Earthquake Early Warning: What Could We Do With 15 Seconds?
Reporter's Notes: Predicting the Next Big One
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Her science radio stories appear on KQED and NPR.\r\n\r\nEmail her at astanden@kqed.org","avatar":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/3d021b72de685a788b0487b059d0a6a1?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twitter":null,"facebook":null,"instagram":null,"linkedin":null,"sites":[{"site":"news","roles":["subscriber"]},{"site":"futureofyou","roles":["subscriber"]},{"site":"stateofhealth","roles":["subscriber"]},{"site":"science","roles":["editor"]},{"site":"quest","roles":["subscriber"]}],"headData":{"title":"Amy Standen | KQED","description":null,"ogImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/3d021b72de685a788b0487b059d0a6a1?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/3d021b72de685a788b0487b059d0a6a1?s=600&d=blank&r=g"},"isLoading":false,"link":"/author/amystanden"}},"breakingNewsReducer":{},"campaignFinanceReducer":{},"firebase":{"requesting":{},"requested":{},"timestamps":{},"data":{},"ordered":{},"auth":{"isLoaded":false,"isEmpty":true},"authError":null,"profile":{"isLoaded":false,"isEmpty":true},"listeners":{"byId":{},"allIds":[]},"isInitializing":false,"errors":[]},"navBarReducer":{"navBarId":"home","fullView":true,"showPlayer":false},"navMenuReducer":{"menus":[{"key":"menu1","items":[{"name":"News","link":"/","type":"title"},{"name":"Politics","link":"/politics"},{"name":"Science","link":"/science"},{"name":"Education","link":"/educationnews"},{"name":"Housing","link":"/housing"},{"name":"Immigration","link":"/immigration"},{"name":"Criminal Justice","link":"/criminaljustice"},{"name":"Silicon Valley","link":"/siliconvalley"},{"name":"Forum","link":"/forum"},{"name":"The California Report","link":"/californiareport"}]},{"key":"menu2","items":[{"name":"Arts & Culture","link":"/arts","type":"title"},{"name":"Critics’ Picks","link":"/thedolist"},{"name":"Cultural Commentary","link":"/artscommentary"},{"name":"Food & Drink","link":"/food"},{"name":"Bay Area Hip-Hop","link":"/bayareahiphop"},{"name":"Rebel Girls","link":"/rebelgirls"},{"name":"Arts Video","link":"/artsvideos"}]},{"key":"menu3","items":[{"name":"Podcasts","link":"/podcasts","type":"title"},{"name":"Bay Curious","link":"/podcasts/baycurious"},{"name":"Rightnowish","link":"/podcasts/rightnowish"},{"name":"The Bay","link":"/podcasts/thebay"},{"name":"On Our Watch","link":"/podcasts/onourwatch"},{"name":"Mindshift","link":"/podcasts/mindshift"},{"name":"Consider This","link":"/podcasts/considerthis"},{"name":"Political Breakdown","link":"/podcasts/politicalbreakdown"}]},{"key":"menu4","items":[{"name":"Live Radio","link":"/radio","type":"title"},{"name":"TV","link":"/tv","type":"title"},{"name":"Events","link":"/events","type":"title"},{"name":"For Educators","link":"/education","type":"title"},{"name":"Support KQED","link":"/support","type":"title"},{"name":"About","link":"/about","type":"title"},{"name":"Help Center","link":"https://kqed-helpcenter.kqed.org/s","type":"title"}]}]},"pagesReducer":{},"postsReducer":{"stream_live":{"type":"live","id":"stream_live","audioUrl":"https://streams.kqed.org/kqedradio","title":"Live Stream","excerpt":"Live Stream information currently unavailable.","link":"/radio","featImg":"","label":{"name":"KQED Live","link":"/"}},"stream_kqedNewscast":{"type":"posts","id":"stream_kqedNewscast","audioUrl":"https://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/RDnews/newscast.mp3?_=1","title":"KQED Newscast","featImg":"","label":{"name":"88.5 FM","link":"/"}},"quest_13653":{"type":"posts","id":"quest_13653","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"quest","id":"13653","score":null,"sort":[1302296449000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"earthquake-warning-2","title":"Earthquake Early Warning: What Could We Do With 15 Seconds?","publishDate":1302296449,"format":"audio","headTitle":"Earthquake Early Warning: What Could We Do With 15 Seconds? | KQED","labelTerm":{"site":"quest"},"content":"\u003cp>\u003cspan class=\"left\">\u003ca href=\"http://www.kqed.org/quest\">\u003cimg decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2011/04/earthquake3002.jpg\" alt=\"\">\u003c/a>\u003cem>Loma Prieta earthquake, Marina Diistrict of San Francisco, 1989. Courtesy of \u003ca href=\"http://www.flickr.com/photos/californiawatch/5572600126/\">California Watch.\u003c/a>\u003c/em>\u003c/span> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>What would a California earthquake early warning look like? \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Probably something like \u003ca href=\"http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rU1bYspMyQw\">this clip from Japanese TV\u003c/a>, which shows a session in Japan’s parliament when last months’ 9.0 earthquake struck. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Japanese earthquake early warning system had some bugs. For one thing, the sensors under-estimated the size of the massive earthquake. They also misjudged how much of the country would feel it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Still, to researchers who work on earthquake warning systems, what happened in Japan was proof: The systems work.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c!