Kickstarting Science: Crowdfunded Research Explores Potential Health Impacts of Coal Trains
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Q & A - How Will the Solar Industry Shake Out?
Looming Trade War Shakes Up U.S. Solar Industry
Is the Climate Right for Efficiency in China?
Amateur Molecular Biologists
Mittens for Bears and Other Tales
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In 2010 he spent five weeks exploring the Democratic Republic of the Congo for a documentary project and developed an appreciation for the taste of curried caterpillars.","avatar":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/fc0abc1f27f40bdc9d4e0c17fcbe26b1?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twitter":null,"facebook":null,"instagram":null,"linkedin":null,"sites":[{"site":"quest","roles":["coordinator","subscriber"]}],"headData":{"title":"Michael James Werner | KQED","description":null,"ogImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/fc0abc1f27f40bdc9d4e0c17fcbe26b1?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/fc0abc1f27f40bdc9d4e0c17fcbe26b1?s=600&d=blank&r=g"},"isLoading":false,"link":"/author/michaeljameswerner"}},"breakingNewsReducer":{},"campaignFinanceReducer":{},"firebase":{"requesting":{},"requested":{},"timestamps":{},"data":{},"ordered":{},"auth":{"isLoaded":false,"isEmpty":true},"authError":null,"profile":{"isLoaded":false,"isEmpty":true},"listeners":{"byId":{},"allIds":[]},"isInitializing":false,"errors":[]},"navBarReducer":{"navBarId":"home","fullView":true,"showPlayer":false},"navMenuReducer":{"menus":[{"key":"menu1","items":[{"name":"News","link":"/","type":"title"},{"name":"Politics","link":"/politics"},{"name":"Science","link":"/science"},{"name":"Education","link":"/educationnews"},{"name":"Housing","link":"/housing"},{"name":"Immigration","link":"/immigration"},{"name":"Criminal Justice","link":"/criminaljustice"},{"name":"Silicon Valley","link":"/siliconvalley"},{"name":"Forum","link":"/forum"},{"name":"The California Report","link":"/californiareport"}]},{"key":"menu2","items":[{"name":"Arts & Culture","link":"/arts","type":"title"},{"name":"Critics’ Picks","link":"/thedolist"},{"name":"Cultural Commentary","link":"/artscommentary"},{"name":"Food & Drink","link":"/food"},{"name":"Bay Area Hip-Hop","link":"/bayareahiphop"},{"name":"Rebel Girls","link":"/rebelgirls"},{"name":"Arts Video","link":"/artsvideos"}]},{"key":"menu3","items":[{"name":"Podcasts","link":"/podcasts","type":"title"},{"name":"Bay Curious","link":"/podcasts/baycurious"},{"name":"Rightnowish","link":"/podcasts/rightnowish"},{"name":"The Bay","link":"/podcasts/thebay"},{"name":"On Our Watch","link":"/podcasts/onourwatch"},{"name":"Mindshift","link":"/podcasts/mindshift"},{"name":"Consider This","link":"/podcasts/considerthis"},{"name":"Political Breakdown","link":"/podcasts/politicalbreakdown"}]},{"key":"menu4","items":[{"name":"Live Radio","link":"/radio","type":"title"},{"name":"TV","link":"/tv","type":"title"},{"name":"Events","link":"/events","type":"title"},{"name":"For Educators","link":"/education","type":"title"},{"name":"Support KQED","link":"/support","type":"title"},{"name":"About","link":"/about","type":"title"},{"name":"Help Center","link":"https://kqed-helpcenter.kqed.org/s","type":"title"}]}]},"pagesReducer":{},"postsReducer":{"stream_live":{"type":"live","id":"stream_live","audioUrl":"https://streams.kqed.org/kqedradio","title":"Live Stream","excerpt":"Live Stream information currently unavailable.","link":"/radio","featImg":"","label":{"name":"KQED Live","link":"/"}},"stream_kqedNewscast":{"type":"posts","id":"stream_kqedNewscast","audioUrl":"https://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/RDnews/newscast.mp3?_=1","title":"KQED Newscast","featImg":"","label":{"name":"88.5 FM","link":"/"}},"quest_57938":{"type":"posts","id":"quest_57938","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"quest","id":"57938","score":null,"sort":[1384182035000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"kickstarting-science-crowdfunded-research-explores-potential-health-impacts-of-coal-trains","title":"Kickstarting Science: Crowdfunded Research Explores Potential Health Impacts of Coal Trains","publishDate":1384182035,"format":"aside","headTitle":"QUEST | KQED Science","labelTerm":{"site":"quest"},"content":"\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_63157\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/07/Kickstarting4_small.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-full wp-image-63157 \" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/07/Kickstarting4_small.jpg\" alt=\"coal train Wyoming\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/07/Kickstarting4_small.jpg 640w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/07/Kickstarting4_small-400x225.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A train is loaded with coal at a mine in Wyoming’s Powder River Basin.\u003cbr>Courtesy KCTS 9 / Earthfix\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>In recent years crowdfunding -- raising money for a project from a number of small donors, usually online -- has become a popular way to raise capital for business start-ups and artistic endeavors. Now scientists are also turning to this method to help pay for critical research.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This year Dan Jaffe, a University of Washington professor of atmospheric sciences, is reaping the rewards of crowdfunding. He and his team are studying the air pollution emitted by passing coal trains. The money for the project came entirely from small online donors. “I was surprised how well this worked,” Jaffe said. “We’re never going to fund a new superconducting particle collider with this, but it definitely has a place.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Jaffe’s study is specifically related to plans to build large coal-export terminals around the Pacific Northwest -- plans that have become a lightning rod for controversy because of potential public health risks. The facilities would ship coal from Wyoming’s Powder River Basin to lucrative markets in Asia. But to get the coal from Wyoming to export terminals in Washington and Oregon, the coal would have to be moved by open-topped rail cars. Between 18 and 37 coal trains a day would rumble across the West, passing through population centers like Seattle and Portland. The public has expressed concern about the clouds of coal dust and other pollutants that these coal trains might leave in their wake. But when Jaffe looked into it he found almost no research on the topic.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_63177\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 405px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/07/Kickstarting1_small.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\" wp-image-63177 \" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/07/Kickstarting1_small-450x253.jpg\" alt=\"coal train BNSF export Portland Seattle\" width=\"405\" height=\"228\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">If coal export facilities are built in the Northwest, between 18 and 37 coal trains a day could rumble across the West, passing through population centers like Seattle and Portland. Photo courtesy KCTS 9 / Earthfix\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“It’s not my job to advocate a decision on this issue,” Jaffe said. “But I wanted to know if we have enough information about coal trains and the impact on air quality to make a decision on whether to permit these terminals. And we clearly do not.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Jaffe took his concerns to state and national agencies and asked them to fund a study on how coal trains impact air quality. When they declined, he signed up for an account on \u003ca href=\"https://www.microryza.com/projects/do-coal-and-diesel-trains-make-for-unhealthy-air\">microryza.com\u003c/a>, a crowdfunding platform for scientists. The goal was to raise $18,000 for the research, and within a matter of days the project was fully funded. To date, more than $20,000 has been pledged by 271 small donors. “I didn’t even realize there was a crowdfunding platform for science until this came up,” said Alexis Bonogofsky, a Montana-based conservationist who contributed to the project via Microryza. “I feel like this democratizes science and it allows scientists to respond very quickly to questions we need to know now.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The money allowed Jaffe and a team of undergraduates to set up air-quality monitoring devices near rail lines around Seattle and the Columbia River Gorge. Over the course of five weeks the team measured emissions from roughly 500 passing freight, coal, and passenger trains. The results were surprising: diesel emissions appeared to have a significant impact on air quality while coal dust emissions did not. Jaffe and his team found diesel emissions coming from passing trains to be about 25 percent higher than the Environmental Protection Agency’s estimates.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_63180\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 405px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/07/Kickstarting2_small.