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Credit: Craig Miller\u003c/em>\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The severe flooding on the Mississippi River has left a lot of damage in its wake. It's an extreme event that government and insurance companies try to plan for by predicting the risk. But climate change is throwing a wrench in those calculations.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Most of us don't think about risk. We think about randomness. That's illustrated by a scene in the 1982 movie, \"\u003ca href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World_According_to_Garp\">The World According to Garp\u003c/a>\", where Robin Williams is shopping for a new house with his wife. They're standing in front of one home when...a plane crashes into it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c!--more-->\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Despite the crash, the Robin Williams character agrees to buy the house saying, \"It's been pre-disastered! We'll be safe here.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That may not be a typical reaction, but climatologist Kelly Redmond says it reveals a lot about how we think about risk. \"It has to do with how we describe rare things. We spend societally an enormous amount of resources and time and attention guarding against the very worst possibilities.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv style=\"border-bottom: 1px dotted #cecece;height: 20px;margin-bottom: 10px\">\u003c/div>\n\u003cp>[jwplayer config=\"QUEST Audio Player\" skin=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/themes/quest/glow.zip\" file=\"http://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/quest/2011/05/2011-05-16-quest.mp3\" ]\u003cbr>\n\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>Listen to the QUEST radio story \u003cstrong>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/audio/insuring-for-extreme-weather\">Insuring for Extreme Weather \u003c/a>\u003c/strong>\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv style=\"border-bottom: 1px dotted #cecece;height: 20px;margin-bottom: 10px\">\u003c/div>\n\u003cp>You've probably heard of the \"\u003ca href=\"http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/FS-229-96/\">100-year flood\u003c/a>.\" That's a flood so severe that it has a one in one hundred chance of happening every year. But how do we know that?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"About the only way we can get at how rare a rare thing is is by looking at a past record,\" says Redmond. So for floods, government agencies look into the historical record to see when floods happened in the past. They use that record to predict future flood risk.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But this relies on a very basic assumption. According to Redmond, the assumption is that the statistics of the future will look like the statistics of the past.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There's a fancy term for this – it's called \u003ca href=\"http://aquadoc.typepad.com/waterwired/2008/02/stationarity-is.html\">stationarity\u003c/a>. But there's a problem.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"What we don't know but what we suspect with changes in climate is that those statistics, especially about rare things, may change,\" says Redmond.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The US is already warming. Climate models show that western states could see more extreme weather as the climate continues to change. So, Redmond says, chances are good the future won't look like the recent past.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Jeanine Jones of the California Department Water of Resources agrees, saying \"a lot of California's existing infrastructure was designed on assumptions that are no longer valid.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>History of Water Forecasting in the West\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Jones says using the past as a guide for the future is a huge part of water planning and building codes. The idea was first adopted in the 1940s and 50s, when dams and infrastructure were built at record speed in western states.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"Congress was looking at all these water development plans coming in from the Corps of Engineers and the Bureau of Reclamation and wanting a common standard to compare all the projects,\" says Jones.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So they forecasted flood risk and water supply by looking at historical data. \"But they had very short data records. Maybe they only measured records of 20 years, 50 years. And that's not really very long,\" Jones says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Today, everything from building codes to home insurance is based on this short window of data. And so is another critical forecast.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>During the winter, surveyors measure the Sierra Nevada snow pack every month, so they can crunch the numbers and predict the year's water supply.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"It is very widely used by reservoir operators, by water agencies, by farmers who are looking at what are my chances for having a full water supply,\" says Jones.