The Bay Bridge upgrade is part of the Bay Area's response to future earthquakes. Preparedness in your home is just as essential, and not half as complicated. Photo courtesy Todd Lappin under Creative Commons license

I've talked about some of the science related to earthquakes here on KQED, things like shake-table studies and triggered creep and long earthquake cycles. And I've introduced some of the Bay Area's earthquake-producing faults like the San Andreas fault (here), the Hayward fault (here and here), the San Gregorio fault (here and here) and the Green Valley fault (here). I've showed you some ways to friend your local fault on your own, too.

But talking about all this cool fun science is circling around something that's more urgent: earthquakes are on their way, wherever you live in the Bay Area. And by preparing in advance for these earthquakes, you can save a whole lot of trouble for yourself, your family and your neighborhood.

I know all this; I've known it and written about it for years. But I shy away from the implications, like a lot of people, and as a result I haven't done much serious preparation. Truth be told, I'm kind of paralyzed at the prospect.

There are people out there who understand this resistance to action. They are being as creative as they know how in a sincere effort to draw us into doing the right things. What works?

Before I go there, I can tell you what has and hasn't worked for me:

1. The authorities tell us that a big, damaging earthquake is a certainty (over 99 percent) in the next 30 years in California. (My instinctive, self-justifying response is, "Fine, the Big One will be down south.")

2. They tell us that a big, damaging earthquake has 2-to-1 odds of happening in the Bay Area in the next 30 years. (Yeah, the epicenter will most likely be somewhere else and not this year either.)

3. They tell us that damaging shaking from that big quake will affect my area. The scenarios show that problems from the quake will affect my area's infrastructure, its traffic, its economy. (Well . . . that's hard to ignore.)

4. Recent, realistic simulations show that the experience will be scary and challenging under the best of circumstances. (Imagining this keeps me awake sometimes.)

5. You insure yourself against sudden death, illness and car crashes, don't you, so why not treat earthquakes the same way? (Um, O.K.)

Nevertheless, all that feels more like being harangued than being helped. Can earthquake preparation be easy instead? Or failing that, can it be simple?

Would you settle for orderly? That is definitely doable. Some things come before other things, and those sincere, creative people have sorted them out in a program called Seven Steps to Earthquake Safety. That turns the daunting mountain of earthquake preparedness into a path, with one step at a time. For instance, step 1 is "Secure it now!" That sounds like something with a beginning and an end; like something I could incorporate into my routine, one errand at a time, a small new item in the family-meeting agenda and the household budget. That sounds like something I can actually manage. And once it's done, step 2——but let's not get ahead of ourselves; that's how the paralysis started.

There is coaching available, too. At least I think of it that way. A creative team at TotallyUnprepared.com has a growing set of stories and demonstrations of the small, ordinary things that make up "securing it now." There's a lovely set of videos answering the simple question, Will it shake? The newest one tests a snowglobe collection. Of course it will shake; you know that; but it still helps to see it shake. The how-to section covers lots of specific problems, from securing refrigerators to getting earthquake insurance. You can even sign up for a regular email message from the Totally Unprepared team with tips and encouragement. Links from Totally Unprepared go to lots of good background info. It seems like just the place to bookmark and, dare I say it, make part of a New Year's resolution.

^{The tsunami of March 11 broke docks and damaged boats in Santa Cruz Harbor. Most earthquake-generated tsunamis in this part of California will cause similar levels of damage. Photo courtesy Sequoia Hughes of Flickr under Creative Commons license.}

Last week the Bay Area got a tiny taste of Japan's seismic disaster when tsunami waves stirred our waters, a giant agitating the San Francisco Bay and coast with a flick of its pinky. The waves we saw overwhelming the east coast of Honshu were attenuated to small surges here at the opposite side of the Pacific Ocean.

In central California, we will always have good warning of these big seismic tsunamis because they are not created nearby. Our tectonic setting is not conducive to Japan or Sumatra-style tsunamis. But I said seismic tsunamis, the ones that earthquakes cause. There are two other kinds that mean you should always practice tsunami awareness when you're at the beach. And National Tsunami Awareness Week, scheduled by purest coincidence for next week, is a good occasion to train yourself and your family.

Standard tsunami awareness is pretty simple, simple enough to put on a sign that says, "In case of earthquake, go to high ground or inland."

_{Photo courtesy Bruce Manchon, all rights reserved}

That refers to an earthquake that you feel, not one you hear about on the radio. I can be a little more specific. Don't worry about small earthquakes, namely the short, sharp shocks we feel often around here. Worry about a long-lasting earthquake, one with slow rhythms. If one of those happens while you're at the beach, look—you want to leave anyway, because a large earthquake like that may mean trouble at home. If the sea starts acting strange, do what the sign says, period. Otherwise, follow your usual earthquake protocol: Get away without dawdling, drive warily with your radio on, remember your family plan, use your phone no more than absolutely necessary.

