels in the US, but it hasn't been very big. On the scale of a system (we're talking about a panel that costs maybe 80 cents, and a system that costs three or four dollars per watt), a five-or-six cent cost impact isn't huge. So it's had a slight impact, but it hasn't derailed the US market in any major way.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Have the tariffs caused any US installers to stop buying Chinese panels?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I think a lot of them at least opened their eyes to some non-Chinese manufacturers that they wouldn't have before. It did provide an opportunity for them to step in and gain some share where they didn't before, but it did certainly not result in installers in the US stopping using Chinese panels.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>How dramatically have solar panel prices dropped in the past few years?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It's been huge. If you look back at even late 2008, panel prices were up close to $4 a watt. Today, they're down in the 70 cent per watt range. So that is an enormous decrease over the course of just four years. And they're continuing to fall.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But there is an important point to make, which is: given how far panel prices have fallen, it becomes less and less important to look for cost reductions from the panel itself. The cost of the solar project isn't just the panel. There's other hardware that gets installed, there's labor, system design, engineering, and financing, and all these other costs, that increasingly are becoming the place where the bottleneck lies in getting costs down.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Are we going to see a big shake-out in the industry?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We're in the midst of a big global solar panel manufacturer shake-out. It's not just true in the US. This year, we have something on the order of about 30 gigawatts of solar demand globally, compared to about 60 gigawatts of solar manufacturing capacity. So there is a huge oversupply, resulting in lowered margins, strained balance sheets for every single solar manufacturer everywhere. We're starting to see this consolidation and shake-out take place. That will be occurring for at least a year and a half before it really settles.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>What’s the future like for US solar manufacturers?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It's a tough time to be a solar manufacturer anyway, no matter where you're from. It's particularly difficult to be manufacturing in the US, where your cost structure is going to be higher than it would be if you were in a low-cost location like China, Malaysia, Taiwan, Philippines.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That said, we think the way you can weather the storm is by differentiating in terms of how you're selling into the market. Providing additional services to your customers, doing things like getting into project development yourself. But to be sure, if you cannot weather a very, very difficult storm in which you're not going to be making money for the next 18 months, then you better be looking for a drastic change in your strategy pretty quickly.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We still have a global oversupply. So maybe it (the tariff) provides a bit of an incremental benefit to US solar manufacturers, but it really hasn't fixed the issues that they're facing on a global scale.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Talking about the solar manufacturers these days is kind of depressing, but talking about the solar market in the US is a pretty positive story. Solar deployment remains a positive story, even if solar manufacturing is tough.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"floatright"},"numeric":["floatright"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>Produced with Nicholas Christen.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/quest/46778/q-a-how-will-the-solar-industry-shake-out","authors":["239"],"categories":["quest_11765","quest_8","quest_9"],"tags":["quest_582","quest_11590","quest_2409","quest_2693","quest_2708","quest_11589","quest_11587"],"featImg":"quest_46781","label":"quest"},"quest_46763":{"type":"posts","id":"quest_46763","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"quest","id":"46763","score":null,"sort":[1351888273000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"looming-trade-war-shakes-up-u-s-solar-industry","title":"Looming Trade War Shakes Up U.S. Solar Industry","publishDate":1351888273,"format":"audio","headTitle":"QUEST | KQED Science","labelTerm":{"site":"quest"},"content":"\u003cp>http://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/quest/2012/11/20121105quest.mp3\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_46765\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/DSC00476.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-46765\" title=\"DSC00476\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/DSC00476-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A worker handles solar panels at SunPower's manufacturing plant near San Jose.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Talk to anyone in the solar industry and they’ll tell you: it’s the best of times, it’s the worst of times. Solar installations are booming, but there’s also a looming trade war with China. Citing illegal subsidies, U.S. officials have placed trade tariffs on Chinese solar panels. American solar companies are split on whether it will be good or bad for the industry.