The Rhythms of the El Niño-La Niña Climate Pattern
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Photo courtesy Richard Staff","credit":null,"description":null,"imgSizes":{"thumbnail":{"file":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/10/suigetsutop-400x225.jpg","width":400,"height":225,"mimeType":"image/jpeg"},"guest-author-32":{"file":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/10/suigetsutop-32x32.jpg","width":32,"height":32,"mimeType":"image/jpeg"},"guest-author-64":{"file":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/10/suigetsutop-64x64.jpg","width":64,"height":64,"mimeType":"image/jpeg"},"guest-author-96":{"file":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/10/suigetsutop-96x96.jpg","width":96,"height":96,"mimeType":"image/jpeg"},"guest-author-128":{"file":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/10/suigetsutop-128x128.jpg","width":128,"height":128,"mimeType":"image/jpeg"},"detail":{"file":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/10/suigetsutop-75x75.jpg","width":75,"height":75,"mimeType":"image/jpeg"},"kqedFullSize":{"file":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/10/suigetsutop.jpg","width":640,"height":360}},"fetchFailed":false,"isLoading":false},"quest_10907":{"type":"attachments","id":"quest_10907","meta":{"index":"attachments_1591205162","site":"quest","id":"10907","found":true},"title":"elnino","publishDate":1291161536,"status":"inherit","parent":10895,"modified":1291161536,"caption":null,"credit":null,"description":"\u003cp class=\"attachment\">\u003ca href='http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2010/11/elnino1.jpg' title='elnino'>\u003cimg width=\"300\" height=\"200\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2010/11/elnino1.jpg\" class=\"attachment-medium\" alt=\"elnino\" title=\"elnino\" />\u003c/a>\u003c/p>","imgSizes":{"guest-author-32":{"file":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2010/11/elnino1-32x32.jpg","width":32,"height":32,"mimeType":"image/jpeg"},"guest-author-64":{"file":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2010/11/elnino1-64x64.jpg","width":64,"height":64,"mimeType":"image/jpeg"},"guest-author-96":{"file":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2010/11/elnino1-96x96.jpg","width":96,"height":96,"mimeType":"image/jpeg"},"guest-author-128":{"file":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2010/11/elnino1-128x128.jpg","width":128,"height":128,"mimeType":"image/jpeg"},"detail":{"file":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2010/11/elnino1-75x75.jpg","width":75,"height":75,"mimeType":"image/jpeg"},"kqedFullSize":{"file":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2010/11/elnino1.jpg","width":300,"height":200}},"fetchFailed":false,"isLoading":false}},"audioPlayerReducer":{"postId":"stream_live"},"authorsReducer":{"andrew-alden":{"type":"authors","id":"6228","meta":{"index":"authors_1591205172","id":"6228","found":true},"name":"Andrew Alden","firstName":"Andrew","lastName":"Alden","slug":"andrew-alden","email":"alden@andrew-alden.com","display_author_email":false,"staff_mastheads":[],"title":null,"bio":"Andrew Alden earned his geology degree at the University of New Hampshire and moved back to the Bay Area to work at the U.S. Geological Survey for six years. 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In writing about geology in the Bay Area and surroundings, he hopes to share some of the useful and pleasurable insights that geologists give us—not just facts about the deep past, but an attitude that might be called the \u003ci>deep present\u003c/i>.\r\n\r\nRead his \u003ca href=\"http://science.kqed.org/quest/author/andrew-alden/\">previous contributions\u003c/a> to \u003ca href=\"http://http://science.kqed.org/quest/\">QUEST\u003c/a>, a project dedicated to exploring the Science of Sustainability.","avatar":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/9eaa0afc32f98c5fc7ce634437334a64?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twitter":null,"facebook":null,"instagram":null,"linkedin":null,"sites":[{"site":"science","roles":["author"]},{"site":"quest","roles":["subscriber"]}],"headData":{"title":"Andrew Alden | KQED","description":null,"ogImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/9eaa0afc32f98c5fc7ce634437334a64?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/9eaa0afc32f98c5fc7ce634437334a64?s=600&d=blank&r=g"},"isLoading":false,"link":"/author/andrew-alden"},"brian-romans":{"type":"authors","id":"10171","meta":{"index":"authors_1591205172","id":"10171","found":true},"name":"Brian Romans","firstName":"Brian","lastName":"Romans","slug":"brian-romans","email":"romansbrian@gmail.com","display_author_email":false,"staff_mastheads":[],"title":null,"bio":"Brian Romans is the author the popular geoscience blog Clastic Detritus where he writes about topics in the field of sedimentary and marine geology and shares photographs of geologic field work from around the world. He is fascinated by the dynamic processes that shape our planet and the science of reconstructing ancient landscapes preserved in the geologic record. Brian came to the Bay Area in 2003 and completed a Ph.D. in geology at Stanford University in 2008. He lives in Berkeley with his wife, a high school science teacher, and is currently working as a research scientist in the energy industry. Follow him on \u003ca href=\"http://www.twitter.com/clasticdetritus\">Twitter\u003c/a>.","avatar":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/17c56b6efae79164ca77ee5cb5021bb1?