--more-->\u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv style=\"border-bottom:1px dotted #cecece;height:20px;margin-bottom:10px\"> \u003c/div>\n\u003cp>[jwplayer config=”QUEST Audio Player” skin=”http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/themes/quest/glow.zip” file=”http://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/quest/2011/04/2011-04-11-quest.mp3″ ]\u003cbr>\n\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>Listen to the QUEST radio story \u003cstrong>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/audio/earthquake-warning\">Earthquake Warning\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv style=\"border-bottom:1px dotted #cecece;height:20px;margin-bottom:10px\"> \u003c/div>\n\u003cp>The Sendai area, which was hardest hit, received about ten seconds. In Tokyo, farther from the epicenter, residents had 30 to 60 seconds before the worst of the shaking took place.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Here in California, we have no such system, which means if an earthquake were to hit here residents would have no warning at all.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This has been sort of percolating along in the seismological community for a long, long time,” says Douglas Given, a geophysicist with the United States Geological Survey. “But it’s only since about 2007 that we started working on it seriously here in the US.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The groundwork for a system is already in place. It’s a network of about 400 seismic monitoring sites, scattered across California. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One of them is near UC Berkeley, in a vault dug into the side of a hill. The vault was built during the cold war, to try and detect the vibrations of other countries’ nuclear tests. Today it houses instruments so sensitive that they can pick up shaking on the other side of the planet.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A couple years ago, I got a tour from Richard Allen, the assistant director of UC Berkeley’s Seismological Laboratory. (You can see photos of the vault in the slide show, below.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The way the early warning system works,” explained Allen, “is it makes use of the fact that the energy that radiates during an earthquake, there’s two types of energy.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The first are called P waves. They travel fast but are relatively weak. Then come S waves, which are sluggish but do a lot more damage. Once you know how fast the S waves are traveling, you can calculate when they’ll reach other parts of the state, and quickly send out a warning before the S waves arrive.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But here in California, that might not be a lot of time.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Unfortunately,” says Allen, “our faults go right beneath the metropolitan regions. If you’re right above the quake, even with an early warning system, you probably won’t get any warning.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But the farther away the epicenter, the more warning you get. Allen says if we’d had an early-warning system back in 1989, during the Loma Prieta quake, Oakland residents could have had 15 seconds of warning. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s enough time to close the toll plaza on the Bay Bridge, or to open up fire station doors, so they don’t jam shut during the earthquake. David Oppenheimer, a seismologist with the USGS in Menlo Park, says there’s a lot you can do with just few seconds.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“You really need to think about automatic applications,” he says, “elevators stopping at the next floor, doors opening, alarms in schools saying duck and cover with a voice telling you what to do.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And of, course, consider major surgery.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“One example that I always like to give because people cringe is what if someone’s performing cataract surgery on you, and obviously you’d like the surgeon to remove the scalpel away from your face.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In Japan, the alarm system automatically triggered a slow down of the country’s bullet trains. That’s probably why none of them derailed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>John McPartland who represents BART District 5, made the case last week at a meeting in Berkeley of earthquake early warning advocates.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If we don’t have this warning system,” he said, “and we’ve got trains that are traveling at 60-70 miles per hour, and we end up derailing 20 to 30 trains, that’s going to end up [causing] one heck of a doggone toll in injuries and misery.” \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So far, arguments like these have fallen on deaf ears in Congress.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Each year, the program gets about 500 thousand dollars, barely enough to continue basic research. Now, that line item has been cut entirely from the President’s latest budget proposal.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Unless Congress reinstates the funding, the early warning program will stay where it is, says Given, “held together with duct tape and bailing wire. It’s not a reliable system, or a complete system.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Getting the system up to speed would cost $80 million, over five years. Given and others who work on the program say it’s been a tough sell. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Japan, after all, didn’t start building its warning system until after the devastating Kobe quake in 1995. Same thing in Mexico, says Given. “After the 1985 Mexico City earthquake, there was suddenly — for some strange reason, maybe 8K fatalities? — a public will to move forward with the system.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It would be wise, he says, not to repeat that pattern here in the States.