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\" wp-image-63180\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/07/Kickstarting2_small-450x253.jpg\" alt=\"Dan Jaffe coal train Seattle\" width=\"405\" height=\"228\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">University of Washington professor Dan Jaffe measures air quality over rail lines outside Seattle. Photo courtesy KCTS-9 / Earthfix\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“No matter how you slice it, if you’re living right along the tracks your exposure to diesel particulate is significant. And if you add even more coal trains to the mix, that’s going to go up significantly,” Jaffe said. “For these homes in north Seattle that are right along the tracks, their exposure is comparable to if they lived in the most industrial part of Seattle.” Conversely, there did not appear to be much coal dust in the air near the rail lines Jaffe studied. “That seems to be a non-issue,” Jaffe said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Although the coal train research has been successful, Jaffe warns that crowdfunding isn’t a quick cure-all for every project starved for funds. To use Microryza and other crowdfunding sites effectively, researchers must spend considerable time communicating with donors and generating publicity about their projects. “If I had to raise all of my team’s funding this way, there would be no time to do anything else,” Jaffe said. In addition, only certain types of projects are well suited to raising money in this fashion. “These (crowdfunded) projects have to be things that capture the public’s interest. And they have to be done with relatively small amounts of money,” Jaffe said. “A lot of the projects I do won’t work for crowdfunding.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But for this particular project, the stars -- and the crowds -- aligned. “These coal terminals and the coal trains are a major environmental issue in the Northwest,” Jaffe said, “and yet the government doesn’t want to step up to the plate, for whatever reason, and fund the research on it. So I was very happy to see the public support to do science.”\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Scientists and researchers are turning to new and innovative online funding methods to pay for their projects. And the public is buying in.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1394136995,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":11,"wordCount":914},"headData":{"title":"Kickstarting Science: Crowdfunded Research Explores Potential Health Impacts of Coal Trains | KQED","description":"Scientists and researchers are turning to new and innovative online funding methods to pay for their projects. And the public is buying in.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"disqusIdentifier":"57938 http://science.kqed.org/quest/?p=57938","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2013/11/11/kickstarting-science-crowdfunded-research-explores-potential-health-impacts-of-coal-trains/","disqusTitle":"Kickstarting Science: Crowdfunded Research Explores Potential Health Impacts of Coal Trains","path":"/quest/57938/kickstarting-science-crowdfunded-research-explores-potential-health-impacts-of-coal-trains","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_63157\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/07/Kickstarting4_small.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-full wp-image-63157 \" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/07/Kickstarting4_small.jpg\" alt=\"coal train Wyoming\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/07/Kickstarting4_small.jpg 640w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/07/Kickstarting4_small-400x225.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A train is loaded with coal at a mine in Wyoming’s Powder River Basin.\u003cbr>Courtesy KCTS 9 / Earthfix\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>In recent years crowdfunding -- raising money for a project from a number of small donors, usually online -- has become a popular way to raise capital for business start-ups and artistic endeavors. Now scientists are also turning to this method to help pay for critical research.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This year Dan Jaffe, a University of Washington professor of atmospheric sciences, is reaping the rewards of crowdfunding. He and his team are studying the air pollution emitted by passing coal trains. The money for the project came entirely from small online donors. “I was surprised how well this worked,” Jaffe said. “We’re never going to fund a new superconducting particle collider with this, but it definitely has a place.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Jaffe’s study is specifically related to plans to build large coal-export terminals around the Pacific Northwest -- plans that have become a lightning rod for controversy because of potential public health risks. The facilities would ship coal from Wyoming’s Powder River Basin to lucrative markets in Asia. But to get the coal from Wyoming to export terminals in Washington and Oregon, the coal would have to be moved by open-topped rail cars. Between 18 and 37 coal trains a day would rumble across the West, passing through population centers like Seattle and Portland. The public has expressed concern about the clouds of coal dust and other pollutants that these coal trains might leave in their wake. But when Jaffe looked into it he found almost no research on the topic.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_63177\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 405px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/07/Kickstarting1_small.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\" wp-image-63177 \" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/07/Kickstarting1_small-450x253.jpg\" alt=\"coal train BNSF export Portland Seattle\" width=\"405\" height=\"228\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">If coal export facilities are built in the Northwest, between 18 and 37 coal trains a day could rumble across the West, passing through population centers like Seattle and Portland. Photo courtesy KCTS 9 / Earthfix\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“It’s not my job to advocate a decision on this issue,” Jaffe said. “But I wanted to know if we have enough information about coal trains and the impact on air quality to make a decision on whether to permit these terminals. And we clearly do not.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Jaffe took his concerns to state and national agencies and asked them to fund a study on how coal trains impact air quality. When they declined, he signed up for an account on \u003ca href=\"https://www.microryza.com/projects/do-coal-and-diesel-trains-make-for-unhealthy-air\">microryza.com\u003c/a>, a crowdfunding platform for scientists. The goal was to raise $18,000 for the research, and within a matter of days the project was fully funded. To date, more than $20,000 has been pledged by 271 small donors. “I didn’t even realize there was a crowdfunding platform for science until this came up,” said Alexis Bonogofsky, a Montana-based conservationist who contributed to the project via Microryza. “I feel like this democratizes science and it allows scientists to respond very quickly to questions we need to know now.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The money allowed Jaffe and a team of undergraduates to set up air-quality monitoring devices near rail lines around Seattle and the Columbia River Gorge. Over the course of five weeks the team measured emissions from roughly 500 passing freight, coal, and passenger trains. The results were surprising: diesel emissions appeared to have a significant impact on air quality while coal dust emissions did not. Jaffe and his team found diesel emissions coming from passing trains to be about 25 percent higher than the Environmental Protection Agency’s estimates.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_63180\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 405px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/07/Kickstarting2_small.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\" wp-image-63180\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/07/Kickstarting2_small-450x253.jpg\" alt=\"Dan Jaffe coal train Seattle\" width=\"405\" height=\"228\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">University of Washington professor Dan Jaffe measures air quality over rail lines outside Seattle. Photo courtesy KCTS-9 / Earthfix\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“No matter how you slice it, if you’re living right along the tracks your exposure to diesel particulate is significant. And if you add even more coal trains to the mix, that’s going to go up significantly,” Jaffe said. “For these homes in north Seattle that are right along the tracks, their exposure is comparable to if they lived in the most industrial part of Seattle.” Conversely, there did not appear to be much coal dust in the air near the rail lines Jaffe studied. “That seems to be a non-issue,” Jaffe said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Although the coal train research has been successful, Jaffe warns that crowdfunding isn’t a quick cure-all for every project starved for funds. To use Microryza and other crowdfunding sites effectively, researchers must spend considerable time communicating with donors and generating publicity about their projects. “If I had to raise all of my team’s funding this way, there would be no time to do anything else,” Jaffe said. In addition, only certain types of projects are well suited to raising money in this fashion. “These (crowdfunded) projects have to be things that capture the public’s interest. And they have to be done with relatively small amounts of money,” Jaffe said. “A lot of the projects I do won’t work for crowdfunding.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But for this particular project, the stars -- and the crowds -- aligned. “These coal terminals and the coal trains are a major environmental issue in the Northwest,” Jaffe said, “and yet the government doesn’t want to step up to the plate, for whatever reason, and fund the research on it. So I was very happy to see the public support to do science.”