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twitter":null,"facebook":null,"instagram":null,"linkedin":null,"sites":[{"site":"quest","roles":["subscriber"]}],"headData":{"title":"Brian Romans | KQED","description":null,"ogImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/17c56b6efae79164ca77ee5cb5021bb1?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/17c56b6efae79164ca77ee5cb5021bb1?s=600&d=blank&r=g"},"isLoading":false,"link":"/author/brian-romans"}},"breakingNewsReducer":{},"campaignFinanceReducer":{},"firebase":{"requesting":{},"requested":{},"timestamps":{},"data":{},"ordered":{},"auth":{"isLoaded":false,"isEmpty":true},"authError":null,"profile":{"isLoaded":false,"isEmpty":true},"listeners":{"byId":{},"allIds":[]},"isInitializing":false,"errors":[]},"navBarReducer":{"navBarId":"home","fullView":true,"showPlayer":false},"navMenuReducer":{"menus":[{"key":"menu1","items":[{"name":"News","link":"/","type":"title"},{"name":"Politics","link":"/politics"},{"name":"Science","link":"/science"},{"name":"Education","link":"/educationnews"},{"name":"Housing","link":"/housing"},{"name":"Immigration","link":"/immigration"},{"name":"Criminal Justice","link":"/criminaljustice"},{"name":"Silicon Valley","link":"/siliconvalley"},{"name":"Forum","link":"/forum"},{"name":"The California Report","link":"/californiareport"}]},{"key":"menu2","items":[{"name":"Arts & Culture","link":"/arts","type":"title"},{"name":"Critics’ Picks","link":"/thedolist"},{"name":"Cultural Commentary","link":"/artscommentary"},{"name":"Food & Drink","link":"/food"},{"name":"Bay Area Hip-Hop","link":"/bayareahiphop"},{"name":"Rebel Girls","link":"/rebelgirls"},{"name":"Arts Video","link":"/artsvideos"}]},{"key":"menu3","items":[{"name":"Podcasts","link":"/podcasts","type":"title"},{"name":"Bay Curious","link":"/podcasts/baycurious"},{"name":"Rightnowish","link":"/podcasts/rightnowish"},{"name":"The Bay","link":"/podcasts/thebay"},{"name":"On Our Watch","link":"/podcasts/onourwatch"},{"name":"Mindshift","link":"/podcasts/mindshift"},{"name":"Consider This","link":"/podcasts/considerthis"},{"name":"Political Breakdown","link":"/podcasts/politicalbreakdown"}]},{"key":"menu4","items":[{"name":"Live Radio","link":"/radio","type":"title"},{"name":"TV","link":"/tv","type":"title"},{"name":"Events","link":"/events","type":"title"},{"name":"For Educators","link":"/education","type":"title"},{"name":"Support KQED","link":"/support","type":"title"},{"name":"About","link":"/about","type":"title"},{"name":"Help Center","link":"https://kqed-helpcenter.kqed.org/s","type":"title"}]}]},"pagesReducer":{},"postsReducer":{"stream_live":{"type":"live","id":"stream_live","audioUrl":"https://streams.kqed.org/kqedradio","title":"Live Stream","excerpt":"Live Stream information currently unavailable.","link":"/radio","featImg":"","label":{"name":"KQED Live","link":"/"}},"stream_kqedNewscast":{"type":"posts","id":"stream_kqedNewscast","audioUrl":"https://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/RDnews/newscast.mp3?_=1","title":"KQED Newscast","featImg":"","label":{"name":"88.5 FM","link":"/"}},"quest_46193":{"type":"posts","id":"quest_46193","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"quest","id":"46193","score":null,"sort":[1350588109000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"a-new-radiocarbon-yardstick-from-japan","title":"A New Radiocarbon Yardstick from Japan","publishDate":1350588109,"format":"aside","headTitle":"QUEST | KQED Science","labelTerm":{"site":"quest"},"content":"\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_46194\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/10/18/a-new-radiocarbon-yardstick-from-japan/suigetsutop/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-46194\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/10/suigetsutop.jpg\" alt=\"\" title=\"suigetsutop\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46194\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/10/suigetsutop.jpg 640w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/10/suigetsutop-400x225.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Pristine leaf fossils from Lake Suigetsu allowed radiocarbon dates to be calibrated against absolute dates from annual sediment layers. Photo courtesy Richard Staff\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Every historian knows about the Rosetta Stone, which had an ancient Egyptian text carved on it in three different scripts, two of which had long resisted translation. The ability to cross-correlate the scripts—to calibrate their alphabets—opened up a huge body of knowledge to scholars. Climate researchers, as well as archaeologists and geologists, look for similar natural records that allow us to calibrate different yardsticks of time. \u003ca href=\"http://www.sciencemag.org/content/338/6105/337\">A paper published today in the journal \u003ci>Science\u003c/i>\u003c/a> unveils a superb \"document\" of conditions during the last 53,000 years in a single place: Japan's remarkable \u003ca href=\"http://www.suigetsu.org/embed.php?File=\" target=\"_blank\">Lake Suigetsu\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In 2006, researchers drilled into the mud at the center of Lake Suigetsu and carefully extracted four long cores of sediment. They found that the top part of this sedimentary record consisted of thin annual layers—varves—representing about 60,000 years of time. Varves are close to the ideal time record, but the conditions that favor them are rare. And this record also contained abundant plant remains, allowing three different timekeeping \"scripts\" to be calibrated against each other: varves, tree rings, and radiocarbon. The first two are considered the most nearly perfect measure of absolute time, but radiocarbon is a much more important yardstick, although the stick is not quite straight.