The Importance of Studying the History of Sea-Level Change in San Francisco Bay
Producer's Notes: Going UP: Sea Level Rise in San Francisco Bay
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He is fascinated by the dynamic processes that shape our planet and the science of reconstructing ancient landscapes preserved in the geologic record. Brian came to the Bay Area in 2003 and completed a Ph.D. in geology at Stanford University in 2008. He lives in Berkeley with his wife, a high school science teacher, and is currently working as a research scientist in the energy industry. Follow him on \u003ca href=\"http://www.twitter.com/clasticdetritus\">Twitter\u003c/a>.","avatar":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/17c56b6efae79164ca77ee5cb5021bb1?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twitter":null,"facebook":null,"instagram":null,"linkedin":null,"sites":[{"site":"quest","roles":["subscriber"]}],"headData":{"title":"Brian Romans | KQED","description":null,"ogImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/17c56b6efae79164ca77ee5cb5021bb1?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/17c56b6efae79164ca77ee5cb5021bb1?s=600&d=blank&r=g"},"isLoading":false,"link":"/author/brian-romans"},"lindsay-kelliher":{"type":"authors","id":"10206","meta":{"index":"authors_1591205172","id":"10206","found":true},"name":"Lindsay Kelliher","firstName":"Lindsay","lastName":"Kelliher","slug":"lindsay-kelliher","email":"lkelliher@kqed.org","display_author_email":false,"staff_mastheads":[],"title":null,"bio":"Lindsay has been in media in California for more than a decade, dividing her time between San Francisco Bay and Monterey Bay. She has worked on documentary and factual programs for PBS (NOVA and NATURE), National Geographic, Discovery, and Animal Planet. She has also been involved with working and volunteering for local Animal Rescue organizations. She loves her new home with QUEST, letting her combine her love of animals and nature with her science-nerd tendencies. Lindsay graduated with honors from Northwestern’s Radio, TV, and Film department.","avatar":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/58f84d90c37fac0580527a0cb97d2cc3?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twitter":null,"facebook":null,"instagram":null,"linkedin":null,"sites":[{"site":"quest","roles":["subscriber"]}],"headData":{"title":"Lindsay Kelliher | KQED","description":null,"ogImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/58f84d90c37fac0580527a0cb97d2cc3?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/58f84d90c37fac0580527a0cb97d2cc3?s=600&d=blank&r=g"},"isLoading":false,"link":"/author/lindsay-kelliher"}},"breakingNewsReducer":{},"campaignFinanceReducer":{},"firebase":{"requesting":{},"requested":{},"timestamps":{},"data":{},"ordered":{},"auth":{"isLoaded":false,"isEmpty":true},"authError":null,"profile":{"isLoaded":false,"isEmpty":true},"listeners":{"byId":{},"allIds":[]},"isInitializing":false,"errors":[]},"navBarReducer":{"navBarId":"home","fullView":true,"showPlayer":false},"navMenuReducer":{"menus":[{"key":"menu1","items":[{"name":"News","link":"/","type":"title"},{"name":"Politics","link":"/politics"},{"name":"Science","link":"/science"},{"name":"Education","link":"/educationnews"},{"name":"Housing","link":"/housing"},{"name":"Immigration","link":"/immigration"},{"name":"Criminal Justice","link":"/criminaljustice"},{"name":"Silicon Valley","link":"/siliconvalley"},{"name":"Forum","link":"/forum"},{"name":"The California Report","link":"/californiareport"}]},{"key":"menu2","items":[{"name":"Arts & Culture","link":"/arts","type":"title"},{"name":"Critics’ Picks","link":"/thedolist"},{"name":"Cultural Commentary","link":"/artscommentary"},{"name":"Food & Drink","link":"/food"},{"name":"Bay Area Hip-Hop","link":"/bayareahiphop"},{"name":"Rebel Girls","link":"/rebelgirls"},{"name":"Arts Video","link":"/artsvideos"}]},{"key":"menu3","items":[{"name":"Podcasts","link":"/podcasts","type":"title"},{"name":"Bay Curious","link":"/podcasts/baycurious"},{"name":"Rightnowish","link":"/podcasts/rightnowish"},{"name":"The Bay","link":"/podcasts/thebay"},{"name":"On Our Watch","link":"/podcasts/onourwatch"},{"name":"Mindshift","link":"/podcasts/mindshift"},{"name":"Consider This","link":"/podcasts/considerthis"},{"name":"Political Breakdown","link":"/podcasts/politicalbreakdown"}]},{"key":"menu4","items":[{"name":"Live Radio","link":"/radio","type":"title"},{"name":"TV","link":"/tv","type":"title"},{"name":"Events","link":"/events","type":"title"},{"name":"For Educators","link":"/education","type":"title"},{"name":"Support KQED","link":"/support","type":"title"},{"name":"About","link":"/about","type":"title"},{"name":"Help Center","link":"https://kqed-helpcenter.kqed.org/s","type":"title"}]}]},"pagesReducer":{},"postsReducer":{"stream_live":{"type":"live","id":"stream_live","audioUrl":"https://streams.kqed.org/kqedradio","title":"Live Stream","excerpt":"Live Stream information currently unavailable.","link":"/radio","featImg":"","label":{"name":"KQED Live","link":"/"}},"stream_kqedNewscast":{"type":"posts","id":"stream_kqedNewscast","audioUrl":"https://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/RDnews/newscast.mp3?