\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/quest/57938/kickstarting-science-crowdfunded-research-explores-potential-health-impacts-of-coal-trains","authors":["10446"],"categories":["quest_11765","quest_9","quest_12"],"tags":["quest_94","quest_582","quest_621","quest_638","quest_12391","quest_10220","quest_12389","quest_828","quest_12500","quest_12502","quest_12269","quest_1273","quest_13201","quest_12390","quest_12501","quest_12388","quest_3288","quest_2530","quest_13365","quest_2975"],"featImg":"quest_63157","label":"quest"},"quest_55640":{"type":"posts","id":"quest_55640","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"quest","id":"55640","score":null,"sort":[1380027608000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"the-world-with-us-can-the-earth-support-eleven-billion","title":"The World with Us: Can the Earth Support Eleven Billion?","publishDate":1380027608,"format":"aside","headTitle":"QUEST | KQED Science","labelTerm":{"site":"quest"},"content":"\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_60364\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 664px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/06/Global-Population-photo-India--e1378927022563.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\" wp-image-60364 \" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/06/Global-Population-photo-India--e1378927184520.jpg\" alt=\"A grandfather in India enjoys the company of his grandson. \" width=\"664\" height=\"374\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/06/Global-Population-photo-India--e1378927184520.jpg 1536w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/06/Global-Population-photo-India--e1378927184520-400x226.jpg 400w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/06/Global-Population-photo-India--e1378927184520-800x452.jpg 800w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/06/Global-Population-photo-India--e1378927184520-1440x813.jpg 1440w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/06/Global-Population-photo-India--e1378927184520-1180x666.jpg 1180w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/06/Global-Population-photo-India--e1378927184520-960x542.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 664px) 100vw, 664px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A grandfather in India with his grandson. India is the second most populous country in the world and is projected to surpass China as the most populous country by 2050. Photo: Dibyendu Dey Choudhury, courtesy of Photoshare.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003ch2>\u003cspan style=\"color: #888888\">\u003cstrong>An Expert Opinion: \u003c/strong>\u003c/span>\u003cstrong>Alan Weisman\u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>\u003cem>On a cobblestone street in Buenos Aires, Argentina, journalist and professor \u003ca href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Weisman\">Alan Weisman\u003c/a> stepped into a cafe to meet me for an interview. His book \u003ca href=\"http://www.amazon.com/The-World-Without-Alan-Weisman/dp/0312347294/ref=pd_sim_b_4\">\u003cem>The World Without Us\u003c/em>\u003c/a> had just hit Latin American book stands and as pedestrians navigated the \u003ca href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Telmo\">Bohemian neighborhood\u003c/a> outside, we discussed what a world without humans would look like. That was back in 2008. It’s five years later and I was just as anxious to discuss the sequel, \u003ca href=\"http://www.amazon.com/Countdown-Last-Best-Future-Earth/dp/031623981X\">\u003cem>Countdown\u003c/em>\u003c/a>, which hits shelves today. His latest book suggests limiting population growth in a world that now harbors seven billion people. From his home in Western Massachusetts, he talked about women’s rights, culture, a global population that \u003ca href=\"http://esa.un.org/wpp/\">may reach 11 billion\u003c/a> by 2100 and what he sees as a reasonable path forward.\u003c/em>\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_60359\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 288px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/06/Alan-Weisman-Golestan-National-Park.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\" wp-image-60359 \" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/06/Alan-Weisman-Golestan-National-Park.jpg\" alt=\"Alan Weisman examines a tree in Golestan National Park in Iran. Ecology is a central feature of his book Countdown, which asks which species do we need to keep around to ensure our survival? Photo: Beckie Kravetz\" width=\"288\" height=\"367\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/06/Alan-Weisman-Golestan-National-Park.jpg 1111w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/06/Alan-Weisman-Golestan-National-Park-400x510.jpg 400w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/06/Alan-Weisman-Golestan-National-Park-800x1020.jpg 800w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/06/Alan-Weisman-Golestan-National-Park-960x1224.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 288px) 100vw, 288px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Alan Weisman examines a tree in Golestan National Park in Iran. Ecology is a central feature of his book Countdown, which asks which species are crucial to our survival? Photo: Beckie Kravetz\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Q: In \u003cem>The World Without Us\u003c/em>, at the end you say, “every four days there are a million more people on this planet.” And you ask, “is there some way that we can have a restored earth and be part of it?” Can you talk more about this?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I didn’t want to write \u003cem>The World Without Us\u003c/em> because I want [a world without people]. I wanted us to see how beautiful the world is and [consider] if we could add ourselves back in the picture in a more harmonious way.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>You might recall from \u003cem>The World Without Us\u003c/em>, an interview I did with a guy from the \u003ca href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voluntary_Human_Extinction_Movement\">Volunteer Human Extinction Movement\u003c/a>, and the best thing he said we could do is stop procreating. That we’re pushing so many species off the planet and we’re going to push something off [that we rely on] and we won’t realize it until it’s too late.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So to prevent against this, why don’t we stop procreating and we’ll become fewer and fewer and the last remaining humans will essentially see the Garden of Eden. I wanted to know, is there a happy medium between what he said and what’s realistic?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At book signings everyone would ask me about the population thing and I really didn’t want to write about population but then I thought, what the heck, I’ll write it out. When I got into it, I had no idea how complicated it was, my fifty page proposal was so naïve. I knew so little about this. Five years and 21 countries later I had this book [Countdown].\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Q: A \u003c/strong>\u003ca href=\"http://thebreakthrough.org/index.php/programs/conservation-and-development/population-bomb-so-wrong/\">\u003cstrong>recent article\u003c/strong>\u003c/a>\u003cstrong> cited \u003c/strong>\u003cstrong>a global trend of lower population growth, where the author said,\u003c/strong>\u003cstrong> “\u003c/strong>\u003cstrong>I find it extraordinary that the massive global drop in human fertility has been so little noticed by the media.” So how concerned should we really be?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A lot of experts would say, really there’s no problem, our growth rate is way down. On the one hand, those people are right. However, there are so many of us on the planet right now, and an average of \u003ca href=\"https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2127.html\">2.6 children\u003c/a> per female still means we’re growing.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And even at a lower rate, the question is, are we still putting too much stress on the environment?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I wanted to know, is there a way to convince a huge panorama of cultures that it might be in their best interest to encourage people, in some culturally acceptable way, to keep their reproduction on a sustainable level?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So I had to go visit a whole wide variety of cultures to understand. So many of us immediately think of the \u003ca href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-child_policy\">one child policy\u003c/a> and most people don’t like it because it’s so Draconian. But for all its imperfections it has functioned. It wouldn’t work in other cultures, so what are other alternatives?\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_60348\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 374px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/06/WorldPopulationScenarios1950to2100.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\" wp-image-60348 \" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/06/WorldPopulationScenarios1950to2100.jpg\" alt=\"Image courtesy: Benjamin Hennig\" width=\"374\" height=\"298\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/06/WorldPopulationScenarios1950to2100.jpg 445w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/06/WorldPopulationScenarios1950to2100-400x318.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 374px) 100vw, 374px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Image courtesy: Benjamin Hennig\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Q: With a few exceptions, we are not good at planning for the future and by the future I mean for 250 years down the road. You ask, “might we benefit right now by bringing population down?”\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To be fair, we should cut ourselves some slack. The idea of having to manage our species because we’re running out of room is something we’ve never had to do before.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On the one hand, the benefits will come long term. Even if we did a policy like China’s it will take two generations to get back to levels in the 1900s, but the levels would come down in the first 50 years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s what is happening now in Japan. They \u003ca href=\"http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2009/10/20/reference/abortion-still-key-birth-control/#.UikyZTash8E\">legalized abortion after WWII\u003c/a> because they had too many people. The result of cutting off their baby boom, 60 years later, is that they are seeing their population begin to drop.