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Radiocarbon, or carbon-14, is a wonderful tool for determining the age of recent organic remains—\"recent\" to a geologist, that is, meaning the last few tens of thousands of years. Radiocarbon is an unstable isotope of carbon that is formed by cosmic radiation at the edge of space and rains down upon us constantly, becoming incorporated in every living thing. The minute a living thing dies, it stops replenishing its radiocarbon and the radiocarbon slowly fades away with a half-life of 5730 years. Radiocarbon dating, then, is simple in principle: you sort out the carbon atoms and see how many carbon-14 atoms there are among the common carbon-12 atoms. The carbon in living matter contains about one part per trillion carbon-14, and after \u003cdel datetime=\"2012-10-19T02:36:10+00:00\">eight \u003c/del> ten half-lives there would be 1/1024th of it left, or one part in a quadrillion. With the errors and uncertainties of measurements at this level, one or two more half-lives is as far as physics can take us.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Radiocarbon is complicated by factors on Earth and in heaven. Its formation in the upper atmosphere changes with the balance in cosmic radiation from the sun and from the galaxy at large. Also, global warming and cooling puts different amounts of air at the altitude where radiocarbon is made. So radiocarbon production is not constant. And on Earth, radiocarbon circulates differently in the air, on land and in the ocean.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The record in Lake Suigetsu is so promising because of the varves and the perfectly preserved fossil leaves. The varves march nicely right through the whole time span of radiocarbon, and the fossils can then give us a really accurate description of the bends and warps in the radiocarbon yardstick.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The researchers used tree rings as the gold standard; their record here extends back to about 12,000 years ago. Tree rings were carefully matched against the varves, enabling the count to continue further into the Pleistocene based on varves alone. But Lake Suigetsu was not perfectly still all that time. The record of varves was interrupted by landslides from shore (perhaps caused by earthquakes), volcanic ash beds, and occasional fadeouts where no layers were visible. As a result even the varve record was about 6 percent uncertain by 40,000 years ago.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At this point the researchers brought in a more accurate yardstick: cavestone formations from China and the Bahamas, which were securely dated by both the radiocarbon and the uranium-thorium methods. This step pinned the Lake Suigetsu record to the very long uranium record, in principle knitting the varve record into the entire tapestry of geochronology.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The value of the oldest part of the Lake Suigetsu record is in establishing a radiocarbon yardstick for the continents during this time. Until now, most radiocarbon dates of that vintage have been from deep-sea organisms. So for ice age climate researchers, Suigetsu is their newest Rosetta stone.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>California's Clear Lake is also a very old lake, and this year researchers took new sediment cores there. Today's \u003ci>Science\u003c/i> paper will surely give them clearer sight into Clear Lake's deep past.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Additional Info:\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://www.suigetsu.org/\">Suigetsu Varves 2006\u003c/a>\u003cbr>\n\u003ca href=\"http://c14.arch.ox.ac.uk/\">Radiocarbon Web-Info\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"A long core of sediment from a Japanese lake is a Rosetta Stone for ice-age climate research.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1351578647,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":13,"wordCount":771},"headData":{"title":"A New Radiocarbon Yardstick from Japan | KQED","description":"A long core of sediment from a Japanese lake is a Rosetta Stone for ice-age climate research.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"disqusIdentifier":"46193 http://science.kqed.org/quest/?p=46193","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/10/18/a-new-radiocarbon-yardstick-from-japan/","disqusTitle":"A New Radiocarbon Yardstick from Japan","path":"/quest/46193/a-new-radiocarbon-yardstick-from-japan","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_46194\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/10/18/a-new-radiocarbon-yardstick-from-japan/suigetsutop/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-46194\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/10/suigetsutop.jpg\" alt=\"\" title=\"suigetsutop\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46194\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/10/suigetsutop.jpg 640w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/10/suigetsutop-400x225.