_=1","title":"KQED Newscast","featImg":"","label":{"name":"88.5 FM","link":"/"}},"quest_7788":{"type":"posts","id":"quest_7788","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"quest","id":"7788","score":null,"sort":[1283446236000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"the-importance-of-studying-the-history-of-sea-level-change-in-san-francisco-bay","title":"The Importance of Studying the History of Sea-Level Change in San Francisco Bay","publishDate":1283446236,"format":"standard","headTitle":"QUEST | KQED Science","labelTerm":{"term":3359,"site":"quest"},"content":"\u003cp>\u003cspan class=\"left\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/SL-rise-header1.jpg\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2010/08/SL-rise-header1.jpg\" alt=\"\">\u003c/a>\u003cem>Topographic image of the Bay Area and continental shelf and slope. The coastline during the peak of the last ice age was at the shelf edge near the Farrallon Islands.\u003c/em>\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Before reading this post, make sure to check out QUEST’s video segment from last week about \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/video/going-up-sea-level-rise-in-san-francisco-bay\">sea-level rise in the San Francisco Bay\u003c/a>, which provides a nice overview of the problem low-lying areas in the greater Bay Area will face in the coming decades. As good as it is, the QUEST piece is really just an introduction to the problem of current sea-level rise. Sea-level rise \u003ca href=\"http://www.ipcc.unibe.ch/publications/wg1-ar4/faq/wg1_faq-5.1.html\">is happening\u003c/a> and more than \u003ca href=\"http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2007EO090001.shtml\">100 million people could be affected\u003c/a> globally over the next century even under somewhat conservative projections. This is an tremendously complex problem that will require research across numerous scientific disciplines and creative problem-solving from engineers and urban planners. Like many of the posts I write for QUEST, I’d like to zoom out in terms of the timescales we are used to thinking about and share a little information about geologically recent sea-level changes in the Bay Area.\u003cbr>\n\u003c!--more-->\u003cbr>\nOver the past few million years, the Earth has flipped back and forth about 20 times between periods of significant continental glaciation, or ice ages, and briefer periods of much less ice. The peak of the most recent ice age was approximately 18,000 years ago. During this time, referred to as the Last Glacial Maximum by Earth scientists, the continental ice sheets that covered much of \u003ca href=\"http://www.isgs.illinois.edu/maps-data-pub/publications/geonotes/geonote3.shtml\">northern North America\u003c/a> and northern Europe reached their largest extent in area. When such vast continental ice sheets grow they “borrow” water from the Earth’s water budget and, as a result, global sea level is lowered. Only 18,000 years ago sea level was 120 meters (400 ft) lower than it is at present.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/SL-rise_Ingram-LGM-map.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7790\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2010/08/SL-rise_Ingram-LGM-map.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"590\" height=\"459\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The map above is a simple sketch map of the paleogeography of the Bay Area at this time*. Think about this for a moment — if you were standing at \u003ca href=\"http://www.parksconservancy.org/visit/park-sites/lands-end.html\">Land’s End Park\u003c/a> on the northwest corner of San Francisco you would not be at the land’s end! The coast would be about 20 miles offshore of the current coast, just beyond the uplands that are now poking out as the Farallon Islands. What is now the Bay was a network of flat valleys with the ancestral Sacramento-San Joaquin River and tributary streams making their way through the narrow notch in the hills at Golden Gate. As temperatures warmed and the continental ice sheets began to melt sea level started to rise. That’s a simplified picture of what the landscape may have looked like at different stands of sea level, but what about the rate at which the sea rose?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"http://www.pacinst.org/\">Pacific Institute\u003c/a>, a nonprofit research institute based in Oakland, published a thoroughly researched and very readable \u003ca href=\"http://www.pacinst.org/reports/sea_level_rise/\">report on sea-level rise and its impact on the California coast\u003c/a>, which is also featured in the QUEST report. Estimates of future sea-level rise as stated in their report are between 1.0 and 1.4 meters (40-55 inches) by the year 2100. To be conservative (and to simplify a bit) let’s assume this present rate of sea-level rise is 1 meter per 100 years. If we now look at a reconstruction of sea-level changes since the Last Glacial Maximum we see the rise in sea level was not constant — depending on the rate of warming along with other factors the rate of rise varied. As you can see in the graph below the rate of rise slowed significantly about 8,000 years ago. From 18,000 years ago to 8,000 years ago sea-level rose approximately 100 meters (330 ft), which