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But climate models show that more precipitation will fall as rain in California, instead of snow. And that means spring runoff could behave very differently. \"At some point, conditions will change enough that we've reached a tipping point where those statistical approaches really aren't valid anymore,\" Jones says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>An accurate water forecast is crucial to California's economy. So Jones says water officials are looking at using computer models to forecast spring runoff.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But when it comes to updating flood risk and building codes to reflect climate change, Kelly Redmond says that could take decades. \"We have to get a buy in from the engineering community, the city planners. Because there's so much expense to goes into building a bridge or a culvert or a building.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>A New Breed of Insurance Company\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There is one industry that's taking note of climate change – insurance.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"The increased variability in climate is going to start to dramatically affect the profits of corporations worldwide,\" says David Friedberg, CEO of San Francisco-based \u003ca href=\"http://www.weatherbill.com/\">Weatherbill\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Weatherbill is something of a next generation insurance company. They start with computer models that simulate weather and climate patterns. \"We then use those sorts of models to determine what sort of price we should charge for certain weather events occurring,\" says Friedberg.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Weatherbill works mostly with farmers, insuring them against extreme weather for between 40 and 400 dollars an acre. \"There's a range of things that can occur and that range is certainly widening. And as a result we should start to charge more for those sorts of events when we're insuring them.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Friedberg says this kind of insurance makes sense to a lot of farmers they work with, who are already noticing changing weather patterns. Investor Vinod Kholsa and Google have also noticed and put millions into the company. They're betting new software will be the answer when today's methods no longer work.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp> 37.7749295 -122.4194155\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Climate change is throwing a wrench into the calculations of insurance companies trying to assess the risks of floods and other natural disaster events.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1371060956,"stats":{"hasAudio":true,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":34,"wordCount":971},"headData":{"title":"Insuring for Extreme Weather | KQED","description":"","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"Insuring for Extreme Weather","datePublished":"2011-05-13T21:00:28.000Z","dateModified":"2013-06-12T18:15:56.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"disqusIdentifier":"14497 http://www.kqed.org/quest/blog/2011/05/13/insuring-for-extreme-weather/","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2011/05/13/insuring-for-extreme-weather-2/","disqusTitle":"Insuring for Extreme Weather","path":"/quest/14497/insuring-for-extreme-weather-2","audioUrl":"http://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/quest/2011/05/2011-05-16-quest.mp3","audioDuration":null,"audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003cspan class=\"left\">\u003ca href=\"http://www.kqed.org/quest\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2011/05/extremeweather3002.jpg\" alt=\"\">\u003c/a>\u003cem>Water forecasting could be thrown off by a changing climate. Credit: Craig Miller\u003c/em>\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The severe flooding on the Mississippi River has left a lot of damage in its wake. It's an extreme event that government and insurance companies try to plan for by predicting the risk. But climate change is throwing a wrench in those calculations.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Most of us don't think about risk. We think about randomness. That's illustrated by a scene in the 1982 movie, \"\u003ca href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World_According_to_Garp\">The World According to Garp\u003c/a>\", where Robin Williams is shopping for a new house with his wife. They're standing in front of one home when...a plane crashes into it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c!--more-->\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Despite the crash, the Robin Williams character agrees to buy the house saying, \"It's been pre-disastered! We'll be safe here.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That may not be a typical reaction, but climatologist Kelly Redmond says it reveals a lot about how we think about risk. \"It has to do with how we describe rare things. We spend societally an enormous amount of resources and time and attention guarding against the very worst possibilities.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv style=\"border-bottom: 1px dotted #cecece;height: 20px;margin-bottom: 10px\">\u003c/div>\n\u003cp>[jwplayer config=\"QUEST Audio Player\" skin=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/themes/quest/glow.zip\" file=\"http://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/quest/2011/05/2011-05-16-quest.mp3\" ]\u003cbr>\n\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>Listen to the QUEST radio story \u003cstrong>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/audio/insuring-for-extreme-weather\">Insuring for Extreme Weather \u003c/a>\u003c/strong>\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv style=\"border-bottom: 1px dotted #cecece;height: 20px;margin-bottom: 10px\">\u003c/div>\n\u003cp>You've probably heard of the \"\u003ca href=\"http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/FS-229-96/\">100-year flood\u003c/a>.