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s our hope that we can get sufficient interest and build a system without first having to have a killer earthquake.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>According to the USGS, the chance of a magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquake shaking California over the next 30 years is greater than 99 percent.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp> 37.457396 -122.169681\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"What would an earthquake early warning look like?","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1684974347,"stats":{"hasAudio":true,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":37,"wordCount":1023},"headData":{"title":"Earthquake Early Warning: What Could We Do With 15 Seconds? | KQED","description":"What would an earthquake early warning look like?","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"Earthquake Early Warning: What Could We Do With 15 Seconds?","datePublished":"2011-04-08T21:00:49.000Z","dateModified":"2023-05-25T00:25:47.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"templateType":"standard","featuredImageType":"standard","excludeFromSiteSearch":"Include","articleAge":"0","path":"/quest/13653/earthquake-warning-2","audioUrl":"http://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/quest/2011/04/2011-04-11-quest.mp3","audioDuration":null,"audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003cspan class=\"left\">\u003ca href=\"http://www.kqed.org/quest\">\u003cimg decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2011/04/earthquake3002.jpg\" alt=\"\">\u003c/a>\u003cem>Loma Prieta earthquake, Marina Diistrict of San Francisco, 1989. Courtesy of \u003ca href=\"http://www.flickr.com/photos/californiawatch/5572600126/\">California Watch.\u003c/a>\u003c/em>\u003c/span> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>What would a California earthquake early warning look like? \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Probably something like \u003ca href=\"http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rU1bYspMyQw\">this clip from Japanese TV\u003c/a>, which shows a session in Japan’s parliament when last months’ 9.0 earthquake struck. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Japanese earthquake early warning system had some bugs. For one thing, the sensors under-estimated the size of the massive earthquake. They also misjudged how much of the country would feel it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Still, to researchers who work on earthquake warning systems, what happened in Japan was proof: The systems work.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c!--more-->\u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv style=\"border-bottom:1px dotted #cecece;height:20px;margin-bottom:10px\"> \u003c/div>\n\u003cp>[jwplayer config=”QUEST Audio Player” skin=”http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/themes/quest/glow.zip” file=”http://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/quest/2011/04/2011-04-11-quest.mp3″ ]\u003cbr>\n\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>Listen to the QUEST radio story \u003cstrong>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/audio/earthquake-warning\">Earthquake Warning\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv style=\"border-bottom:1px dotted #cecece;height:20px;margin-bottom:10px\"> \u003c/div>\n\u003cp>The Sendai area, which was hardest hit, received about ten seconds. In Tokyo, farther from the epicenter, residents had 30 to 60 seconds before the worst of the shaking took place.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Here in California, we have no such system, which means if an earthquake were to hit here residents would have no warning at all.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This has been sort of percolating along in the seismological community for a long, long time,” says Douglas Given, a geophysicist with the United States Geological Survey. “But it’s only since about 2007 that we started working on it seriously here in the US.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The groundwork for a system is already in place. It’s a network of about 400 seismic monitoring sites, scattered across California. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One of them is near UC Berkeley, in a vault dug into the side of a hill. The vault was built during the cold war, to try and detect the vibrations of other countries’ nuclear tests. Today it houses instruments so sensitive that they can pick up shaking on the other side of the planet.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A couple years ago, I got a tour from Richard Allen, the assistant director of UC Berkeley’s Seismological Laboratory. (You can see photos of the vault in the slide show, below.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The way the early warning system works,” explained Allen, “is it makes use of the fact that the energy that radiates during an earthquake, there’s two types of energy.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The first are called P waves. They travel fast but are relatively weak. Then come S waves, which are sluggish but do a lot more damage. Once you know how fast the S waves are traveling, you can calculate when they’ll reach other parts of the state, and quickly send out a warning before the S waves arrive.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But here in California, that might not be a lot of time.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Unfortunately,” says Allen, “our faults go right beneath the metropolitan regions. If you’re right above the quake, even with an early warning system, you probably won’t get any warning.