is an average rate of 1 meter per 100 years. In other words, the Earth will soon be experiencing a rate of sea-level rise it hasn’t experienced in several thousand years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Post-Glacial_Sea_Level.png\">\u003cimg class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7791\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2010/08/SL-rise_curve-since-LGM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"526\" height=\"359\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The most important uncertainties regarding our understanding of current and near-term sea-level rise are magnitude and rate — that is, how much and how fast. By studying the relatively recent past (geologically speaking) we can learn something about the effects varying rates of sea-level rise might have on the Bay Area. For example, how did bayshore ecosystems respond to rapid sea-level rise thousands of years ago? How will tidal marsh ecosystems respond to slow versus rapid sea-level change? The map below from the \u003ca href=\"http://www.sfei.org/\">San Francisco Estuary Institute\u003c/a> shows the different types low-lying bay shoreline that will be affected by future sea-level rise.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/SL-rise_Bay-current.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7792\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2010/08/SL-rise_Bay-current.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"516\" height=\"671\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>These environments, some of which are entirely human-made, will respond differently to sea-level rise. Further study of past environments and ecosystems and how they were affected by sea-level rise since the last ice age will play an important role in the broader goal to mitigate the consequences of a rising San Francisco Bay.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"color: #ffffff\">-\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"color: #ff0000\">\u003cstrong>UPDATE (9/2/2010):\u003c/strong>\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Also check out \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/video/ice-age-bay-area2\">this great video piece\u003c/a> from QUEST a couple years ago to help you visualize what the Bay Area landscape was like 20,000 years ago and the kinds of animals that lived here. Definitely worth a look.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"color: #ffffff\">-\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>* \u003cspan style=\"color: #808080\">\u003cem>Check out this fantastic slide show from UC Berkeley Earth scientist Lynn Ingram \u003ca href=\"http://www.lib.berkeley.edu/WRCA/pdfs/ccow_Ingram.pdf\">here\u003c/a> (link opens a PDF). This is a great resource for learning more about the information scientists are collecting from the Bay’s sedimentary record to answer some of the questions I pose above.\u003c/em>\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp> 37.7749295 -122.4194155\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Sea-level rise is happening and more than 100 million people could be affected globally over the next century even under somewhat conservative projections.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1311703220,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":17,"wordCount":935},"headData":{"title":"The Importance of Studying the History of Sea-Level Change in San Francisco Bay | KQED","description":"","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"The Importance of Studying the History of Sea-Level Change in San Francisco Bay","datePublished":"2010-09-02T16:50:36.000Z","dateModified":"2011-07-26T18:00:20.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"disqusIdentifier":"7788 http://www.kqed.org/quest/blog/?p=7788","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2010/09/02/the-importance-of-studying-the-history-of-sea-level-change-in-san-francisco-bay/","disqusTitle":"The Importance of Studying the History of Sea-Level Change in San Francisco Bay","path":"/quest/7788/the-importance-of-studying-the-history-of-sea-level-change-in-san-francisco-bay","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003cspan class=\"left\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/SL-rise-header1.jpg\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2010/08/SL-rise-header1.jpg\" alt=\"\">\u003c/a>\u003cem>Topographic image of the Bay Area and continental shelf and slope. The coastline during the peak of the last ice age was at the shelf edge near the Farrallon Islands.\u003c/em>\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Before reading this post, make sure to check out QUEST’s video segment from last week about \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/video/going-up-sea-level-rise-in-san-francisco-bay\">sea-level rise in the San Francisco Bay\u003c/a>, which provides a nice overview of the problem low-lying areas in the greater Bay Area will face in the coming decades. As good as it is, the QUEST piece is really just an introduction to the problem of current sea-level rise. Sea-level rise \u003ca href=\"http://www.ipcc.unibe.ch/publications/wg1-ar4/faq/wg1_faq-5.1.html\">is happening\u003c/a> and more than \u003ca href=\"http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2007EO090001.shtml\">100 million people could be affected\u003c/a> globally over the next century even under somewhat conservative projections. This is an tremendously complex problem that will require research across numerous scientific disciplines and creative problem-solving from engineers and urban planners. Like many of the posts I write for QUEST, I’d like to zoom out in terms of the timescales we are used to thinking about and share a little information about geologically recent sea-level changes in the Bay Area.