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Pristine leaf fossils from Lake Suigetsu allowed radiocarbon dates to be calibrated against absolute dates from annual sediment layers. Photo courtesy Richard Staff\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Every historian knows about the Rosetta Stone, which had an ancient Egyptian text carved on it in three different scripts, two of which had long resisted translation. The ability to cross-correlate the scripts—to calibrate their alphabets—opened up a huge body of knowledge to scholars. Climate researchers, as well as archaeologists and geologists, look for similar natural records that allow us to calibrate different yardsticks of time. \u003ca href=\"http://www.sciencemag.org/content/338/6105/337\">A paper published today in the journal \u003ci>Science\u003c/i>\u003c/a> unveils a superb \"document\" of conditions during the last 53,000 years in a single place: Japan's remarkable \u003ca href=\"http://www.suigetsu.org/embed.php?File=\" target=\"_blank\">Lake Suigetsu\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In 2006, researchers drilled into the mud at the center of Lake Suigetsu and carefully extracted four long cores of sediment. They found that the top part of this sedimentary record consisted of thin annual layers—varves—representing about 60,000 years of time. Varves are close to the ideal time record, but the conditions that favor them are rare. And this record also contained abundant plant remains, allowing three different timekeeping \"scripts\" to be calibrated against each other: varves, tree rings, and radiocarbon. The first two are considered the most nearly perfect measure of absolute time, but radiocarbon is a much more important yardstick, although the stick is not quite straight.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Radiocarbon, or carbon-14, is a wonderful tool for determining the age of recent organic remains—\"recent\" to a geologist, that is, meaning the last few tens of thousands of years. Radiocarbon is an unstable isotope of carbon that is formed by cosmic radiation at the edge of space and rains down upon us constantly, becoming incorporated in every living thing. The minute a living thing dies, it stops replenishing its radiocarbon and the radiocarbon slowly fades away with a half-life of 5730 years. Radiocarbon dating, then, is simple in principle: you sort out the carbon atoms and see how many carbon-14 atoms there are among the common carbon-12 atoms. The carbon in living matter contains about one part per trillion carbon-14, and after \u003cdel datetime=\"2012-10-19T02:36:10+00:00\">eight \u003c/del> ten half-lives there would be 1/1024th of it left, or one part in a quadrillion. With the errors and uncertainties of measurements at this level, one or two more half-lives is as far as physics can take us.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Radiocarbon is complicated by factors on Earth and in heaven. Its formation in the upper atmosphere changes with the balance in cosmic radiation from the sun and from the galaxy at large. Also, global warming and cooling puts different amounts of air at the altitude where radiocarbon is made. So radiocarbon production is not constant. And on Earth, radiocarbon circulates differently in the air, on land and in the ocean.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The record in Lake Suigetsu is so promising because of the varves and the perfectly preserved fossil leaves. The varves march nicely right through the whole time span of radiocarbon, and the fossils can then give us a really accurate description of the bends and warps in the radiocarbon yardstick.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The researchers used tree rings as the gold standard; their record here extends back to about 12,000 years ago. Tree rings were carefully matched against the varves, enabling the count to continue further into the Pleistocene based on varves alone. But Lake Suigetsu was not perfectly still all that time. The record of varves was interrupted by landslides from shore (perhaps caused by earthquakes), volcanic ash beds, and occasional fadeouts where no layers were visible. As a result even the varve record was about 6 percent uncertain by 40,000 years ago.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At this point the researchers brought in a more accurate yardstick: cavestone formations from China and the Bahamas, which were securely dated by both the radiocarbon and the uranium-thorium methods. This step pinned the Lake Suigetsu record to the very long uranium record, in principle knitting the varve record into the entire tapestry of geochronology.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The value of the oldest part of the Lake Suigetsu record is in establishing a radiocarbon yardstick for the continents during this time. Until now, most radiocarbon dates of that vintage have been from deep-sea organisms. So for ice age climate researchers, Suigetsu is their newest Rosetta stone.