\" That's a flood so severe that it has a one in one hundred chance of happening every year. But how do we know that?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"About the only way we can get at how rare a rare thing is is by looking at a past record,\" says Redmond. So for floods, government agencies look into the historical record to see when floods happened in the past. They use that record to predict future flood risk.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But this relies on a very basic assumption. According to Redmond, the assumption is that the statistics of the future will look like the statistics of the past.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There's a fancy term for this – it's called \u003ca href=\"http://aquadoc.typepad.com/waterwired/2008/02/stationarity-is.html\">stationarity\u003c/a>. But there's a problem.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"What we don't know but what we suspect with changes in climate is that those statistics, especially about rare things, may change,\" says Redmond.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The US is already warming. Climate models show that western states could see more extreme weather as the climate continues to change. So, Redmond says, chances are good the future won't look like the recent past.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Jeanine Jones of the California Department Water of Resources agrees, saying \"a lot of California's existing infrastructure was designed on assumptions that are no longer valid.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>History of Water Forecasting in the West\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Jones says using the past as a guide for the future is a huge part of water planning and building codes. The idea was first adopted in the 1940s and 50s, when dams and infrastructure were built at record speed in western states.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"Congress was looking at all these water development plans coming in from the Corps of Engineers and the Bureau of Reclamation and wanting a common standard to compare all the projects,\" says Jones.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So they forecasted flood risk and water supply by looking at historical data. \"But they had very short data records. Maybe they only measured records of 20 years, 50 years. And that's not really very long,\" Jones says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Today, everything from building codes to home insurance is based on this short window of data. And so is another critical forecast.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>During the winter, surveyors measure the Sierra Nevada snow pack every month, so they can crunch the numbers and predict the year's water supply.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"It is very widely used by reservoir operators, by water agencies, by farmers who are looking at what are my chances for having a full water supply,\" says Jones.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But climate models show that more precipitation will fall as rain in California, instead of snow. And that means spring runoff could behave very differently. \"At some point, conditions will change enough that we've reached a tipping point where those statistical approaches really aren't valid anymore,\" Jones says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>An accurate water forecast is crucial to California's economy. So Jones says water officials are looking at using computer models to forecast spring runoff.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But when it comes to updating flood risk and building codes to reflect climate change, Kelly Redmond says that could take decades. \"We have to get a buy in from the engineering community, the city planners. Because there's so much expense to goes into building a bridge or a culvert or a building.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>A New Breed of Insurance Company\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There is one industry that's taking note of climate change – insurance.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"The increased variability in climate is going to start to dramatically affect the profits of corporations worldwide,\" says David Friedberg, CEO of San Francisco-based \u003ca href=\"http://www.weatherbill.com/\">Weatherbill\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Weatherbill is something of a next generation insurance company. They start with computer models that simulate weather and climate patterns. \"We then use those sorts of models to determine what sort of price we should charge for certain weather events occurring,\" says Friedberg.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Weatherbill works mostly with farmers, insuring them against extreme weather for between 40 and 400 dollars an acre. \"There's a range of things that can occur and that range is certainly widening. And as a result we should start to charge more for those sorts of events when we're insuring them.