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Q: In a lot of ways, your book is ultimately about education and women’s rights.\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I’m convinced; it’s the most hopeful thing in the world. Make access to contraception universal for women and it will solve enormous problems on this planet. It will bring down birthrates to a sustainable and manageable level.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If we can educate all the women in the world, think of all the brilliant thinking and human ingenuity that will be added.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>\u003c/strong>\u003cstrong>Q. When we talked in 2008, after \u003cem>A World Without Us\u003c/em> came out, you were hopeful about the future. Are you still hopeful?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I don’t think my species is facing imminent extinction, though frankly we’ve really rolled the dice with the atmosphere and the ocean in terms of climate, and none of us know how that will go.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We’re an incredibly adaptable species; we’ve figured out how to live from the poles to the equator. We’ll probably be moving to higher ground this century. That will require an adjustment. We’re going to lose food producing areas because of flooding or salt water intrusion. It’s going to be a challenge.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Maybe it’s just my hope speaking but I expect my species to survive. This century is going to be a century of decisions for us in many ways.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Journalist Alan Weisman's latest book, Countdown, explores how we can sustainably manage a population of seven billion people.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1380027617,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":24,"wordCount":1117},"headData":{"title":"The World with Us: Can the Earth Support Eleven Billion? | KQED","description":"Journalist Alan Weisman's latest book, Countdown, explores how we can sustainably manage a population of seven billion people.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"disqusIdentifier":"55640 http://science.kqed.org/quest/?p=55640","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2013/09/24/the-world-with-us-can-the-earth-support-eleven-billion/","disqusTitle":"The World with Us: Can the Earth Support Eleven Billion?","path":"/quest/55640/the-world-with-us-can-the-earth-support-eleven-billion","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_60364\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 664px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/06/Global-Population-photo-India--e1378927022563.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\" wp-image-60364 \" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/06/Global-Population-photo-India--e1378927184520.jpg\" alt=\"A grandfather in India enjoys the company of his grandson. \" width=\"664\" height=\"374\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/06/Global-Population-photo-India--e1378927184520.jpg 1536w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/06/Global-Population-photo-India--e1378927184520-400x226.jpg 400w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/06/Global-Population-photo-India--e1378927184520-800x452.jpg 800w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/06/Global-Population-photo-India--e1378927184520-1440x813.jpg 1440w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/06/Global-Population-photo-India--e1378927184520-1180x666.jpg 1180w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/06/Global-Population-photo-India--e1378927184520-960x542.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 664px) 100vw, 664px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A grandfather in India with his grandson. India is the second most populous country in the world and is projected to surpass China as the most populous country by 2050. Photo: Dibyendu Dey Choudhury, courtesy of Photoshare.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003ch2>\u003cspan style=\"color: #888888\">\u003cstrong>An Expert Opinion: \u003c/strong>\u003c/span>\u003cstrong>Alan Weisman\u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>\u003cem>On a cobblestone street in Buenos Aires, Argentina, journalist and professor \u003ca href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Weisman\">Alan Weisman\u003c/a> stepped into a cafe to meet me for an interview. His book \u003ca href=\"http://www.amazon.com/The-World-Without-Alan-Weisman/dp/0312347294/ref=pd_sim_b_4\">\u003cem>The World Without Us\u003c/em>\u003c/a> had just hit Latin American book stands and as pedestrians navigated the \u003ca href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Telmo\">Bohemian neighborhood\u003c/a> outside, we discussed what a world without humans would look like. That was back in 2008. It’s five years later and I was just as anxious to discuss the sequel, \u003ca href=\"http://www.amazon.com/Countdown-Last-Best-Future-Earth/dp/031623981X\">\u003cem>Countdown\u003c/em>\u003c/a>, which hits shelves today. His latest book suggests limiting population growth in a world that now harbors seven billion people. From his home in Western Massachusetts, he talked about women’s rights, culture, a global population that \u003ca href=\"http://esa.un.org/wpp/\">may reach 11 billion\u003c/a> by 2100 and what he sees as a reasonable path forward.\u003c/em>\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_60359\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 288px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/06/Alan-Weisman-Golestan-National-Park.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\" wp-image-60359 \" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/06/Alan-Weisman-Golestan-National-Park.jpg\" alt=\"Alan Weisman examines a tree in Golestan National Park in Iran. Ecology is a central feature of his book Countdown, which asks which species do we need to keep around to ensure our survival? Photo: Beckie Kravetz\" width=\"288\" height=\"367\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/06/Alan-Weisman-Golestan-National-Park.jpg 1111w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/06/Alan-Weisman-Golestan-National-Park-400x510.jpg 400w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/06/Alan-Weisman-Golestan-National-Park-800x1020.jpg 800w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/06/Alan-Weisman-Golestan-National-Park-960x1224.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 288px) 100vw, 288px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Alan Weisman examines a tree in Golestan National Park in Iran. Ecology is a central feature of his book Countdown, which asks which species are crucial to our survival? Photo: Beckie Kravetz\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Q: In \u003cem>The World Without Us\u003c/em>, at the end you say, “every four days there are a million more people on this planet.” And you ask, “is there some way that we can have a restored earth and be part of it?” Can you talk more about this?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I didn’t want to write \u003cem>The World Without Us\u003c/em> because I want [a world without people]. I wanted us to see how beautiful the world is and [consider] if we could add ourselves back in the picture in a more harmonious way.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>You might recall from \u003cem>The World Without Us\u003c/em>, an interview I did with a guy from the \u003ca href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voluntary_Human_Extinction_Movement\">Volunteer Human Extinction Movement\u003c/a>, and the best thing he said we could do is stop procreating. That we’re pushing so many species off the planet and we’re going to push something off [that we rely on] and we won’t realize it until it’s too late.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So to prevent against this, why don’t we stop procreating and we’ll become fewer and fewer and the last remaining humans will essentially see the Garden of Eden. I wanted to know, is there a happy medium between what he said and what’s realistic?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At book signings everyone would ask me about the population thing and I really didn’t want to write about population but then I thought, what the heck, I’ll write it out. When I got into it, I had no idea how complicated it was, my fifty page proposal was so naïve. I knew so little about this. Five years and 21 countries later I had this book [Countdown].\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Q: A \u003c/strong>\u003ca href=\"http://thebreakthrough.org/index.php/programs/conservation-and-development/population-bomb-so-wrong/\">\u003cstrong>recent article\u003c/strong>\u003c/a>\u003cstrong> cited \u003c/strong>\u003cstrong>a global trend of lower population growth, where the author said,\u003c/strong>\u003cstrong> “\u003c/strong>\u003cstrong>I find it extraordinary that the massive global drop in human fertility has been so little noticed by the media.” So how concerned should we really be?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A lot of experts would say, really there’s no problem, our growth rate is way down. On the one hand, those people are right. However, there are so many of us on the planet right now, and an average of \u003ca href=\"https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2127.html\">2.6 children\u003c/a> per female still means we’re growing.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And even at a lower rate, the question is, are we still putting too much stress on the environment?