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>A Solar Manufacturer\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At SunPower’s solar manufacturing plant near San Jose, workers screw frames onto shiny, six-foot solar panels as they come off the line. “We are running 24 hours a day,” says quality engineer Eric Kao.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This plant has had a long list of notable visitors: Governors Jerry Brown and Arnold Schwarzenegger, Energy Secretary Steven Chu. That’s because SunPower is one of the top suppliers in the country -- and because there aren’t many solar plants left to visit. It’s getting lonely to be an American solar manufacturer.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s going to require being lonely to be one of the winners but it’s unfortunate that there aren’t many American solar companies,” says Tom Werner, CEO of SunPower. He says five years ago, things were looking good for U.S. solar manufacturers. There were growing markets in Germany, Japan and California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Many of the industry participants were making good profits. Well, that attracts competition,” he says. Chinese manufacturers flooded the market with solar panels. Within four years, panel prices fell seventy five percent.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The economics have gotten way, way more challenging. It's difficult for some companies to make it,” Werner says. SunPower has survived, but is just hoping to break even this year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Last year, several American solar panel companies filed a trade complaint against China, saying Chinese solar companies are getting illegal subsidies and are dumping panels on the US market. In May, the U.S. Commerce Department agreed and levied trade tariffs of 25 to 35 percent.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Werner says while SunPower didn’t directly join the complaint, it does stand to gain. “Let’s just say it won’t hurt our pricing but I don’t know if it will be a big advantage. Having a trade war is definitely not good for the industry so we need to sort this out.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The solar industry doesn’t need more bad news, says Werner, especially after the political scandal over one particular bankrupt solar company. “It’s amazing how many people know the name of that company.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Solyndra, that is. It’s a name Werner avoids saying, much like like Lord Voldemort in Harry Potter. “Well see, if I name the company then I’m just propagating the whole deal,” Werner says. Tariffs or no tariffs, Werner says some US manufacturers may not make it either. It’s an entirely different story with solar installers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Flip Side: A Solar Installer\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At Sungevity’s Oakland headquarters, a team of sales people grabs maracas off their desks. “So the maraca shake happens when there’s a sale,” says Danny Kennedy, president of Sungevity.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sungevity is one part power company, one part internet startup. It designs residential solar systems virtually by using satellite photos of each house. Like online shopping, Sungevity makes a sale before a truck ever goes out. And sales have been good.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We grew gangbusters in 2010. Doubled again in ‘11. Have continued to grow this year,” says Kennedy. That’s thanks to a new option for customers to lease a solar system, instead of buying it upfront. It’s also more affordable because panels are cheaper.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This is something I think we should celebrate – the fact that we’re driving cost out of clean energy,” he says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sungevity buys panels from the US, Korea and from China. Even with the trade tariffs, prices are about the same because Chinese solar companies have found a loophole. The tariffs are only on solar cells, not the entire solar panel. So, the cells are manufactured offshore and put into panels in China.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But Kennedy says focusing on these manufacturing jobs is a mistake. The real green jobs are elsewhere. “There’s more job density in the sales, finance, installation and maintenance end of the value chain than there is in the factory. It’s probably a ratio of three to one.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>California leads the nation in solar jobs. Kennedy is concerned that a trade war with China would put them at risk.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s crazy talk. We’re growing faster than any industry over a hundred billion dollars in value in the global economy. And yet, there is this nabobs of negativity around us that are causing concerns in the investment community,” says Kennedy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Solar’s Teenage Years\u003cbr>\n\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nAll of this adds up to some major growing pains for the industry. “It is totally a teenager in a lot of ways,” says Dan Kammen, a professor at UC Berkeley.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The industry is growing dramatically. There’s also incredible turmoil. And there are some teenagers who are clearly going to be young prodigies and others who are going to go into rehab,” says Kammen.