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Friedberg says this kind of insurance makes sense to a lot of farmers they work with, who are already noticing changing weather patterns. Investor Vinod Kholsa and Google have also noticed and put millions into the company. They're betting new software will be the answer when today's methods no longer work.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp> 37.7749295 -122.4194155\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/quest/14497/insuring-for-extreme-weather-2","authors":["239"],"categories":["quest_6"],"tags":["quest_438","quest_13195","quest_621","quest_1114","quest_1477","quest_13203","quest_3339","quest_2682","quest_3108","quest_3340"],"featImg":"quest_14501","label":"quest"},"quest_17075":{"type":"posts","id":"quest_17075","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"quest","id":"17075","score":null,"sort":[1298910600000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"the-science-of-snow-2","title":"The Science of Snow","publishDate":1298910600,"format":"audio","headTitle":"QUEST | KQED Science","labelTerm":{"site":"quest"},"content":"\u003cp>http://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/quest/2011/02/2011-02-28-quest.mp3\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It's been a harsh winter across the US. Snow has blanketed the Sierra Nevada, where the snowpack is well above normal. Lots of snow means good skiing, but it also means an increased danger of avalanches. Lauren Sommer travels to Lake Tahoe where researchers are trying to understand the inner workings of snow a little bit better.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"It's been a harsh winter across the US. Snow has blanketed the Sierra Nevada, where the snowpack is well above normal. Lots of snow means good skiing, but it also means an increased danger of avalanches. Lauren Sommer travels to Lake Tahoe where researchers are trying to understand the inner workings of snow a little bit better.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1310161074,"stats":{"hasAudio":true,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":3,"wordCount":75},"headData":{"title":"The Science of Snow | KQED","description":"","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"The Science of Snow","datePublished":"2011-02-28T16:30:00.000Z","dateModified":"2011-07-08T21:37:54.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"disqusIdentifier":"17075 http://science.kqed.org/quest/audio/the-science-of-snow/","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2011/02/28/the-science-of-snow-2/","disqusTitle":"The Science of Snow","path":"/quest/17075/the-science-of-snow-2","audioUrl":"http://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/quest/2011/02/2011-02-28-quest.mp3","audioDuration":null,"audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>http://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/quest/2011/02/2011-02-28-quest.mp3\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It's been a harsh winter across the US. Snow has blanketed the Sierra Nevada, where the snowpack is well above normal. Lots of snow means good skiing, but it also means an increased danger of avalanches. Lauren Sommer travels to Lake Tahoe where researchers are trying to understand the inner workings of snow a little bit better.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/quest/17075/the-science-of-snow-2","authors":["239"],"categories":["quest_6"],"tags":["quest_252","quest_1881","quest_2141","quest_2349","quest_13202","quest_3339","quest_2630","quest_2644","quest_3328","quest_2682","quest_3108","quest_3340","quest_19"],"featImg":"quest_12549","label":"quest"},"quest_19193":{"type":"posts","id":"quest_19193","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"quest","id":"19193","score":null,"sort":[1298670985000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"the-science-of-snow","title":"The Science of Snow","publishDate":1298670985,"format":"standard","headTitle":"The Science of Snow | KQED","labelTerm":{"site":"quest"},"content":"\u003cp>\u003cspan class=\"left\">\u003ca href=\"http://www.kqed.org/quest\">\u003cimg decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2011/02/avalanche300.jpg\" alt=\"\">\u003c/a>\u003cem>\u003c/em>\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s been a harsh winter across the US. Snow has blanketed the Sierra Nevada, where the snowpack is well above normal. Lots of snow means good skiing, but it also means an increased danger of avalanches. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Avalanches aren’t something most skiers and snowboarders have to think about. That’s because ski areas take preventative action.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On the backside of \u003ca href=\"http://www.squaw.com/\">Squaw Valley Ski Resort\u003c/a>, two ski patrollers drop into a black diamond run known as Granite Chief. Below them are mounds of fresh, untouched powder – more than seven feet deep. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The patrollers are throwing explosive charges onto the slopes to trigger smaller, less dangerous avalanches. Booms ring out across the mountain.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c!