H1N1 flu

The vulnerability translated to substantial number of deaths, estimated to be between 2,500 and 6,100 according to the CDC. There is good news on the horizon, as week to week indicators show both a decline in national doctor visits for the flu and there has been a substantial decline n number of states reporting widespread H1N1 activity.

This may be sign of the H1N1 outbreak peak, a figure Art Reingold has been closely monitoring for the past few months. He'll be discussing the epidemiology of the pandemic and the controversy over the vaccine.

To learn more about the H1N1 virus, call: (800) CDC-INFO (800 232-4636) or visit the CDC's website.

H1N1 Update with Dr. Art Reingold
When: Wednesday, December 9th, 7-9 PM
Where: Cafe Valparaiso at La Pena Cultural Center
Cost: Free
Details: Experts are predicting a substantial resurgence of swine flu cases this coming winter. Art Reingold will provide an update concerning the global pandemic of novel H1N1(swine) influenza; the current state of affairs in the US and California; and options for prevention, including a pandemic influenza vaccine.

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Animal viruses can be more deadly than their human
counterparts

Over those two years, at least three waves of flu struck killing over 600,000 people in the U.S. and a staggering 30-50 million people worldwide.  People died at such a high rate that cities ran out of caskets and dead bodies were stacked on porches and in the streets.

Governments have been concerned that history might repeat itself because the two flues share one thing in common–they both started out as animal viruses.  And our bodies are not particularly good at fighting off viruses new to humans.

Each year a new flock of flu strains kicks off the flu season.  Almost always these strains are variations of human flues from previous years.  What this means is that we have seen cousins of these viruses in the past and so have a leg up on mounting an attack and defeating them.

We do not have this same leg up on animal viruses.  Our immune systems haven't seen anything like them and so can't mount a quick attack.  The end result is that the percentage of people who die from animal flues tends to be much higher than from run of the mill human flues.

In any flu season, the CDC estimates that 5-20% of the U.S. population ends up with the flu.  And that 36,000 of these people die.  The numbers of deaths would be much higher if a truly deadly animal flu virus like the bird flu from a few years back were to emerge and gain the ability to spread from person to person.  (The bird flu was never more than a few isolated cases since it never gained this ability.)

At first blush, this is what the swine flu looked like.  The disease spread easily among people and, in Mexico at least, appeared to be more deadly than normal flues.  So governments around the world sprang into action.  Since flu is spread through contact, governments tried to keep people away from each other.

They closed schools at the fist sign of trouble.  Mexico closed restaurants, theaters and museums too.  All of this was done in an attempt to prevent the spread of a disease like the flu of 1918.

At least outside of Mexico, this flu does not seem to be too much worse than other flues.  So it may be that governments overreacted this time.  But I would prefer that they overreact like this as opposed to ignoring a deadly pandemic.  We don't want another 1918 on our hands.

More info on The 1918 Flu in San Francisco

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