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I wanted to know, is there a way to convince a huge panorama of cultures that it might be in their best interest to encourage people, in some culturally acceptable way, to keep their reproduction on a sustainable level?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So I had to go visit a whole wide variety of cultures to understand. So many of us immediately think of the \u003ca href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-child_policy\">one child policy\u003c/a> and most people don’t like it because it’s so Draconian. But for all its imperfections it has functioned. It wouldn’t work in other cultures, so what are other alternatives?\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_60348\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 374px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/06/WorldPopulationScenarios1950to2100.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\" wp-image-60348 \" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/06/WorldPopulationScenarios1950to2100.jpg\" alt=\"Image courtesy: Benjamin Hennig\" width=\"374\" height=\"298\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/06/WorldPopulationScenarios1950to2100.jpg 445w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/06/WorldPopulationScenarios1950to2100-400x318.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 374px) 100vw, 374px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Image courtesy: Benjamin Hennig\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Q: With a few exceptions, we are not good at planning for the future and by the future I mean for 250 years down the road. You ask, “might we benefit right now by bringing population down?”\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To be fair, we should cut ourselves some slack. The idea of having to manage our species because we’re running out of room is something we’ve never had to do before.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On the one hand, the benefits will come long term. Even if we did a policy like China’s it will take two generations to get back to levels in the 1900s, but the levels would come down in the first 50 years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s what is happening now in Japan. They \u003ca href=\"http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2009/10/20/reference/abortion-still-key-birth-control/#.UikyZTash8E\">legalized abortion after WWII\u003c/a> because they had too many people. The result of cutting off their baby boom, 60 years later, is that they are seeing their population begin to drop.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Q: In a lot of ways, your book is ultimately about education and women’s rights.\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I’m convinced; it’s the most hopeful thing in the world. Make access to contraception universal for women and it will solve enormous problems on this planet. It will bring down birthrates to a sustainable and manageable level.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If we can educate all the women in the world, think of all the brilliant thinking and human ingenuity that will be added.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>\u003c/strong>\u003cstrong>Q. When we talked in 2008, after \u003cem>A World Without Us\u003c/em> came out, you were hopeful about the future. Are you still hopeful?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I don’t think my species is facing imminent extinction, though frankly we’ve really rolled the dice with the atmosphere and the ocean in terms of climate, and none of us know how that will go.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We’re an incredibly adaptable species; we’ve figured out how to live from the poles to the equator. We’ll probably be moving to higher ground this century. That will require an adjustment. We’re going to lose food producing areas because of flooding or salt water intrusion. It’s going to be a challenge.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"floatright"},"numeric":["floatright"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Maybe it’s just my hope speaking but I expect my species to survive. This century is going to be a century of decisions for us in many ways.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/quest/55640/the-world-with-us-can-the-earth-support-eleven-billion","authors":["5432"],"categories":["quest_4","quest_9"],"tags":["quest_12253","quest_326","quest_582","quest_12255","quest_12269","quest_12252","quest_3351","quest_2141","quest_12250","quest_12251","quest_2349","quest_13202","quest_12254"],"featImg":"quest_60455","label":"quest"},"quest_47196":{"type":"posts","id":"quest_47196","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"quest","id":"47196","score":null,"sort":[1353114732000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"china%e2%80%99s-%e2%80%98gridlock%e2%80%99-may-slow-conversion-to-clean-energy","title":"China’s ‘Gridlock’ May Slow Conversion to Clean Energy","publishDate":1353114732,"format":"aside","headTitle":"Sustainable China | QUEST | KQED Science","labelTerm":{"term":11609,"site":"quest"},"content":"\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Similar challenges could confront California\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_47201\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 337px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/11/16/china%e2%80%99s-%e2%80%98gridlock%e2%80%99-may-slow-conversion-to-clean-energy/china_grid_sm/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-47201\">\u003cimg class=\"size-medium wp-image-47201\" title=\"China_grid_sm\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/China_grid_sm-337x253.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"337\" height=\"253\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The source of China's electricity--largely coal-fired power plants--is also a major reason for its poor air quality. (Photo: Marjorie Sun)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>As recent events on the East Coast have graphically shown, the “grid” that provides our electricity can be a fragile thing. Building a modern, more resilient version will cost hundreds of billions of dollars—but most agree it’s essential to a cleaner, more energy-efficient future.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s a challenge confronting California and the nation—as well as other nations—notably China, where the aging grid is already proving to be an obstacle to “greening” that nation’s energy production.\u003cbr>\nThe country plans to spend $530 billion dollars to revolutionize the way its electricity is distributed. But one of China’s main technical challenges, it turns out, is not all that different than what we face here in the U.S: how to integrate renewable energy, like wind and solar power, into a new electric grid.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>China’s Energy Challenge\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s Sunday afternoon in Shanghai at a store called Suning. It’s one of China’s biggest chains for appliances. It brims with the latest models of rice cookers, refrigerators and more.\u003cbr>\nTina Wong, a property manager, is shopping for an air conditioner to replace her old Toshiba. I ask her what kind of air conditioner she’s looking for. “Big one,” Wong says. “I have one too small like this -- not good enough.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That, in essence, is one of China’s biggest energy challenges today. There are millions more Chinese like Tina who are plugging in appliances typical of a Western lifestyle. This exploding consumerism -- plus the construction of new high-rises, like many in Shanghai, and new factories -- has intensified the nation’s thirst for electricity.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>China’s Massive New Infrastructure Project: A New Grid\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So to satisfy this soaring need, China’s main state-owned utility has launched a monumental infrastructure project to build a “strong, smart grid.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“And the ‘strong’ really refers to the high-voltage system,” says Matt Lecar. He’s a grid expert at GE in San Francisco and a consultant to the China Electric Power Research Institute. “They've actually put a lot of investment into creating kind of a national backbone infrastructure, which is something we don't have in the U.S.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s a backbone formed by building six ultra-high-voltage transmission lines crisscrossing the country. They will carry the highest alternating current in the world.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Chivas Lam, a partner at Qiming Venture Capital in Shanghai, says, “The majority of the resources -- the coal, the natural gas, the hydro -- is in the western or central part of China, while the load center is on the east coast, primarily.” That means electrons have to travel up to a thousand miles or more. “So obviously,” Lam says, “the better way is to generate the power locally rather than shipping or transporting coal and then using the electricity transmission network to transmit the power to the end user.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And by doing so, conserve natural resources, cut pollution, shrink the country’s carbon emissions and improve energy efficiency. The new smart grid will significantly boost the use of wind and solar power to generate electricity. It’s part of China’s plan to get 11 percent of its energy from non-fossil fuels by 2015 and cut down its dependence on coal, by far its main source of power -- and of its air pollution.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Problems Integrating Renewables\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But integrating China’s new wind power capacity into the grid has been problematic. Wind farm construction here has so outpaced the grid build-out that nearly a quarter of China’s turbines stand idle because they’re not yet connected to the grid.