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When companies fight over market share and race to the lowest price, Kammen says it’s the startups with cutting-edge technology that just can’t compete.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“A battle between the two biggest players, the US and China, is one where we might actually have casualties that aren’t just business casualties, they’re actually, pieces of innovation getting lost.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The trade tariffs won’t be final until the US International Trade Commission rules on whether China has been illegally subsidizing their solar industry. That decision is expected on Wednesday.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Federal officials have put trade tariffs on Chinese solar panels. American solar companies are split on whether it will be good or bad for the industry.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1367353159,"stats":{"hasAudio":true,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":27,"wordCount":1032},"headData":{"title":"Looming Trade War Shakes Up U.S. Solar Industry | KQED","description":"Federal officials have put trade tariffs on Chinese solar panels. American solar companies are split on whether it will be good or bad for the industry.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"Looming Trade War Shakes Up U.S. Solar Industry","datePublished":"2012-11-02T20:31:13.000Z","dateModified":"2013-04-30T20:19:19.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"disqusIdentifier":"46763 http://science.kqed.org/quest/?post_type=audio_reports&p=46763","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/11/02/looming-trade-war-shakes-up-u-s-solar-industry/","disqusTitle":"Looming Trade War Shakes Up U.S. Solar Industry","WpOldSlug":"west-coast-a-test-bed-for-ocean-acidification-2","path":"/quest/46763/looming-trade-war-shakes-up-u-s-solar-industry","audioUrl":"http://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/quest/2012/11/20121105quest.mp3","audioDuration":null,"audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"audioLink","attributes":{"named":{"src":"http://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/quest/2012/11/20121105quest.mp3"},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_46765\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/DSC00476.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-46765\" title=\"DSC00476\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/DSC00476-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A worker handles solar panels at SunPower's manufacturing plant near San Jose.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Talk to anyone in the solar industry and they’ll tell you: it’s the best of times, it’s the worst of times. Solar installations are booming, but there’s also a looming trade war with China. Citing illegal subsidies, U.S. officials have placed trade tariffs on Chinese solar panels. American solar companies are split on whether it will be good or bad for the industry.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>A Solar Manufacturer\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At SunPower’s solar manufacturing plant near San Jose, workers screw frames onto shiny, six-foot solar panels as they come off the line. “We are running 24 hours a day,” says quality engineer Eric Kao.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This plant has had a long list of notable visitors: Governors Jerry Brown and Arnold Schwarzenegger, Energy Secretary Steven Chu. That’s because SunPower is one of the top suppliers in the country -- and because there aren’t many solar plants left to visit. It’s getting lonely to be an American solar manufacturer.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s going to require being lonely to be one of the winners but it’s unfortunate that there aren’t many American solar companies,” says Tom Werner, CEO of SunPower. He says five years ago, things were looking good for U.S. solar manufacturers. There were growing markets in Germany, Japan and California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Many of the industry participants were making good profits. Well, that attracts competition,” he says. Chinese manufacturers flooded the market with solar panels. Within four years, panel prices fell seventy five percent.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The economics have gotten way, way more challenging. It's difficult for some companies to make it,” Werner says. SunPower has survived, but is just hoping to break even this year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Last year, several American solar panel companies filed a trade complaint against China, saying Chinese solar companies are getting illegal subsidies and are dumping panels on the US market. In May, the U.S. Commerce Department agreed and levied trade tariffs of 25 to 35 percent.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Werner says while SunPower didn’t directly join the complaint, it does stand to gain. “Let’s just say it won’t hurt our pricing but I don’t know if it will be a big advantage. Having a trade war is definitely not good for the industry so we need to sort this out.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The solar industry doesn’t need more bad news, says Werner, especially after the political scandal over one particular bankrupt solar company. “It’s amazing how many people know the name of that company.