--more-->\u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv style=\"border-bottom:1px dotted #cecece;height:20px;margin-bottom:10px\"> \u003c/div>\n\u003cp>[jwplayer config=”QUEST Audio Player” skin=”http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/themes/quest/glow.zip” file=”http://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/quest/2011/02/2011-02-28-quest.mp3″ ]\u003cbr>\n\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>Listen to the QUEST radio story \u003cstrong>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/audio/the-science-of-snow\">The Science of Snow\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv style=\"border-bottom:1px dotted #cecece;height:20px;margin-bottom:10px\"> \u003c/div>\n\u003cp>“The Sierras are known for getting tons of snow really quick,” says Will Paden, the avalanche forecaster at Squaw Valley Ski Resort. “We’re constantly trying to start the avalanches so that we don’t let the snow pack build up to be too deep.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Paden says on a day like today, they’ll use more than a thousand pounds of explosives to make the ski area safe. But the job isn’t over when the snow stops falling. The snowpack is constantly changing.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“One day could be perfect powder and then that afternoon the wind can pick up and put wind crust on top of that perfect powder and make it difficult skiing,” says Paden.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Avalanche forecasting is even more technical. “We had a lot of riming in this snow and some graupel events.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To translate that, you have to go inside the snowpack.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On a slope outside of Truckee, Brandon Schwartz uses a shovel to cut a cross-section in the snow. As a forecaster with the non-profit \u003ca href=\"http://www.sierraavalanchecenter.org/\">Sierra Avalanche Center\u003c/a>, Schwartz has dug thousands of avalanche pits like this one.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan class=\"right\">\u003cimg decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2011/02/avalanche.jpg\" alt=\"\" title=\"vernal-pool\" width=\"260\" height=\"320\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-12179\">\u003cem>An avalanche near Echo Summit in Lake Tahoe.\u003cbr>\nCredit: Travis Feist\u003c/em>\u003c/span>“We can feel the different hardness of all the layers that have formed in the snow that’s fallen over the last two to three days,” says Schwartz.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Schwartz is looking for weak layers of snow, which is where avalanches begin. He pulls out a saw and slices through the snow to isolate a one foot wide column. Then he places his shovel on top. “And we’ll just start to load on top of it first with ten taps just from my wrist, just from lifting my wrist and letting gravity pull my hand down.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Those taps simulate what a little weight would do to the snowpack, either from more snow falling or from a skier. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Schwartz points to where the snowpack has broken away along a straight line. “So we got a pretty significant crack all the way across the column here. Definitely a difference in strength there and that’s what makes up the layers of snow pack and when we have these layers of different characteristics then we start to get some of the ingredients for a slab avalanche.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Schwartz and his team travel into the backcountry every day to assess the avalanche danger in the Tahoe region. Of the 36 people who died in avalanches across the United States last winter, almost all of them were in the backcountry. A large storm like this one means today the danger is high.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But what makes some snow weaker than other snow?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Once we have snow on the ground, a whole bunch of really interesting things happen. You think of the snow as being rather static, but it’s not at all,” says Jeff Dozier, an environmental scientist at the University of California-Santa Barbara who studies how snow impacts California’s water supply. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Dozier says to understand what’s happening, you have go all the way down to the level of a snowflake. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Once the snow falls, the snow crystals will start to stick together. As they sit there, the crystals grow rounder and bond together. “And if you shovel snow, you see this. If you shovel snow when it’s new, you can stick the shovel in the snow and you can lift it. You shovel snow when it’s old, it’s hard to break that block of snow loose from its neighbor.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When a lot of snow falls quickly like it does in the Sierras, this bonding process may not happen fast enough to support the snowpack, which leads to avalanches. The warmer a snowpack is, the faster it bonds. But if it’s colder, sometimes a different kind of crystal grows.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Typically the temperature at the base of the snowpack – this is gonna be around zero degrees C. But on a very cold night, the temperature at the surface say might be -20 degrees C,” says Dozier.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That difference in temperature can create another shape of crystal – a faceted crystal. “They’re sort of angular. They don’t bond together very well.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>These crystals look like grains of sugar and they create weak layers deep in the snowpack. A better understanding of snow crystals could help avalanche forecasters. Dozier says it could also help water managers trying to anticipate the snowpack melt in the spring, an event that’s critical to the state’s water supply.