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>California's Clear Lake is also a very old lake, and this year researchers took new sediment cores there. Today's \u003ci>Science\u003c/i> paper will surely give them clearer sight into Clear Lake's deep past.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Additional Info:\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://www.suigetsu.org/\">Suigetsu Varves 2006\u003c/a>\u003cbr>\n\u003ca href=\"http://c14.arch.ox.ac.uk/\">Radiocarbon Web-Info\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/quest/46193/a-new-radiocarbon-yardstick-from-japan","authors":["6228"],"categories":["quest_11"],"tags":["quest_3516","quest_11544","quest_2114","quest_13202","quest_11543","quest_2576","quest_11542"],"featImg":"quest_46194","label":"quest"},"quest_10895":{"type":"posts","id":"quest_10895","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"quest","id":"10895","score":null,"sort":[1291311047000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"the-rhythms-of-the-el-nino-la-nina-climate-pattern","title":"The Rhythms of the El Niño-La Niña Climate Pattern","publishDate":1291311047,"format":"standard","headTitle":"QUEST | KQED Science","labelTerm":{"site":"quest"},"content":"\u003cp>\u003cspan class=\"left\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2010/11/elnino1.jpg\">\u003cem>El Nino temperature anomalies in the eastern Pacific Ocean.\u003c/em>\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/author/jennifer-skene/\">Jennifer Skene\u003c/a>'s post earlier this week here on the QUEST Community Science Blog about the potential \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2010/11/29/living-in-la-nina/\">effects of this winter's La Niña\u003c/a> is a great lead-in for discussing this climatic phenomenon in a bit more detail. As Jennifer noted, the La Niña weather pattern is the flip side of El Niño, which is when unusually warm waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean affect weather patterns for large swaths of North and South America. For California, El Niños typically result in increased precipitation in the winter months and La Niñas are characterized by drier conditions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c!--more-->\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>El Niño is the nickname of the climate pattern called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. Although we don't hear much about the Southern Oscillation part, it is the atmospheric component of this linked ocean-atmosphere phenomenon. Although the physics of ENSO is still not fully understood and the subject of current research, the regularity of the pattern is well documented. The image below is a time series plot of ENSO events for the past 60 years. The positive values filled in with red are the warm ENSO phase (El Niño) and the negative values in blue are the cool ENSO phase (La Niña). The regularity isn't perfectly on beat -- it varies from 3-7 years between measurable events. But this is enough regularity to make ENSO one of the more predictable patterns climate scientists have studied.\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2010/11/ENSO-11.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10896\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2010/11/ENSO-11.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"595\" height=\"232\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While the timing of ENSO cycles might have some predictability, the \u003cem>magnitude\u003c/em> of ENSO (the height/depth of the peaks) can vary significantly. Some are weak while others are quite strong. The 1997-1998 El Niño is considered to be \u003ca href=\"http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/pubs/outstand/mcph2969/mcph2969.shtml\">one of the strongest of the past 100 years\u003c/a> and is still in the memory of many Californians because of the intense \u003ca href=\"http://www.sfmuseum.org/hist10/98wx.html\">precipitation and subsequent flooding it unleashed\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>What's really interesting is that this 3-7 year pattern of alternating ENSO phases is just the shortest timescale in a climate phenomenon with multiple rhythms superimposed. \u003ca href=\"http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v420/n6912/abs/nature01194.html\">Paleoclimate research\u003c/a> has revealed that ENSO also beats at timescales of hundreds to thousands of years. The image below is very similar to the above diagram -- it has time in years on the horizontal axis and occurrence of ENSO events on the vertical axis. (Important difference to note are that the present is on the left side on this plot instead of the right side and time is in 'years ago' and not a date.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2010/11/ENSO-21.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10897\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2010/11/ENSO-21.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"209\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2010/11/ENSO-21.jpg 1293w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2010/11/ENSO-21-400x140.jpg 400w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2010/11/ENSO-21-800x279.jpg 800w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2010/11/ENSO-21-1180x412.jpg 1180w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2010/11/ENSO-21-960x335.