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>China’s utilities ran into another huge problem last year. Tom Pellman, a policy advisor for Vestas Wind Systems in Beijing describes, “a series of large grid accidents in which a power line failure caused hundreds of wind turbines to suddenly trip off the grid and stop producing energy.” The accidents led to a major shift in planning for the grid, focusing more effort on how to make the system smarter and more resilient.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Smart Part of the Grid\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The idea of a smart grid is through more sensors, more controls downstream, to have tighter control, to be able to deliver the right energy to the right places at the right time,” says GE’s Lecar.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Among these “sensors and controls” are “smart” meters, digital electric meters that have stirred opposition in parts of California where critics allege safety and privacy problems. While U.S. utilities are aiming to install 15 million smart meters by 2015, China claims to have already deployed more than three times that many. Foreign businesses are vying for a slice of the action. This year, Bay Area-based companies, including Echelon and Glen Canyon, have formed partnerships with Chinese firms to develop more products, including smart meters, for this giant market.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>China’s Race To Power\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In a Beijing subway car, an old man in threadbare clothing plays a traditional Chinese stringed instrument for money as he weaves through a crowd of other Chinese, texting on their smartphones and listening to iPods. It’s a snapshot of a complex challenge in China’s race to power; millions of poor Chinese and the expanding middle class here are all part of a populace hungry for a more modern lifestyle.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>China’s new “smarter, stronger” grid is scheduled to be up and running by 2020.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"California and China share the challenge of updating their power grids for the new age of clean energy. But China's task would appear to be--um--bigger.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1367348475,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":23,"wordCount":991},"headData":{"title":"China’s ‘Gridlock’ May Slow Conversion to Clean Energy | KQED","description":"California and China share the challenge of updating their power grids for the new age of clean energy. But China's task would appear to be--um--bigger.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"disqusIdentifier":"47196 http://science.kqed.org/quest/?p=47196","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/11/16/china%e2%80%99s-%e2%80%98gridlock%e2%80%99-may-slow-conversion-to-clean-energy/","disqusTitle":"China’s ‘Gridlock’ May Slow Conversion to Clean Energy","path":"/quest/47196/china%e2%80%99s-%e2%80%98gridlock%e2%80%99-may-slow-conversion-to-clean-energy","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Similar challenges could confront California\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_47201\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 337px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/11/16/china%e2%80%99s-%e2%80%98gridlock%e2%80%99-may-slow-conversion-to-clean-energy/china_grid_sm/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-47201\">\u003cimg class=\"size-medium wp-image-47201\" title=\"China_grid_sm\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/China_grid_sm-337x253.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"337\" height=\"253\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The source of China's electricity--largely coal-fired power plants--is also a major reason for its poor air quality. (Photo: Marjorie Sun)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>As recent events on the East Coast have graphically shown, the “grid” that provides our electricity can be a fragile thing. Building a modern, more resilient version will cost hundreds of billions of dollars—but most agree it’s essential to a cleaner, more energy-efficient future.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s a challenge confronting California and the nation—as well as other nations—notably China, where the aging grid is already proving to be an obstacle to “greening” that nation’s energy production.\u003cbr>\nThe country plans to spend $530 billion dollars to revolutionize the way its electricity is distributed. But one of China’s main technical challenges, it turns out, is not all that different than what we face here in the U.S: how to integrate renewable energy, like wind and solar power, into a new electric grid.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>China’s Energy Challenge\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s Sunday afternoon in Shanghai at a store called Suning. It’s one of China’s biggest chains for appliances. It brims with the latest models of rice cookers, refrigerators and more.\u003cbr>\nTina Wong, a property manager, is shopping for an air conditioner to replace her old Toshiba. I ask her what kind of air conditioner she’s looking for. “Big one,” Wong says. “I have one too small like this -- not good enough.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That, in essence, is one of China’s biggest energy challenges today. There are millions more Chinese like Tina who are plugging in appliances typical of a Western lifestyle. This exploding consumerism -- plus the construction of new high-rises, like many in Shanghai, and new factories -- has intensified the nation’s thirst for electricity.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>China’s Massive New Infrastructure Project: A New Grid\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So to satisfy this soaring need, China’s main state-owned utility has launched a monumental infrastructure project to build a “strong, smart grid.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“And the ‘strong’ really refers to the high-voltage system,” says Matt Lecar. He’s a grid expert at GE in San Francisco and a consultant to the China Electric Power Research Institute. “They've actually put a lot of investment into creating kind of a national backbone infrastructure, which is something we don't have in the U.S.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s a backbone formed by building six ultra-high-voltage transmission lines crisscrossing the country. They will carry the highest alternating current in the world.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Chivas Lam, a partner at Qiming Venture Capital in Shanghai, says, “The majority of the resources -- the coal, the natural gas, the hydro -- is in the western or central part of China, while the load center is on the east coast, primarily.” That means electrons have to travel up to a thousand miles or more. “So obviously,” Lam says, “the better way is to generate the power locally rather than shipping or transporting coal and then using the electricity transmission network to transmit the power to the end user.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And by doing so, conserve natural resources, cut pollution, shrink the country’s carbon emissions and improve energy efficiency. The new smart grid will significantly boost the use of wind and solar power to generate electricity. It’s part of China’s plan to get 11 percent of its energy from non-fossil fuels by 2015 and cut down its dependence on coal, by far its main source of power -- and of its air pollution.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Problems Integrating Renewables\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But integrating China’s new wind power capacity into the grid has been problematic. Wind farm construction here has so outpaced the grid build-out that nearly a quarter of China’s turbines stand idle because they’re not yet connected to the grid.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>China’s utilities ran into another huge problem last year. Tom Pellman, a policy advisor for Vestas Wind Systems in Beijing describes, “a series of large grid accidents in which a power line failure caused hundreds of wind turbines to suddenly trip off the grid and stop producing energy.” The accidents led to a major shift in planning for the grid, focusing more effort on how to make the system smarter and more resilient.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Smart Part of the Grid\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The idea of a smart grid is through more sensors, more controls downstream, to have tighter control, to be able to deliver the right energy to the right places at the right time,” says GE’s Lecar.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Among these “sensors and controls” are “smart” meters, digital electric meters that have stirred opposition in parts of California where critics allege safety and privacy problems. While U.S. utilities are aiming to install 15 million smart meters by 2015, China claims to have already deployed more than three times that many. Foreign businesses are vying for a slice of the action. This year, Bay Area-based companies, including Echelon and Glen Canyon, have formed partnerships with Chinese firms to develop more products, including smart meters, for this giant market.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>China’s Race To Power\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In a Beijing subway car, an old man in threadbare clothing plays a traditional Chinese stringed instrument for money as he weaves through a crowd of other Chinese, texting on their smartphones and listening to iPods. It’s a snapshot of a complex challenge in China’s race to power; millions of poor Chinese and the expanding middle class here are all part of a populace hungry for a more modern lifestyle.