\u003cbr>\n\u003c!--more-->\u003cbr>\nOver the past few million years, the Earth has flipped back and forth about 20 times between periods of significant continental glaciation, or ice ages, and briefer periods of much less ice. The peak of the most recent ice age was approximately 18,000 years ago. During this time, referred to as the Last Glacial Maximum by Earth scientists, the continental ice sheets that covered much of \u003ca href=\"http://www.isgs.illinois.edu/maps-data-pub/publications/geonotes/geonote3.shtml\">northern North America\u003c/a> and northern Europe reached their largest extent in area. When such vast continental ice sheets grow they “borrow” water from the Earth’s water budget and, as a result, global sea level is lowered. Only 18,000 years ago sea level was 120 meters (400 ft) lower than it is at present.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/SL-rise_Ingram-LGM-map.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7790\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2010/08/SL-rise_Ingram-LGM-map.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"590\" height=\"459\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The map above is a simple sketch map of the paleogeography of the Bay Area at this time*. Think about this for a moment — if you were standing at \u003ca href=\"http://www.parksconservancy.org/visit/park-sites/lands-end.html\">Land’s End Park\u003c/a> on the northwest corner of San Francisco you would not be at the land’s end! The coast would be about 20 miles offshore of the current coast, just beyond the uplands that are now poking out as the Farallon Islands. What is now the Bay was a network of flat valleys with the ancestral Sacramento-San Joaquin River and tributary streams making their way through the narrow notch in the hills at Golden Gate. As temperatures warmed and the continental ice sheets began to melt sea level started to rise. That’s a simplified picture of what the landscape may have looked like at different stands of sea level, but what about the rate at which the sea rose?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"http://www.pacinst.org/\">Pacific Institute\u003c/a>, a nonprofit research institute based in Oakland, published a thoroughly researched and very readable \u003ca href=\"http://www.pacinst.org/reports/sea_level_rise/\">report on sea-level rise and its impact on the California coast\u003c/a>, which is also featured in the QUEST report. Estimates of future sea-level rise as stated in their report are between 1.0 and 1.4 meters (40-55 inches) by the year 2100. To be conservative (and to simplify a bit) let’s assume this present rate of sea-level rise is 1 meter per 100 years. If we now look at a reconstruction of sea-level changes since the Last Glacial Maximum we see the rise in sea level was not constant — depending on the rate of warming along with other factors the rate of rise varied. As you can see in the graph below the rate of rise slowed significantly about 8,000 years ago. From 18,000 years ago to 8,000 years ago sea-level rose approximately 100 meters (330 ft), which is an average rate of 1 meter per 100 years. In other words, the Earth will soon be experiencing a rate of sea-level rise it hasn’t experienced in several thousand years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Post-Glacial_Sea_Level.png\">\u003cimg class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7791\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2010/08/SL-rise_curve-since-LGM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"526\" height=\"359\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The most important uncertainties regarding our understanding of current and near-term sea-level rise are magnitude and rate — that is, how much and how fast. By studying the relatively recent past (geologically speaking) we can learn something about the effects varying rates of sea-level rise might have on the Bay Area. For example, how did bayshore ecosystems respond to rapid sea-level rise thousands of years ago? How will tidal marsh ecosystems respond to slow versus rapid sea-level change? The map below from the \u003ca href=\"http://www.sfei.org/\">San Francisco Estuary Institute\u003c/a> shows the different types low-lying bay shoreline that will be affected by future sea-level rise.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/SL-rise_Bay-current.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7792\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2010/08/SL-rise_Bay-current.