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Solyndra, that is. It’s a name Werner avoids saying, much like like Lord Voldemort in Harry Potter. “Well see, if I name the company then I’m just propagating the whole deal,” Werner says. Tariffs or no tariffs, Werner says some US manufacturers may not make it either. It’s an entirely different story with solar installers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Flip Side: A Solar Installer\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At Sungevity’s Oakland headquarters, a team of sales people grabs maracas off their desks. “So the maraca shake happens when there’s a sale,” says Danny Kennedy, president of Sungevity.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sungevity is one part power company, one part internet startup. It designs residential solar systems virtually by using satellite photos of each house. Like online shopping, Sungevity makes a sale before a truck ever goes out. And sales have been good.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We grew gangbusters in 2010. Doubled again in ‘11. Have continued to grow this year,” says Kennedy. That’s thanks to a new option for customers to lease a solar system, instead of buying it upfront. It’s also more affordable because panels are cheaper.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This is something I think we should celebrate – the fact that we’re driving cost out of clean energy,” he says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sungevity buys panels from the US, Korea and from China. Even with the trade tariffs, prices are about the same because Chinese solar companies have found a loophole. The tariffs are only on solar cells, not the entire solar panel. So, the cells are manufactured offshore and put into panels in China.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But Kennedy says focusing on these manufacturing jobs is a mistake. The real green jobs are elsewhere. “There’s more job density in the sales, finance, installation and maintenance end of the value chain than there is in the factory. It’s probably a ratio of three to one.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>California leads the nation in solar jobs. Kennedy is concerned that a trade war with China would put them at risk.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s crazy talk. We’re growing faster than any industry over a hundred billion dollars in value in the global economy. And yet, there is this nabobs of negativity around us that are causing concerns in the investment community,” says Kennedy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Solar’s Teenage Years\u003cbr>\n\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nAll of this adds up to some major growing pains for the industry. “It is totally a teenager in a lot of ways,” says Dan Kammen, a professor at UC Berkeley.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The industry is growing dramatically. There’s also incredible turmoil. And there are some teenagers who are clearly going to be young prodigies and others who are going to go into rehab,” says Kammen.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When companies fight over market share and race to the lowest price, Kammen says it’s the startups with cutting-edge technology that just can’t compete.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“A battle between the two biggest players, the US and China, is one where we might actually have casualties that aren’t just business casualties, they’re actually, pieces of innovation getting lost.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The trade tariffs won’t be final until the US International Trade Commission rules on whether China has been illegally subsidizing their solar industry. That decision is expected on Wednesday.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/quest/46763/looming-trade-war-shakes-up-u-s-solar-industry","authors":["239"],"categories":["quest_11765","quest_8","quest_9"],"tags":["quest_252","quest_438","quest_582","quest_11518","quest_11588","quest_13203","quest_2270","quest_2409","quest_2693","quest_2708","quest_11586","quest_11587"],"featImg":"quest_46765","label":"quest"}},"programsReducer":{"possible":{"id":"possible","title":"Possible","info":"Possible is hosted by entrepreneur Reid Hoffman and writer Aria Finger. Together in Possible, Hoffman and Finger lead enlightening discussions about building a brighter collective future. The show features interviews with visionary guests like Trevor Noah, Sam Altman and Janette Sadik-Khan. Possible paints an optimistic portrait of the world we can create through science, policy, business, art and our shared humanity. 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Hosted by journalists of color, the show tackles the subject of race head-on, exploring how it impacts every part of society — from politics and pop culture to history, sports and more.\u003cbr />\u003cbr />\u003cem>Life Kit\u003c/em>, which will be in the second part of the hour, guides you through spaces and feelings no one prepares you for — from finances to mental health, from workplace microaggressions to imposter syndrome, from relationships to parenting. The show features experts with real world experience and shares their knowledge. 