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>China’s new “smarter, stronger” grid is scheduled to be up and running by 2020.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/quest/47196/china%e2%80%99s-%e2%80%98gridlock%e2%80%99-may-slow-conversion-to-clean-energy","authors":["10391"],"series":["quest_11609"],"categories":["quest_6","quest_11765","quest_8"],"tags":["quest_582","quest_11518","quest_2271","quest_2409","quest_2665"],"featImg":"quest_47201","label":"quest_11609"},"quest_47215":{"type":"posts","id":"quest_47215","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"quest","id":"47215","score":null,"sort":[1353114660000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"solar-powers-chinas-march-toward-sustainability","title":"Solar Powers China's March Toward Sustainability","publishDate":1353114660,"format":"aside","headTitle":"Sustainable China | QUEST | KQED Science","labelTerm":{"term":11609,"site":"quest"},"content":"\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_47221\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 379px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/11/16/solar-powers-chinas-march-toward-sustainability/china_solar_sm/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-47221\">\u003cimg class=\"size-medium wp-image-47221\" title=\"China_Solar_sm\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/China_Solar_sm-379x253.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"379\" height=\"253\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Most of China's solar panels are made for export markets. That balance could be shifting. (Photo: Marjorie Sun)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Aggressive price competition helps consumers, stymies California industry\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There’s a trade war brewing with China over solar panels and California is right in the middle. Just this month, federal trade officials authorized sanctions against China for “dumping” solar components onto the U-S market below cost. China is the world’s biggest producer of solar panels, and yet very few are installed there domestically. Many end up on rooftops here in California. “Cheap solar” has been good for California consumers but bad for the state’s own makers of solar energy hardware.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>China Jumpstarts Domestic Solar Capacity\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>About 80 miles west of Shanghai, intern Cheng Yiyang shows me a production line where machines pirouette and fabricate black wafers packed with photovoltaic cells. We’re in the headquarters of the world’s largest maker of solar panels, Suntech Power, in the city of Wuxi.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“They print the material onto the pieces and when they come out they can send the electricity,” Cheng explains. “You see this?”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Suntech has similar operations at a new plant in Arizona. Until last year, Suntech and other Chinese solar companies shipped virtually all their products overseas. The influx of cheap solar panels has been blamed for troubles in the U.S. industry. In fact, Suntech is one of three Chinese panel makers being sued by the failed Fremont company, Solyndra, for unfair competition. But now China’s central government has launched a major initiative to jumpstart its own use of solar energy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Last year, the central government began subsidizing solar power projects. This year alone, China will have installed about 5 gigawatts of capacity, producing enough electricity to supply two million Chinese. That’s about a third more capacity than the U.S. is set to install this year. Although China’s build-out barely puts a dent in its carbon footprint -- the biggest in the world -- Chinese solar companies and environmentalists are encouraged.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It took China a while to bring its solar program up to speed,” says Andrew Beebe, a Suntech executive based in San Francisco. “And now that it's really up to speed, it’s cranking.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>The Magic of the Feed-in Tariff\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That would be thanks to a subsidy known as a feed-in tariff. It’s a subsidy for renewable energy that guarantees developers of these projects a reasonable return on their investments. The government pays developers a certain price per kilowatt-hour to entice them to install solar.\u003cbr>\nChina’s feed-in tariff is actually mimicking similar programs in Europe and the U.S. to promote wind and solar power. Alvin Lin is with the Beijing office of the American environmental group, NRDC. He says, “The feed-in tariffs are really pretty amazing policy tool for incentivizing renewable projects. “\u003cbr>\nThe Chinese program, like the European model, promotes large, utility-scale solar projects. Rooftop installations are still relatively rare in China.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>The Timing\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So why the subsidy now? There are a host of reasons. As one of China’s numerous new bullet trains blows into a station, I’m reminded of a big one. This one whisked me from Beijing to Shanghai -- like going the full length of the California coast -- in just 5 hours. China needs electricity to power its transportation needs. The nation also needs electricity for new factories and appliances bought by its growing middle class.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>China still gets about 70 percent of its power from coal, virtually all of it mined domestically until recently. The growing demand for electricity has outpaced even this country’s coal production.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When China became net importer coal, “That surprised everybody,” says Yang Fuqiang, an energy expert in NRDC’s Beijing office. Yang says to offset this dependence on coal, both domestic and foreign, China wants to diversify its energy mix. “So the Chinese government says we have to save our resources.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And save its environment from the effects of burning all this coal, including prodigious carbon emissions. China is now the world’s biggest contributor to global warming.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>China’s Ambitious Plans for Renewables\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So the central government has set an ambitious goal: to produce more than 11 percent of China’s energy from non-fossil fuels by the end of the decade. That’s slightly less than what renewables now account for in U.S. electricity production.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the meantime, “You know, pain for companies is inevitable in a market that is about 60 percent oversupplied this year,” says Nathaniel Bullard, an analyst at Bloomberg New Energy Finance in San Francisco. Suntech’s share price, for instance, has plummeted from a high of about $90 four years ago, to less than a buck now. Bullard will be watching whether the China Development Bank bails out some solar companies. If so, he says, “It would start to look like the kind of issue that could inflame this trade case even further.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>However that shakes out, China’s solar sector will still provide strong competition for firms in California and across the U.S. Beijing has already declared that by 2015, it will quadruple this year’s solar installation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But watching Chinese throng a gigantic, glittering shopping center in downtown Shanghai, one sees a microcosm of an enormous challenge: thirteen floors filled with the latest fashions and trendy restaurants. No matter how ambitious China’s solar program, it’s up against hundreds of millions of people striving for a more “Western” lifestyle, and that will create the need for ever-more megawatts to power the trappings of middle-class living. The race for power is on.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"China has vaulted out front in the solar power game. That's been good for consumers but perplexing to its California competitors.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1367349378,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":22,"wordCount":994},"headData":{"title":"Solar Powers China's March Toward Sustainability | KQED","description":"China has vaulted out front in the solar power game. That's been good for consumers but perplexing to its California competitors.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"disqusIdentifier":"47215 http://science.kqed.org/quest/?p=47215","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/11/16/solar-powers-chinas-march-toward-sustainability/","disqusTitle":"Solar Powers China's March Toward Sustainability","path":"/quest/47215/solar-powers-chinas-march-toward-sustainability","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_47221\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 379px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/11/16/solar-powers-chinas-march-toward-sustainability/china_solar_sm/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-47221\">\u003cimg class=\"size-medium wp-image-47221\" title=\"China_Solar_sm\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/China_Solar_sm-379x253.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"379\" height=\"253\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Most of China's solar panels are made for export markets. That balance could be shifting. (Photo: Marjorie Sun)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Aggressive price competition helps consumers, stymies California industry\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There’s a trade war brewing with China over solar panels and California is right in the middle. Just this month, federal trade officials authorized sanctions against China for “dumping” solar components onto the U-S market below cost. China is the world’s biggest producer of solar panels, and yet very few are installed there domestically. Many end up on rooftops here in California. “Cheap solar” has been good for California consumers but bad for the state’s own makers of solar energy hardware.