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"516\" height=\"671\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>These environments, some of which are entirely human-made, will respond differently to sea-level rise. Further study of past environments and ecosystems and how they were affected by sea-level rise since the last ice age will play an important role in the broader goal to mitigate the consequences of a rising San Francisco Bay.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"color: #ffffff\">-\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"color: #ff0000\">\u003cstrong>UPDATE (9/2/2010):\u003c/strong>\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Also check out \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/video/ice-age-bay-area2\">this great video piece\u003c/a> from QUEST a couple years ago to help you visualize what the Bay Area landscape was like 20,000 years ago and the kinds of animals that lived here. Definitely worth a look.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"color: #ffffff\">-\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>* \u003cspan style=\"color: #808080\">\u003cem>Check out this fantastic slide show from UC Berkeley Earth scientist Lynn Ingram \u003ca href=\"http://www.lib.berkeley.edu/WRCA/pdfs/ccow_Ingram.pdf\">here\u003c/a> (link opens a PDF). This is a great resource for learning more about the information scientists are collecting from the Bay’s sedimentary record to answer some of the questions I pose above.\u003c/em>\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp> 37.7749295 -122.4194155\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/quest/7788/the-importance-of-studying-the-history-of-sea-level-change-in-san-francisco-bay","authors":["10171"],"categories":["quest_6","quest_11"],"tags":["quest_13195","quest_621","quest_13200","quest_2045","quest_2559","quest_2603","quest_3108"],"collections":["quest_3359"],"label":"quest_3359"},"quest_7522":{"type":"posts","id":"quest_7522","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"quest","id":"7522","score":null,"sort":[1282674734000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"producers-notes-sea-level-rise","title":"Producer's Notes: Going UP: Sea Level Rise in San Francisco Bay","publishDate":1282674734,"format":"video","headTitle":"QUEST | KQED Science","labelTerm":{"site":"quest"},"content":"\u003cp>There is no question that sea levels have been steadily rising, and will continue to rise at an increased rate in the future. So the real question is not, “Will it rise?” but, \"How MUCH will it rise, and what can we do about it?”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The sea is rising. This, in itself, is not news. The oceans of Earth have been slowly, steadily rising for hundreds of years. But it’s about to get a lot higher a lot faster, and millions of people - and billions of dollars of infrastructure - are suddenly finding themselves at risk for flooding, storm surge damage, and possible relocation. How could something that has been a known factor surprise us, unprepared?\u003cbr>\n\u003c!--more-->\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meet Sea Level Rise, the new poster child for climate change. There is no question that sea levels have been steadily rising, and will continue to rise at an increased rate in the future. So the real question is not, “Will it rise?” but, \"How MUCH will it rise, and what can we do about it?”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As we were just starting research for this story, I attended the \u003ca href=\"http://www.bayplanningcoalition.org/2010/dmc-2010-resource-guide/\">SF Bay Decision Maker’s Conference on Sea Level Change\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\nThere was one idea that permeated the entire day’s discussions:\n\u003cli>You can’t engineer for an unknown amount.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Developers are aware of sea level rise, but do not know how to approach the issue. “Tell how much it will rise, and by when, and we can plan for it.”\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003cp>Of course, it’s just not that straightforward. The science behind the estimates seems to be uncertain, providing ranges from as little as 12 inches by 2050, to as much as 80 inches by 2100. There is a consensus that the rate of sea level rise has increased in conjunction with the rise of global surface temperatures. The point of uncertainty is what the rate of sea level rise will be in the future. In 2007, German scientist Stefan Rahmstorf developed an empirical method for predicting future sea level rise using the relationship between sea level rise and global mean surface temperature. His estimates of global sea level rise by 2100 range from 10 inches (50 cm) to 55 inches (140 cm) respectively. Research estimates done for the Governor of California state that sea level will increase between 12 and 17 inches (30 and 45 cm) by 2050 and between 20 and 55 inches (50 and 140 cm) by 2099.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Most estimates show a wide range, depending on how much glaciers and ice caps melt over the next 90 years. The truth is that scientists don’t know how much other environmental factors will contribute to, or slow down, the rate of sea level rise. In addition, these are global estimates, which are averages and will not represent the exact numbers for specific locations. How much the sea level rises here in San Francisco Bay will not look the same as it will in Bangladesh.