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Avalanche forecaster Brandon Schwartz in the field:\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\n\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"560\" height=\"349\" src=\"http://www.youtube.com/embed/zdUJ2KI4EQs?rel=0\" frameborder=\"0\">\u003c/iframe>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp> 38.623317 -122.02352\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Lots of snow means good skiing, but it also means an increased danger of avalanches.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1684974530,"stats":{"hasAudio":true,"hasVideo":true,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":31,"wordCount":971},"headData":{"title":"The Science of Snow | KQED","description":"Lots of snow means good skiing, but it also means an increased danger of avalanches.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"The Science of Snow","datePublished":"2011-02-25T21:56:25.000Z","dateModified":"2023-05-25T00:28:50.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"templateType":"standard","featuredImageType":"standard","excludeFromSiteSearch":"Include","articleAge":"0","path":"/quest/19193/the-science-of-snow","audioUrl":"http://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/quest/2011/02/2011-02-28-quest.mp3","audioDuration":null,"audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003cspan class=\"left\">\u003ca href=\"http://www.kqed.org/quest\">\u003cimg decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2011/02/avalanche300.jpg\" alt=\"\">\u003c/a>\u003cem>\u003c/em>\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s been a harsh winter across the US. Snow has blanketed the Sierra Nevada, where the snowpack is well above normal. Lots of snow means good skiing, but it also means an increased danger of avalanches. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Avalanches aren’t something most skiers and snowboarders have to think about. That’s because ski areas take preventative action.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On the backside of \u003ca href=\"http://www.squaw.com/\">Squaw Valley Ski Resort\u003c/a>, two ski patrollers drop into a black diamond run known as Granite Chief. Below them are mounds of fresh, untouched powder – more than seven feet deep. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The patrollers are throwing explosive charges onto the slopes to trigger smaller, less dangerous avalanches. Booms ring out across the mountain.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c!--more-->\u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv style=\"border-bottom:1px dotted #cecece;height:20px;margin-bottom:10px\"> \u003c/div>\n\u003cp>[jwplayer config=”QUEST Audio Player” skin=”http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/themes/quest/glow.zip” file=”http://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/quest/2011/02/2011-02-28-quest.mp3″ ]\u003cbr>\n\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>Listen to the QUEST radio story \u003cstrong>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/audio/the-science-of-snow\">The Science of Snow\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv style=\"border-bottom:1px dotted #cecece;height:20px;margin-bottom:10px\"> \u003c/div>\n\u003cp>“The Sierras are known for getting tons of snow really quick,” says Will Paden, the avalanche forecaster at Squaw Valley Ski Resort. “We’re constantly trying to start the avalanches so that we don’t let the snow pack build up to be too deep.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Paden says on a day like today, they’ll use more than a thousand pounds of explosives to make the ski area safe. But the job isn’t over when the snow stops falling. The snowpack is constantly changing.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“One day could be perfect powder and then that afternoon the wind can pick up and put wind crust on top of that perfect powder and make it difficult skiing,” says Paden.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Avalanche forecasting is even more technical. “We had a lot of riming in this snow and some graupel events.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To translate that, you have to go inside the snowpack.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On a slope outside of Truckee, Brandon Schwartz uses a shovel to cut a cross-section in the snow. As a forecaster with the non-profit \u003ca href=\"http://www.sierraavalanchecenter.org/\">Sierra Avalanche Center\u003c/a>, Schwartz has dug thousands of avalanche pits like this one.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan class=\"right\">\u003cimg decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2011/02/avalanche.jpg\" alt=\"\" title=\"vernal-pool\" width=\"260\" height=\"320\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-12179\">\u003cem>An avalanche near Echo Summit in Lake Tahoe.\u003cbr>\nCredit: Travis Feist\u003c/em>\u003c/span>“We can feel the different hardness of all the layers that have formed in the snow that’s fallen over the last two to three days,” says Schwartz.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Schwartz is looking for weak layers of snow, which is where avalanches begin. He pulls out a saw and slices through the snow to isolate a one foot wide column. Then he places his shovel on top. “And we’ll just start to load on top of it first with ten taps just from my wrist, just from lifting my wrist and letting gravity pull my hand down.