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But the farther away the epicenter, the more warning you get. Allen says if we’d had an early-warning system back in 1989, during the Loma Prieta quake, Oakland residents could have had 15 seconds of warning. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s enough time to close the toll plaza on the Bay Bridge, or to open up fire station doors, so they don’t jam shut during the earthquake. David Oppenheimer, a seismologist with the USGS in Menlo Park, says there’s a lot you can do with just few seconds.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“You really need to think about automatic applications,” he says, “elevators stopping at the next floor, doors opening, alarms in schools saying duck and cover with a voice telling you what to do.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And of, course, consider major surgery.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“One example that I always like to give because people cringe is what if someone’s performing cataract surgery on you, and obviously you’d like the surgeon to remove the scalpel away from your face.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In Japan, the alarm system automatically triggered a slow down of the country’s bullet trains. That’s probably why none of them derailed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>John McPartland who represents BART District 5, made the case last week at a meeting in Berkeley of earthquake early warning advocates.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If we don’t have this warning system,” he said, “and we’ve got trains that are traveling at 60-70 miles per hour, and we end up derailing 20 to 30 trains, that’s going to end up [causing] one heck of a doggone toll in injuries and misery.” \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So far, arguments like these have fallen on deaf ears in Congress.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Each year, the program gets about 500 thousand dollars, barely enough to continue basic research. Now, that line item has been cut entirely from the President’s latest budget proposal.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Unless Congress reinstates the funding, the early warning program will stay where it is, says Given, “held together with duct tape and bailing wire. It’s not a reliable system, or a complete system.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Getting the system up to speed would cost $80 million, over five years. Given and others who work on the program say it’s been a tough sell. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Japan, after all, didn’t start building its warning system until after the devastating Kobe quake in 1995. Same thing in Mexico, says Given. “After the 1985 Mexico City earthquake, there was suddenly — for some strange reason, maybe 8K fatalities? — a public will to move forward with the system.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It would be wise, he says, not to repeat that pattern here in the States.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s our hope that we can get sufficient interest and build a system without first having to have a killer earthquake.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>According to the USGS, the chance of a magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquake shaking California over the next 30 years is greater than 99 percent.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp> 37.457396 -122.169681\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/quest/13653/earthquake-warning-2","authors":["210"],"categories":["quest_11"],"tags":["quest_252","quest_776","quest_3551","quest_908","quest_909","quest_946","quest_2429","quest_3048"],"featImg":"quest_13663","label":"quest"},"quest_3830":{"type":"posts","id":"quest_3830","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"quest","id":"3830","score":null,"sort":[1255122022000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"reporters-notes-predicting-the-next-big-one","title":"Reporter's Notes: Predicting the Next Big One","publishDate":1255122022,"format":"standard","headTitle":"QUEST | KQED Science","labelTerm":{"site":"quest"},"content":"\u003cp>\u003cspan class=\"left\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/audio/predicting-the-next-big-one\">\u003cimg decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2009/10/radio4-1_earthquake300.jpeg\" alt=\"\">\u003c/a>\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Though I don't use it in the piece, the system of earthquake early warning we profiled – developed by UC Berkeley's Richard Allen, among others – has a name: \u003ca href=\"http://www.elarms.org/\">ElarmS\u003c/a>. One of my favorite parts of the ElarmS website is the \u003ca href=\"http://www.elarms.org/forms/applicationform.php\">page\u003c/a> where visitors are invited to submit their own ideas for how the system might be used.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I mention this because it illustrates an interesting fact about earthquake prediction, which is that it's not the technology \u003ca href=\"http://www.thetech.org/exhibits_events/online/quakes/waves/p&s_waves.html\">technology\u003c/a> (i.e., \u003ci>how\u003c/i> to predict an earthquake) that's still up for debate, it's what to do with the warning, once we have it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If Allen is right, three years from now ElarmS will be up and running, supplying some – if not a whole lot – of warning before quakes hit. But whether the rest of us receive that warning is largely out of ElarmS's hands. Will someone develop an iPhone app that'll announce the countdown in a GPS-like voice: 10, 9, 8? Will BART rig its system to ElarmS so that every train in the network starts slowing down, as soon as countdown begins? Will fire stations allow their doors to be automatically opened every time an alarm goes off? To borrow the USGS's David Oppenheimer's cringe-inducing example, will surgeons hear an alarm and lift their scalpels?