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The one thing scientists do agree on, however, is that sea level rise up to 2 meters (78 inches) is not out of the question, but certainly a high estimate. \"Although increases of up to two metres this century can't be ruled out, this does not mean that they are inevitable or even likely.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And so we return to the question, “What should we do about it?” The truth is, we just aren’t sure yet. What we \u003cem>do\u003c/em> know are the factors that contribute to the acceleration of sea level rise. Most scientists will tell you that, before we can fix the problem, we first need to stop the cause. Otherwise, we’ll never get ahead our heads (and our buildings!) above the water line.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Peter Gleick, President of the \u003ca href=\"http://pacinst.org/\">Pacific Institute\u003c/a> in Oakland, tells us “the good news is that there’s a lot that we could if we’re smart enough to do it in advance. There are a lot of things that we could do to reduce the risks of climate change and sea level rise around the Bay. The first thing we need to do is reduce the severity of climate change. And that’s an issue of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, that’s got to be done at the national level. We’re doing a little bit of it at the California level. It needs to be done at the global level. But whether or not the politicians get their act together and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, we’re still going to have to deal with some sea level rise. That’s built into the gases we’ve already put into the atmosphere…But where we get to at the end of the century is going to depend on actions that California or the United States or ultimately the whole globe takes to reduce the rate of greenhouse gas emissions, to reduce the rate of climate change. If we don’t get our act together, if we don’t do things to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, we’re gonna reach a meter of sea level rise or more by the end of the century. And it’s gonna be growing even faster than it is now. But if for some reason we’re able to get a handle on emissions and the world is able to come together, we could slow that rate enormously, and limit the rate of sea level rise to hopefully only a few tens of centimeters. I don't think we’ll be that lucky, but that’s a possibility.”\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"There is no question that sea levels have been steadily rising, and will continue to rise at an increased rate in the future. So the real question is not, \"Will it rise?\" but, \"How MUCH will it rise, and what can we do about it?\"","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1457640837,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":11,"wordCount":972},"headData":{"title":"Producer's Notes: Going UP: Sea Level Rise in San Francisco Bay | KQED","description":"There is no question that sea levels have been steadily rising, and will continue to rise at an increased rate in the future. So the real question is not, "Will it rise?" but, "How MUCH will it rise, and what can we do about it?"","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"Producer's Notes: Going UP: Sea Level Rise in San Francisco Bay","datePublished":"2010-08-24T18:32:14.000Z","dateModified":"2016-03-10T20:13:57.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"disqusIdentifier":"7522 http://www.kqed.org/quest/blog/2010/08/24/producers-notes-sea-level-rise/","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2010/08/24/producers-notes-sea-level-rise/","disqusTitle":"Producer's Notes: Going UP: Sea Level Rise in San Francisco Bay","videoEmbed":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LDv021_zW-E","path":"/quest/7522/producers-notes-sea-level-rise","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>There is no question that sea levels have been steadily rising, and will continue to rise at an increased rate in the future. So the real question is not, “Will it rise?” but, \"How MUCH will it rise, and what can we do about it?”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The sea is rising. This, in itself, is not news. The oceans of Earth have been slowly, steadily rising for hundreds of years. But it’s about to get a lot higher a lot faster, and millions of people - and billions of dollars of infrastructure - are suddenly finding themselves at risk for flooding, storm surge damage, and possible relocation. How could something that has been a known factor surprise us, unprepared?\u003cbr>\n\u003c!--more-->\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meet Sea Level Rise, the new poster child for climate change. There is no question that sea levels have been steadily rising, and will continue to rise at an increased rate in the future. So the real question is not, “Will it rise?” but, \"How MUCH will it rise, and what can we do about it?”