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Those taps simulate what a little weight would do to the snowpack, either from more snow falling or from a skier. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Schwartz points to where the snowpack has broken away along a straight line. “So we got a pretty significant crack all the way across the column here. Definitely a difference in strength there and that’s what makes up the layers of snow pack and when we have these layers of different characteristics then we start to get some of the ingredients for a slab avalanche.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Schwartz and his team travel into the backcountry every day to assess the avalanche danger in the Tahoe region. Of the 36 people who died in avalanches across the United States last winter, almost all of them were in the backcountry. A large storm like this one means today the danger is high.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But what makes some snow weaker than other snow?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Once we have snow on the ground, a whole bunch of really interesting things happen. You think of the snow as being rather static, but it’s not at all,” says Jeff Dozier, an environmental scientist at the University of California-Santa Barbara who studies how snow impacts California’s water supply. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Dozier says to understand what’s happening, you have go all the way down to the level of a snowflake. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Once the snow falls, the snow crystals will start to stick together. As they sit there, the crystals grow rounder and bond together. “And if you shovel snow, you see this. If you shovel snow when it’s new, you can stick the shovel in the snow and you can lift it. You shovel snow when it’s old, it’s hard to break that block of snow loose from its neighbor.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When a lot of snow falls quickly like it does in the Sierras, this bonding process may not happen fast enough to support the snowpack, which leads to avalanches. The warmer a snowpack is, the faster it bonds. But if it’s colder, sometimes a different kind of crystal grows.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Typically the temperature at the base of the snowpack – this is gonna be around zero degrees C. But on a very cold night, the temperature at the surface say might be -20 degrees C,” says Dozier.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That difference in temperature can create another shape of crystal – a faceted crystal. “They’re sort of angular. They don’t bond together very well.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>These crystals look like grains of sugar and they create weak layers deep in the snowpack. A better understanding of snow crystals could help avalanche forecasters. Dozier says it could also help water managers trying to anticipate the snowpack melt in the spring, an event that’s critical to the state’s water supply.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Avalanche forecaster Brandon Schwartz in the field:\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\n\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"560\" height=\"349\" src=\"http://www.youtube.com/embed/zdUJ2KI4EQs?rel=0\" frameborder=\"0\">\u003c/iframe>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp> 38.623317 -122.02352\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/quest/19193/the-science-of-snow","authors":["239"],"categories":["quest_6"],"tags":["quest_1881","quest_13203","quest_3339","quest_2630","quest_2644","quest_2682","quest_3108","quest_3340","quest_19"],"featImg":"quest_12521","label":"quest"}},"programsReducer":{"possible":{"id":"possible","title":"Possible","info":"Possible is hosted by entrepreneur Reid Hoffman and writer Aria Finger. Together in Possible, Hoffman and Finger lead enlightening discussions about building a brighter collective future. The show features interviews with visionary guests like Trevor Noah, Sam Altman and Janette Sadik-Khan. Possible paints an optimistic portrait of the world we can create through science, policy, business, art and our shared humanity. It asks: What if everything goes right for once? How can we get there? 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You can also visit the MindShift website for episodes and supplemental blog posts or tweet us \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/MindShiftKQED\">@MindShiftKQED\u003c/a> or visit us at \u003ca href=\"/mindshift\">MindShift.KQED.org\u003c/a>","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Mindshift-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg","imageAlt":"KQED MindShift: How We Will Learn","officialWebsiteLink":"/mindshift/","meta":{"site":"news","source":"kqed","order":"2"},"link":"/podcasts/mindshift","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/mindshift-podcast/id1078765985","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5tZWdhcGhvbmUuZm0vS1FJTkM1NzY0NjAwNDI5","npr":"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/464615685/mind-shift-podcast","stitcher":"https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/kqed/stories-teachers-share","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/0MxSpNYZKNprFLCl7eEtyx"}},"morning-edition":{"id":"morning-edition","title":"Morning Edition","info":"\u003cem>Morning Edition\u003c/em> takes listeners around the country and the world with multi-faceted stories and commentaries every weekday. 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