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And what happens when false alarms – and they are inevitable - cause people to turn off their iPhone quake-warning apps, or complain about BART slowdowns? At a conference for environmental journalists last night, I chatted with two Mexicans about how their country has invested in an early-warning system. They rolled their eyes. \"If it only worked!\" Unfortunately, the price for working sometimes might be not working other times.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://earthquake.usgs.gov/aboutus/docs/020204mag_policy.php\">Here is a nice depiction of P-waves and S-waves\u003c/a>, if you want to learn more about how prediction (and earthquakes) work.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And here's a \u003ca href=\"http://www.cisn.org/\">link\u003c/a> to the California Integrated Seismic Network, which includes the vault I visited in the radio piece (and featured in the slde show below). \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cbr clear=\"all\">\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan class=\"left\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2009/10/09/reporters-notes-predicting-the-next-big-one/\">\u003cimg decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/images/radio_icon_light.gif\" alt=\"\">\u003c/a>\u003c/span>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/audio/predicting-the-next-big-one\">Listen to Predicting the Next Big One\u003c/a> radio report online.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"It's been twenty years since the Loma Prieta Earthquake ravaged downtown Santa Cruz and damaged San Francisco's Marina District and the Bay Bridge. Quest looks at the dramatic improvements in earthquake prediction technology since 1989. But what can be done with ten seconds of warning?","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1680588695,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":11,"wordCount":360},"headData":{"title":"Reporter's Notes: Predicting the Next Big One | KQED","description":"It's been twenty years since the Loma Prieta Earthquake ravaged downtown Santa Cruz and damaged San Francisco's Marina District and the Bay Bridge. Quest looks at the dramatic improvements in earthquake prediction technology since 1989. But what can be done with ten seconds of warning?","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"Reporter's Notes: Predicting the Next Big One","datePublished":"2009-10-09T21:00:22.000Z","dateModified":"2023-04-04T06:11:35.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"templateType":"standard","featuredImageType":"standard","excludeFromSiteSearch":"Include","articleAge":"0","path":"/quest/3830/reporters-notes-predicting-the-next-big-one","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003cspan class=\"left\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/audio/predicting-the-next-big-one\">\u003cimg decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2009/10/radio4-1_earthquake300.jpeg\" alt=\"\">\u003c/a>\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Though I don't use it in the piece, the system of earthquake early warning we profiled – developed by UC Berkeley's Richard Allen, among others – has a name: \u003ca href=\"http://www.elarms.org/\">ElarmS\u003c/a>. One of my favorite parts of the ElarmS website is the \u003ca href=\"http://www.elarms.org/forms/applicationform.php\">page\u003c/a> where visitors are invited to submit their own ideas for how the system might be used.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I mention this because it illustrates an interesting fact about earthquake prediction, which is that it's not the technology \u003ca href=\"http://www.thetech.org/exhibits_events/online/quakes/waves/p&s_waves.html\">technology\u003c/a> (i.e., \u003ci>how\u003c/i> to predict an earthquake) that's still up for debate, it's what to do with the warning, once we have it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If Allen is right, three years from now ElarmS will be up and running, supplying some – if not a whole lot – of warning before quakes hit. But whether the rest of us receive that warning is largely out of ElarmS's hands. Will someone develop an iPhone app that'll announce the countdown in a GPS-like voice: 10, 9, 8? Will BART rig its system to ElarmS so that every train in the network starts slowing down, as soon as countdown begins? Will fire stations allow their doors to be automatically opened every time an alarm goes off? To borrow the USGS's David Oppenheimer's cringe-inducing example, will surgeons hear an alarm and lift their scalpels?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And what happens when false alarms – and they are inevitable - cause people to turn off their iPhone quake-warning apps, or complain about BART slowdowns? At a conference for environmental journalists last night, I chatted with two Mexicans about how their country has invested in an early-warning system. They rolled their eyes. \"If it only worked!\" Unfortunately, the price for working sometimes might be not working other times.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://earthquake.usgs.gov/aboutus/docs/020204mag_policy.php\">Here is a nice depiction of P-waves and S-waves\u003c/a>, if you want to learn more about how prediction (and earthquakes) work.