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As we were just starting research for this story, I attended the \u003ca href=\"http://www.bayplanningcoalition.org/2010/dmc-2010-resource-guide/\">SF Bay Decision Maker’s Conference on Sea Level Change\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\nThere was one idea that permeated the entire day’s discussions:\n\u003cli>You can’t engineer for an unknown amount.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Developers are aware of sea level rise, but do not know how to approach the issue. “Tell how much it will rise, and by when, and we can plan for it.”\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003cp>Of course, it’s just not that straightforward. The science behind the estimates seems to be uncertain, providing ranges from as little as 12 inches by 2050, to as much as 80 inches by 2100. There is a consensus that the rate of sea level rise has increased in conjunction with the rise of global surface temperatures. The point of uncertainty is what the rate of sea level rise will be in the future. In 2007, German scientist Stefan Rahmstorf developed an empirical method for predicting future sea level rise using the relationship between sea level rise and global mean surface temperature. His estimates of global sea level rise by 2100 range from 10 inches (50 cm) to 55 inches (140 cm) respectively. Research estimates done for the Governor of California state that sea level will increase between 12 and 17 inches (30 and 45 cm) by 2050 and between 20 and 55 inches (50 and 140 cm) by 2099.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Most estimates show a wide range, depending on how much glaciers and ice caps melt over the next 90 years. The truth is that scientists don’t know how much other environmental factors will contribute to, or slow down, the rate of sea level rise. In addition, these are global estimates, which are averages and will not represent the exact numbers for specific locations. How much the sea level rises here in San Francisco Bay will not look the same as it will in Bangladesh.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The one thing scientists do agree on, however, is that sea level rise up to 2 meters (78 inches) is not out of the question, but certainly a high estimate. \"Although increases of up to two metres this century can't be ruled out, this does not mean that they are inevitable or even likely.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And so we return to the question, “What should we do about it?” The truth is, we just aren’t sure yet. What we \u003cem>do\u003c/em> know are the factors that contribute to the acceleration of sea level rise. Most scientists will tell you that, before we can fix the problem, we first need to stop the cause. Otherwise, we’ll never get ahead our heads (and our buildings!) above the water line.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Peter Gleick, President of the \u003ca href=\"http://pacinst.org/\">Pacific Institute\u003c/a> in Oakland, tells us “the good news is that there’s a lot that we could if we’re smart enough to do it in advance. There are a lot of things that we could do to reduce the risks of climate change and sea level rise around the Bay. The first thing we need to do is reduce the severity of climate change. And that’s an issue of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, that’s got to be done at the national level. We’re doing a little bit of it at the California level. It needs to be done at the global level. But whether or not the politicians get their act together and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, we’re still going to have to deal with some sea level rise. That’s built into the gases we’ve already put into the atmosphere…But where we get to at the end of the century is going to depend on actions that California or the United States or ultimately the whole globe takes to reduce the rate of greenhouse gas emissions, to reduce the rate of climate change. If we don’t get our act together, if we don’t do things to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, we’re gonna reach a meter of sea level rise or more by the end of the century. And it’s gonna be growing even faster than it is now. But if for some reason we’re able to get a handle on emissions and the world is able to come together, we could slow that rate enormously, and limit the rate of sea level rise to hopefully only a few tens of centimeters. I don't think we’ll be that lucky, but that’s a possibility.”\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/quest/7522/producers-notes-sea-level-rise","authors":["10206"],"categories":["quest_6","quest_9","quest_3422","quest_3233"],"tags":["quest_131","quest_621","quest_797","quest_924","quest_1115","quest_1319","quest_1891","quest_2041","quest_2043","quest_2491","quest_2559","quest_2603","quest_2805","quest_2893","quest_2925","quest_2940","quest_2989"],"label":"quest"}},"programsReducer":{"possible":{"id":"possible","title":"Possible","info":"Possible is hosted by entrepreneur Reid Hoffman and writer Aria Finger. Together in Possible, Hoffman and Finger lead enlightening discussions about building a brighter collective future. The show features interviews with visionary guests like Trevor Noah, Sam Altman and Janette Sadik-Khan. Possible paints an optimistic portrait of the world we can create through science, policy, business, art and our shared humanity. It asks: What if everything goes right for once? How can we get there? Each episode also includes a short fiction story generated by advanced AI GPT-4, serving as a thought-provoking springboard to speculate how humanity could leverage technology for good.","airtime":"SUN 2pm","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Possible-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.possible.fm/","meta":{"site":"news","source":"Possible"},"link":"/radio/program/possible","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/possible/id1677184070","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/730YpdUSNlMyPQwNnyjp4k"}},"1a":{"id":"1a","title":"1A","info":"1A is home to the national conversation. 