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This plot goes back to 10,000 years ago and shows the variability in ENSO at a much longer timescale. Within those taller peaks in the plot are numerous individual El Niños that are grouped together in time. This doesn't mean that every single El Niño is very strong -- just that during a few hundred years there more of those strong El Niños. In addition to the peaks every several hundred years there is also an even longer-term trend of increasing ENSO events over 5,000 to 6,000 years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Like a complex musical composition with multiple interacting rhythms, the interacting timescales of this climate phenomenon might result in weather patterns that defy our ability to predict confidently. The authors of the study looking at ENSO patterns for the past 10,000 conclude that bigger-scale changes in global climate (due to changes in the Earth's orbit around the sun) are driving those longer-timescale changes. A big question right now is how modern global climate change will affect ENSO. A warming ocean suggests El Niños will get more intense, but perhaps there are some unanticipated effects from the multiple interacting factors that still needs to be studied. We are improving our understanding of the Earth's climate systems but, as always, much more work needs to be done.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>Images: (1) El Nino anomalies in the eastern Pacific Ocean; image from \u003ca href=\"http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/pubs/outstand/mcph2969/mcph2969.shtml\">McPhaeden et al. of NOAA\u003c/a> (2) ENSO Index from 1950-2010; image from \u003ca href=\"http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/pubs/outstand/mcph2969/mcph2969.shtml\">McPhaeden et al. of NOAA\u003c/a>; (3) Figure from \u003ca href=\"http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v420/n6912/abs/nature01194.html\">Moy et al. (2002)\u003c/a>; Nature 420\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp> 37.7749295 -122.4194155\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"El Niño is the nickname of the climate pattern called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1443829098,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":13,"wordCount":712},"headData":{"title":"The Rhythms of the El Niño-La Niña Climate Pattern | KQED","description":"El Niño is the nickname of the climate pattern called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"disqusIdentifier":"10895 http://www.kqed.org/quest/blog/?p=10895","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2010/12/02/the-rhythms-of-the-el-nino-la-nina-climate-pattern/","disqusTitle":"The Rhythms of the El Niño-La Niña Climate Pattern","path":"/quest/10895/the-rhythms-of-the-el-nino-la-nina-climate-pattern","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003cspan class=\"left\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2010/11/elnino1.jpg\">\u003cem>El Nino temperature anomalies in the eastern Pacific Ocean.\u003c/em>\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/author/jennifer-skene/\">Jennifer Skene\u003c/a>'s post earlier this week here on the QUEST Community Science Blog about the potential \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2010/11/29/living-in-la-nina/\">effects of this winter's La Niña\u003c/a> is a great lead-in for discussing this climatic phenomenon in a bit more detail. As Jennifer noted, the La Niña weather pattern is the flip side of El Niño, which is when unusually warm waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean affect weather patterns for large swaths of North and South America. For California, El Niños typically result in increased precipitation in the winter months and La Niñas are characterized by drier conditions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c!--more-->\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>El Niño is the nickname of the climate pattern called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. Although we don't hear much about the Southern Oscillation part, it is the atmospheric component of this linked ocean-atmosphere phenomenon. Although the physics of ENSO is still not fully understood and the subject of current research, the regularity of the pattern is well documented. The image below is a time series plot of ENSO events for the past 60 years. The positive values filled in with red are the warm ENSO phase (El Niño) and the negative values in blue are the cool ENSO phase (La Niña). The regularity isn't perfectly on beat -- it varies from 3-7 years between measurable events. But this is enough regularity to make ENSO one of the more predictable patterns climate scientists have studied.\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2010/11/ENSO-11.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10896\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2010/11/ENSO-11.