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And here's a \u003ca href=\"http://www.cisn.org/\">link\u003c/a> to the California Integrated Seismic Network, which includes the vault I visited in the radio piece (and featured in the slde show below). \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cbr clear=\"all\">\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan class=\"left\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2009/10/09/reporters-notes-predicting-the-next-big-one/\">\u003cimg decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/images/radio_icon_light.gif\" alt=\"\">\u003c/a>\u003c/span>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/audio/predicting-the-next-big-one\">Listen to Predicting the Next Big One\u003c/a> radio report online.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/quest/3830/reporters-notes-predicting-the-next-big-one","authors":["210"],"categories":["quest_1"],"tags":["quest_450","quest_608","quest_776","quest_908","quest_946","quest_1684","quest_2429","quest_3021","quest_3048"],"label":"quest"}},"programsReducer":{"possible":{"id":"possible","title":"Possible","info":"Possible is hosted by entrepreneur Reid Hoffman and writer Aria Finger. 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And you join us on the journey to find the answers.","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Bay-Curious-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg","imageAlt":"\"KQED Bay Curious","officialWebsiteLink":"/news/series/baycurious","meta":{"site":"news","source":"kqed","order":"4"},"link":"/podcasts/baycurious","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bay-curious/id1172473406","npr":"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/500557090/bay-curious","rss":"https://ww2.kqed.org/news/category/bay-curious-podcast/feed/podcast","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly93dzIua3FlZC5vcmcvbmV3cy9jYXRlZ29yeS9iYXktY3VyaW91cy1wb2RjYXN0L2ZlZWQvcG9kY2FzdA","stitcher":"https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/kqed/bay-curious","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/6O76IdmhixfijmhTZLIJ8k"}},"bbc-world-service":{"id":"bbc-world-service","title":"BBC World Service","info":"The day's top stories from BBC News compiled twice daily in the week, once at weekends.","airtime":"MON-FRI 9pm-10pm, TUE-FRI 1am-2am","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/BBC-World-Service-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/live:bbc_world_service","meta":{"site":"news","source":"BBC World Service"},"link":"/radio/program/bbc-world-service","subscribe":{"apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/global-news-podcast/id135067274?mt=2","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/BBC-World-Service-p455581/","rss":"https://podcasts.files.bbci.co.uk/p02nq0gn.rss"}},"code-switch-life-kit":{"id":"code-switch-life-kit","title":"Code Switch / Life Kit","info":"\u003cem>Code Switch\u003c/em>, which listeners will hear in the first part of the hour, has fearless and much-needed conversations about race. Hosted by journalists of color, the show tackles the subject of race head-on, exploring how it impacts every part of society — from politics and pop culture to history, sports and more.\u003cbr />\u003cbr />\u003cem>Life Kit\u003c/em>, which will be in the second part of the hour, guides you through spaces and feelings no one prepares you for — from finances to mental health, from workplace microaggressions to imposter syndrome, from relationships to parenting. The show features experts with real world experience and shares their knowledge. Because everyone needs a little help being human.\u003cbr />\u003cbr />\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/510312/codeswitch\">\u003cem>Code Switch\u003c/em> offical site and podcast\u003c/a>\u003cbr />\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/lifekit\">\u003cem>Life Kit\u003c/em> offical site and podcast\u003c/a>\u003cbr />","airtime":"SUN 9pm-10pm","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Code-Switch-Life-Kit-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","meta":{"site":"radio","source":"npr"},"link":"/radio/program/code-switch-life-kit","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/1112190608?mt=2&at=11l79Y&ct=nprdirectory","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnByLm9yZy9yc3MvcG9kY2FzdC5waHA_aWQ9NTEwMzEy","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/3bExJ9JQpkwNhoHvaIIuyV","rss":"https://feeds.npr.org/510312/podcast.xml"}},"commonwealth-club":{"id":"commonwealth-club","title":"Commonwealth Club of California Podcast","info":"The Commonwealth Club of California is the nation's oldest and largest public affairs forum. 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This podcast feed is usually updated twice a week and is always un-edited.","airtime":"THU 10pm, FRI 1am","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Commonwealth-Club-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.commonwealthclub.org/podcasts","meta":{"site":"news","source":"Commonwealth Club of California"},"link":"/radio/program/commonwealth-club","subscribe":{"apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/commonwealth-club-of-california-podcast/id976334034?mt=2","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cDovL3d3dy5jb21tb253ZWFsdGhjbHViLm9yZy9hdWRpby9wb2RjYXN0L3dlZWtseS54bWw","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/Commonwealth-Club-of-California-p1060/"}},"considerthis":{"id":"considerthis","title":"Consider This","tagline":"Make sense of the day","info":"Make sense of the day. Every weekday afternoon, Consider This helps you consider the major stories of the day in less than 15 minutes, featuring the reporting and storytelling resources of NPR. 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