1A brings on great guests and frames the best debate in ways that make you think, share and engage.","airtime":"MON-THU 11pm-12am","imageSrc":"https://ww2.kqed.org/radio/wp-content/uploads/sites/50/2018/04/1a.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://the1a.org/","meta":{"site":"news","source":"npr"},"link":"/radio/program/1a","subscribe":{"npr":"https://rpb3r.app.goo.gl/RBrW","apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wa/viewPodcast?s=143441&mt=2&id=1188724250&at=11l79Y&ct=nprdirectory","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/1A-p947376/","rss":"https://feeds.npr.org/510316/podcast.xml"}},"all-things-considered":{"id":"all-things-considered","title":"All Things Considered","info":"Every weekday, \u003cem>All Things Considered\u003c/em> hosts Robert Siegel, Audie Cornish, Ari Shapiro, and Kelly McEvers present the program's trademark mix of news, interviews, commentaries, reviews, and offbeat features. 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And you join us on the journey to find the answers.","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Bay-Curious-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg","imageAlt":"\"KQED Bay Curious","officialWebsiteLink":"/news/series/baycurious","meta":{"site":"news","source":"kqed","order":"4"},"link":"/podcasts/baycurious","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bay-curious/id1172473406","npr":"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/500557090/bay-curious","rss":"https://ww2.kqed.org/news/category/bay-curious-podcast/feed/podcast","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly93dzIua3FlZC5vcmcvbmV3cy9jYXRlZ29yeS9iYXktY3VyaW91cy1wb2RjYXN0L2ZlZWQvcG9kY2FzdA","stitcher":"https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/kqed/bay-curious","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/6O76IdmhixfijmhTZLIJ8k"}},"bbc-world-service":{"id":"bbc-world-service","title":"BBC World Service","info":"The day's top stories from BBC News compiled twice daily in the week, once at weekends.","airtime":"MON-FRI 9pm-10pm, TUE-FRI 1am-2am","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/BBC-World-Service-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/live:bbc_world_service","meta":{"site":"news","source":"BBC World Service"},"link":"/radio/program/bbc-world-service","subscribe":{"apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/global-news-podcast/id135067274?mt=2","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/BBC-World-Service-p455581/","rss":"https://podcasts.files.bbci.co.uk/p02nq0gn.rss"}},"code-switch-life-kit":{"id":"code-switch-life-kit","title":"Code Switch / Life Kit","info":"\u003cem>Code Switch\u003c/em>, which listeners will hear in the first part of the hour, has fearless and much-needed conversations about race. Hosted by journalists of color, the show tackles the subject of race head-on, exploring how it impacts every part of society — from politics and pop culture to history, sports and more.\u003cbr />\u003cbr />\u003cem>Life Kit\u003c/em>, which will be in the second part of the hour, guides you through spaces and feelings no one prepares you for — from finances to mental health, from workplace microaggressions to imposter syndrome, from relationships to parenting. The show features experts with real world experience and shares their knowledge. Because everyone needs a little help being human.\u003cbr />\u003cbr />\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/510312/codeswitch\">\u003cem>Code Switch\u003c/em> offical site and podcast\u003c/a>\u003cbr />\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/lifekit\">\u003cem>Life Kit\u003c/em> offical site and podcast\u003c/a>\u003cbr />","airtime":"SUN 9pm-10pm","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Code-Switch-Life-Kit-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","meta":{"site":"radio","source":"npr"},"link":"/radio/program/code-switch-life-kit","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/1112190608?mt=2&at=11l79Y&ct=nprdirectory","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnByLm9yZy9yc3MvcG9kY2FzdC5waHA_aWQ9NTEwMzEy","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/3bExJ9JQpkwNhoHvaIIuyV","rss":"https://feeds.npr.org/510312/podcast.xml"}},"commonwealth-club":{"id":"commonwealth-club","title":"Commonwealth Club of California Podcast","info":"The Commonwealth Club of California is the nation's oldest and largest public affairs forum. 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