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You can also visit the MindShift website for episodes and supplemental blog posts or tweet us \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/MindShiftKQED\">@MindShiftKQED\u003c/a> or visit us at \u003ca href=\"/mindshift\">MindShift.KQED.org\u003c/a>","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Mindshift-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg","imageAlt":"KQED MindShift: How We Will Learn","officialWebsiteLink":"/mindshift/","meta":{"site":"news","source":"kqed","order":"2"},"link":"/podcasts/mindshift","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/mindshift-podcast/id1078765985","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5tZWdhcGhvbmUuZm0vS1FJTkM1NzY0NjAwNDI5","npr":"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/464615685/mind-shift-podcast","stitcher":"https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/kqed/stories-teachers-share","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/0MxSpNYZKNprFLCl7eEtyx"}},"morning-edition":{"id":"morning-edition","title":"Morning Edition","info":"\u003cem>Morning Edition\u003c/em> takes listeners around the country and the world with multi-faceted stories and commentaries every weekday. 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On Our Watch brings listeners into the rooms where officers are questioned and witnesses are interrogated to find out who this system is really protecting. 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For one hour a week, the show tries to lift the veil from the process of \"making media,\" especially news media, because it's through that lens that we see the world and the world sees us","airtime":"SUN 2pm-3pm, MON 12am-1am","imageSrc":"https://ww2.kqed.org/radio/wp-content/uploads/sites/50/2018/04/onTheMedia.png","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.wnycstudios.org/shows/otm","meta":{"site":"news","source":"wnyc"},"link":"/radio/program/on-the-media","subscribe":{"apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/on-the-media/id73330715?mt=2","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/On-the-Media-p69/","rss":"http://feeds.wnyc.org/onthemedia"}},"our-body-politic":{"id":"our-body-politic","title":"Our Body Politic","info":"Presented by KQED, KCRW and KPCC, and created and hosted by award-winning journalist Farai Chideya, Our Body Politic is unapologetically centered on reporting on not just how women of color experience the major political events of today, but how they’re impacting those very issues.","airtime":"SAT 6pm-7pm, SUN 1am-2am","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Our-Body-Politic-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://our-body-politic.simplecast.com/","meta":{"site":"news","source":"kcrw"},"link":"/radio/program/our-body-politic","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/our-body-politic/id1533069868","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5zaW1wbGVjYXN0LmNvbS9feGFQaHMxcw","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/4ApAiLT1kV153TttWAmqmc","rss":"https://feeds.simplecast.com/_xaPhs1s","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/podcasts/News--Politics-Podcasts/Our-Body-Politic-p1369211/"}},"pbs-newshour":{"id":"pbs-newshour","title":"PBS NewsHour","info":"Analysis, background reports and updates from the PBS NewsHour putting today's news in context.","airtime":"MON-FRI 3pm-4pm","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/PBS-News-Hour-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/","meta":{"site":"news","source":"pbs"},"link":"/radio/program/pbs-newshour","subscribe":{"apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/pbs-newshour-full-show/id394432287?mt=2","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/PBS-NewsHour---Full-Show-p425698/","rss":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/feeds/rss/podcasts/show"}},"perspectives":{"id":"perspectives","title":"Perspectives","tagline":"KQED's series of of daily listener commentaries since 1991","info":"KQED's series of of daily listener commentaries since 1991.","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Perspectives-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"/perspectives/","meta":{"site":"radio","source":"kqed","order":"15"},"link":"/perspectives","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id73801135","npr":"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/432309616/perspectives","rss":"https://ww2.kqed.org/perspectives/category/perspectives/feed/","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly93dzIua3FlZC5vcmcvcGVyc3BlY3RpdmVzL2NhdGVnb3J5L3BlcnNwZWN0aXZlcy9mZWVkLw"}},"planet-money":{"id":"planet-money","title":"Planet Money","info":"The economy explained. 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In the Radiolab world, information sounds like music and science and culture collide. Hosted by Jad Abumrad and Robert Krulwich, the show is designed for listeners who demand skepticism, but appreciate wonder. 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The result is stories that inform and inspire, arming our listeners with information to right injustices, hold the powerful accountable and improve lives.Reveal is hosted by Al Letson and showcases the award-winning work of CIR and newsrooms large and small across the nation. In a radio and podcast market crowded with choices, Reveal focuses on important and often surprising stories that illuminate the world for our listeners.","airtime":"SAT 4pm-5pm","imageSrc":"https://ww2.kqed.org/radio/wp-content/uploads/sites/50/2018/04/reveal300px.png","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.revealnews.org/episodes/","meta":{"site":"news","source":"npr"},"link":"/radio/program/reveal","subscribe":{"apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/reveal/id886009669","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/Reveal-p679597/","rss":"http://feeds.revealradio.org/revealpodcast"}},"says-you":{"id":"says-you","title":"Says You!","info":"Public radio's game show of bluff and bluster, words and whimsy. 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