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"595\" height=\"232\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While the timing of ENSO cycles might have some predictability, the \u003cem>magnitude\u003c/em> of ENSO (the height/depth of the peaks) can vary significantly. Some are weak while others are quite strong. The 1997-1998 El Niño is considered to be \u003ca href=\"http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/pubs/outstand/mcph2969/mcph2969.shtml\">one of the strongest of the past 100 years\u003c/a> and is still in the memory of many Californians because of the intense \u003ca href=\"http://www.sfmuseum.org/hist10/98wx.html\">precipitation and subsequent flooding it unleashed\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>What's really interesting is that this 3-7 year pattern of alternating ENSO phases is just the shortest timescale in a climate phenomenon with multiple rhythms superimposed. \u003ca href=\"http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v420/n6912/abs/nature01194.html\">Paleoclimate research\u003c/a> has revealed that ENSO also beats at timescales of hundreds to thousands of years. The image below is very similar to the above diagram -- it has time in years on the horizontal axis and occurrence of ENSO events on the vertical axis. (Important difference to note are that the present is on the left side on this plot instead of the right side and time is in 'years ago' and not a date.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2010/11/ENSO-21.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10897\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2010/11/ENSO-21.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"209\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2010/11/ENSO-21.jpg 1293w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2010/11/ENSO-21-400x140.jpg 400w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2010/11/ENSO-21-800x279.jpg 800w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2010/11/ENSO-21-1180x412.jpg 1180w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2010/11/ENSO-21-960x335.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This plot goes back to 10,000 years ago and shows the variability in ENSO at a much longer timescale. Within those taller peaks in the plot are numerous individual El Niños that are grouped together in time. This doesn't mean that every single El Niño is very strong -- just that during a few hundred years there more of those strong El Niños. In addition to the peaks every several hundred years there is also an even longer-term trend of increasing ENSO events over 5,000 to 6,000 years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Like a complex musical composition with multiple interacting rhythms, the interacting timescales of this climate phenomenon might result in weather patterns that defy our ability to predict confidently. The authors of the study looking at ENSO patterns for the past 10,000 conclude that bigger-scale changes in global climate (due to changes in the Earth's orbit around the sun) are driving those longer-timescale changes. A big question right now is how modern global climate change will affect ENSO. A warming ocean suggests El Niños will get more intense, but perhaps there are some unanticipated effects from the multiple interacting factors that still needs to be studied. We are improving our understanding of the Earth's climate systems but, as always, much more work needs to be done.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>Images: (1) El Nino anomalies in the eastern Pacific Ocean; image from \u003ca href=\"http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/pubs/outstand/mcph2969/mcph2969.shtml\">McPhaeden et al. of NOAA\u003c/a> (2) ENSO Index from 1950-2010; image from \u003ca href=\"http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/pubs/outstand/mcph2969/mcph2969.shtml\">McPhaeden et al. of NOAA\u003c/a>; (3) Figure from \u003ca href=\"http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v420/n6912/abs/nature01194.html\">Moy et al. (2002)\u003c/a>; Nature 420\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp> 37.7749295 -122.4194155\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/quest/10895/the-rhythms-of-the-el-nino-la-nina-climate-pattern","authors":["10171"],"categories":["quest_6","quest_11"],"tags":["quest_13195","quest_944","quest_1224","quest_2114","quest_19"],"featImg":"quest_10907","label":"quest"}},"programsReducer":{"possible":{"id":"possible","title":"Possible","info":"Possible is hosted by entrepreneur Reid Hoffman and writer Aria Finger. Together in Possible, Hoffman and Finger lead enlightening discussions about building a brighter collective future. The show features interviews with visionary guests like Trevor Noah, Sam Altman and Janette Sadik-Khan. Possible paints an optimistic portrait of the world we can create through science, policy, business, art and our shared humanity. It asks: What if everything goes right for once? How can we get there? Each episode also includes a short fiction story generated by advanced AI GPT-4, serving as a thought-provoking springboard to speculate how humanity could leverage technology for good.","airtime":"SUN 2pm","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Possible-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.possible.fm/","meta":{"site":"news","source":"Possible"},"link":"/radio/program/possible","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/possible/id1677184070","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/730YpdUSNlMyPQwNnyjp4k"}},"1a":{"id":"1a","title":"1A","info":"1A is home to the national conversation. 1A brings on great guests and frames the best debate in ways that make you think, share and engage.","airtime":"MON-THU 11pm-12am","imageSrc":"https://ww2.kqed.org/radio/wp-content/uploads/sites/50/2018/04/1a.