The tsunamis that arrive from distant quakes, or teletsunamis, come with several hours of warning. The nearest earthquake faults that could send a damaging tsunami our way—subduction zones—are off northernmost California, part of the Cascadia seismic zone that stretches up the Oregon and Washington coast into Canada. A tsunami arising from a magnitude-8 or larger event up there would arrive here at least a couple hours later. Tsunamis from major earthquakes in Alaska, far eastern Russia, Japan and the Philippines will give us much longer warning times. There are enough people on a typical beach, with phones and text devices and radios, that you should be able to count on sufficient warning even for a Cascadia event. In addition, local emergency responders will be out in person to warn beachgoers. (If you're on the beach alone, be more alert.)

If you hear about an approaching tsunami, I must advise you: don't be irresponsible and rush to the beach. We're all intrigued by geological phenomena, and every red-blooded geologist has "witness a tsunami" on his or her geological bucket list. But remember the person taking pictures at Crescent City (a town also ravaged by a tsunami from the 1964 Alaska earthquake) who was washed out to sea. Think about the surfers who wandered around Santa Cruz Harbor, risking themselves and worrying others, as the waters rushed in and out.

However, if you choose to ignore my advice, then you should do as I wish I could have done, and proceed in a responsible manner to a safe place high above the water, obeying authorities, not congesting emergency escape routes, prepared for the worst. UC Santa Cruz geologist Christie Rowe did that and recorded the tsunami's arrival. She adds, "I would advise people not to panic, to check the West Coast Tsunami Warning Center website and select a vantage point well above the predicted wave height."

But not every tsunami is a seismic tsunami. Two other kinds of tsunamis, not monitored by dedicated networks, have a chance of happening somewhere in the world during the average lifetime: landslide and impact tsunamis. A landslide tsunami, caused by large mass movements into or beneath the sea, is quite plausible along our steep coasts and rugged offshore seafloors. Be wary of one even after a relatively small local quake. An impact tsunami, caused by an object from space crashing into the ocean, has no upper size limit and no preferred location. The odds are small but every beach in the world, ours included, faces the risk. So be like a sailor and always keep your weather eye out.

Learn more:
California tsunami information
National Tsunami Awareness Week
tsunami.gov
West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center

And check out QUEST's story "Scary Tsunamis":

QUEST on KQED Public Media.

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So we know – or should know – the seismic risks of living in one of the most vibrant, diverse places in the U.S. Short of leaving the region, what can we do?

Well, one of the most illuminating things about working on this story for me was learning a bit about retrofitting one’s home to make it withstand the lateral and vertical forces that accompany a strong earthquake. In short, you need to build shear walls – made of reinforced plywood and shear transfer ties – and bolt them to the walls in the foundation of your house. Suprisingly, there are no official codes as to what constitutes a proper seismic retrofit of a residential unit in California, nor is there a dearth of licensed contractors who will offer quotes and purport to retrofit your home but without any standards in place, homeowners are often at a loss to evaluate the quality of the retrofit which can easily exceed ten thousand dollars, depending on the size of the home and its location. Still, homeowners can avail themselves of a few retrofit resources online, such as Plan Set A, a guideline for retrofitting one's home that has been approved by building departments of several Bay Area municipalities such as Oakland and Hayward. Also on the Association of Bay Area Government's web site is a set of schematics illustrating shear wall construction. If you are interested in retrofitting your home, you should get quotes from several contractors, consult your city's building department to inquire about permits and possibly consult a structural engineer to perform a building analysis on your home.

If you're like me, though, and don’t own a home but want to prepare for "the big one," it's imperative to get an earthquake survival kit. The <red Cross sells earthquake survival kits but why not make your own, provided that it has water, first aid supplies, a flashlight, food rations and other essentials for you to survive 72 hours while waiting for emergency help. If you want to make your own kit, try the USGS, the city and county of San Francisco, or helpful suggestions from the San Francisco Chronicle and LA Times.

Living in earthquake country, it pays to be vigilant. I applaud the 1868 Hayward Earthquake Alliance, a consortium of agencies that are raising awareness of the risk posed by the Hayward fault with a series of events aimed at educating the public about the importance of preparedness, including a city-wide drill in San Francisco on October 21st, the 140th anniversary of the 1868 Hayward earthquake. We may not be able to predict when exactly the next earthquake on the Hayward fault may occur but we can start planning today to mitigate its effects.

For those who aren't familiar with the Hayward fault, check out our this link to the USGS Google Earth tour over the fault.

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You can never really say enough about everything that's wrong with bottled water (which, by the way, adheres to lower safety standards than what comes out of your tap-– sorry, couldn’t resist!). But when it comes to drugs in the water, what strikes me as most interesting is what we know the least about: What do these tiny, tiny amounts of drugs mean to us humans?

"The dose makes the poison" is a mantra I hear constantly from public health experts (as well as my editors)– and it's worth considering. In other words: just because something exists does not mean it's affecting you. It's likely we're exposed to far more toxins in the act of, say, applying nail polish, or pumping a tank of gas, than we'll imbibe over a lifetime of drinking tap water. But it'll be interesting to watch this play out over the next decade or so, as scientists on all sides of the debate try and figure out what exactly effect our environment-– pharmaceuticals, nail polish, plastics, and countless other everyday substances– is having on us.

Listen to the Drugs In Our Drinking Water Radio report online.

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