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://the1a.org/","meta":{"site":"news","source":"npr"},"link":"/radio/program/1a","subscribe":{"npr":"https://rpb3r.app.goo.gl/RBrW","apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wa/viewPodcast?s=143441&mt=2&id=1188724250&at=11l79Y&ct=nprdirectory","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/1A-p947376/","rss":"https://feeds.npr.org/510316/podcast.xml"}},"all-things-considered":{"id":"all-things-considered","title":"All Things Considered","info":"Every weekday, \u003cem>All Things Considered\u003c/em> hosts Robert Siegel, Audie Cornish, Ari Shapiro, and Kelly McEvers present the program's trademark mix of news, interviews, commentaries, reviews, and offbeat features. 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On Our Watch brings listeners into the rooms where officers are questioned and witnesses are interrogated to find out who this system is really protecting. 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For one hour a week, the show tries to lift the veil from the process of \"making media,\" especially news media, because it's through that lens that we see the world and the world sees us","airtime":"SUN 2pm-3pm, MON 12am-1am","imageSrc":"https://ww2.kqed.org/radio/wp-content/uploads/sites/50/2018/04/onTheMedia.png","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.wnycstudios.org/shows/otm","meta":{"site":"news","source":"wnyc"},"link":"/radio/program/on-the-media","subscribe":{"apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/on-the-media/id73330715?mt=2","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/On-the-Media-p69/","rss":"http://feeds.wnyc.org/onthemedia"}},"our-body-politic":{"id":"our-body-politic","title":"Our Body Politic","info":"Presented by KQED, KCRW and KPCC, and created and hosted by award-winning journalist Farai Chideya, Our Body Politic is unapologetically centered on reporting on not just how women of color experience the major political events of today, but how they’re impacting those very issues.","airtime":"SAT 6pm-7pm, SUN 1am-2am","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Our-Body-Politic-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://our-body-politic.simplecast.com/","meta":{"site":"news","source":"kcrw"},"link":"/radio/program/our-body-politic","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/our-body-politic/id1533069868","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5zaW1wbGVjYXN0LmNvbS9feGFQaHMxcw","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/4ApAiLT1kV153TttWAmqmc","rss":"https://feeds.simplecast.com/_xaPhs1s","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/podcasts/News--Politics-Podcasts/Our-Body-Politic-p1369211/"}},"pbs-newshour":{"id":"pbs-newshour","title":"PBS NewsHour","info":"Analysis, background reports and updates from the PBS NewsHour putting today's news in context.","airtime":"MON-FRI 3pm-4pm","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/PBS-News-Hour-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/","meta":{"site":"news","source":"pbs"},"link":"/radio/program/pbs-newshour","subscribe":{"apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/pbs-newshour-full-show/id394432287?mt=2","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/PBS-NewsHour---Full-Show-p425698/","rss":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/feeds/rss/podcasts/show"}},"perspectives":{"id":"perspectives","title":"Perspectives","tagline":"KQED's series of of daily listener commentaries since 1991","info":"KQED's series of of daily listener commentaries since 1991.","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Perspectives-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"/perspectives/","meta":{"site":"radio","source":"kqed","order":"15"},"link":"/perspectives","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id73801135","npr":"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/432309616/perspectives","rss":"https://ww2.kqed.org/perspectives/category/perspectives/feed/","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly93dzIua3FlZC5vcmcvcGVyc3BlY3RpdmVzL2NhdGVnb3J5L3BlcnNwZWN0aXZlcy9mZWVkLw"}},"planet-money":{"id":"planet-money","title":"Planet Money","info":"The economy explained. 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The result is stories that inform and inspire, arming our listeners with information to right injustices, hold the powerful accountable and improve lives.Reveal is hosted by Al Letson and showcases the award-winning work of CIR and newsrooms large and small across the nation. In a radio and podcast market crowded with choices, Reveal focuses on important and often surprising stories that illuminate the world for our listeners.","airtime":"SAT 4pm-5pm","imageSrc":"https://ww2.kqed.org/radio/wp-content/uploads/sites/50/2018/04/reveal300px.png","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.revealnews.org/episodes/","meta":{"site":"news","source":"npr"},"link":"/radio/program/reveal","subscribe":{"apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/reveal/id886009669","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/Reveal-p679597/","rss":"http://feeds.revealradio.org/revealpodcast"}},"says-you":{"id":"says-you","title":"Says You!","info":"Public radio's game show of bluff and bluster, words and whimsy. 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