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>China Jumpstarts Domestic Solar Capacity\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>About 80 miles west of Shanghai, intern Cheng Yiyang shows me a production line where machines pirouette and fabricate black wafers packed with photovoltaic cells. We’re in the headquarters of the world’s largest maker of solar panels, Suntech Power, in the city of Wuxi.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“They print the material onto the pieces and when they come out they can send the electricity,” Cheng explains. “You see this?”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Suntech has similar operations at a new plant in Arizona. Until last year, Suntech and other Chinese solar companies shipped virtually all their products overseas. The influx of cheap solar panels has been blamed for troubles in the U.S. industry. In fact, Suntech is one of three Chinese panel makers being sued by the failed Fremont company, Solyndra, for unfair competition. But now China’s central government has launched a major initiative to jumpstart its own use of solar energy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Last year, the central government began subsidizing solar power projects. This year alone, China will have installed about 5 gigawatts of capacity, producing enough electricity to supply two million Chinese. That’s about a third more capacity than the U.S. is set to install this year. Although China’s build-out barely puts a dent in its carbon footprint -- the biggest in the world -- Chinese solar companies and environmentalists are encouraged.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It took China a while to bring its solar program up to speed,” says Andrew Beebe, a Suntech executive based in San Francisco. “And now that it's really up to speed, it’s cranking.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>The Magic of the Feed-in Tariff\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That would be thanks to a subsidy known as a feed-in tariff. It’s a subsidy for renewable energy that guarantees developers of these projects a reasonable return on their investments. The government pays developers a certain price per kilowatt-hour to entice them to install solar.\u003cbr>\nChina’s feed-in tariff is actually mimicking similar programs in Europe and the U.S. to promote wind and solar power. Alvin Lin is with the Beijing office of the American environmental group, NRDC. He says, “The feed-in tariffs are really pretty amazing policy tool for incentivizing renewable projects. “\u003cbr>\nThe Chinese program, like the European model, promotes large, utility-scale solar projects. Rooftop installations are still relatively rare in China.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>The Timing\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So why the subsidy now? There are a host of reasons. As one of China’s numerous new bullet trains blows into a station, I’m reminded of a big one. This one whisked me from Beijing to Shanghai -- like going the full length of the California coast -- in just 5 hours. China needs electricity to power its transportation needs. The nation also needs electricity for new factories and appliances bought by its growing middle class.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>China still gets about 70 percent of its power from coal, virtually all of it mined domestically until recently. The growing demand for electricity has outpaced even this country’s coal production.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When China became net importer coal, “That surprised everybody,” says Yang Fuqiang, an energy expert in NRDC’s Beijing office. Yang says to offset this dependence on coal, both domestic and foreign, China wants to diversify its energy mix. “So the Chinese government says we have to save our resources.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And save its environment from the effects of burning all this coal, including prodigious carbon emissions. China is now the world’s biggest contributor to global warming.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>China’s Ambitious Plans for Renewables\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So the central government has set an ambitious goal: to produce more than 11 percent of China’s energy from non-fossil fuels by the end of the decade. That’s slightly less than what renewables now account for in U.S. electricity production.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the meantime, “You know, pain for companies is inevitable in a market that is about 60 percent oversupplied this year,” says Nathaniel Bullard, an analyst at Bloomberg New Energy Finance in San Francisco. Suntech’s share price, for instance, has plummeted from a high of about $90 four years ago, to less than a buck now. Bullard will be watching whether the China Development Bank bails out some solar companies. If so, he says, “It would start to look like the kind of issue that could inflame this trade case even further.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>However that shakes out, China’s solar sector will still provide strong competition for firms in California and across the U.S. Beijing has already declared that by 2015, it will quadruple this year’s solar installation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But watching Chinese throng a gigantic, glittering shopping center in downtown Shanghai, one sees a microcosm of an enormous challenge: thirteen floors filled with the latest fashions and trendy restaurants. No matter how ambitious China’s solar program, it’s up against hundreds of millions of people striving for a more “Western” lifestyle, and that will create the need for ever-more megawatts to power the trappings of middle-class living. The race for power is on.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/quest/47215/solar-powers-chinas-march-toward-sustainability","authors":["10391"],"series":["quest_11609"],"categories":["quest_6","quest_11765","quest_9"],"tags":["quest_582","quest_11518","quest_2409","quest_2700","quest_11610"],"featImg":"quest_47221","label":"quest_11609"},"quest_46778":{"type":"posts","id":"quest_46778","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"quest","id":"46778","score":null,"sort":[1352140910000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"q-a-how-will-the-solar-industry-shake-out","title":"Q & A - How Will the Solar Industry Shake Out?","publishDate":1352140910,"format":"aside","headTitle":"QUEST | KQED Science","labelTerm":{"site":"quest"},"content":"\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_46781\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/panel.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-46781\" title=\"panel\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/panel-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Solar panel at SunPower in San Jose, CA.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>It's been a bumpy year for the solar industry despite record growth, something we explore in \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/audio/looming-trade-war-shakes-up-u-s-solar-industry/\">this week's radio story\u003c/a>. I spoke with Shayle Kann, Vice President for Research at \u003ca href=\"http://www.greentechmedia.com/research\">GTM Research\u003c/a> about the recent turmoil.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>What’s this past year been like in the solar industry?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Globally, it's a tough year in solar. We have massive oversupply of solar panels, so it's been a really hard time for solar manufacturers. And demand on a global level is growing, but relatively slowly this year as compared to the past couple of years, where we've seen really massive growth. The big reason for that is that Europe has slowed down as incentives have been pulled back from European governments.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The US, on the other hand, as far as the solar market goes, is pretty strong this year. We're looking at what we expect to be about 71 percent growth in solar installations in 2012 over 2011. So that's a strong growth rate, but it is slower than we've seen. In 2010 and 2011, the market more than doubled. So it's slowing down a bit, but solar is still growing fast throughout the US.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>And China has emerged as a big player...\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Chinese manufacturers of solar panels have been gaining more and more market share. It's not to say that Chinese manufacturers are the only ones. In fact, the largest market share in the US is held by SunPower, which is a US-based manufacturer. But Chinese players have a really big role to play here. And that, in conjunction with a few other things, has resulted in what has become something of a mini \"trade war\" in the solar industry, headquartered in the US but occurring in other places as well.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>This spring we saw the U.S. Commerce Department levy trade tariffs on Chinese solar panels. Are people paying more because of them?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It's been sort of a strange situation because the way that the tariffs worked out in the US, they apply to photovoltaic cell manufacturing. The reason that matters is that the solar panels are basically manufactured in four steps. The cell manufacturing is really the third of four steps. The fourth step is assembling those cells into panels, or modules.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The way that the tariff ruling worked out in the US is: the only thing that really matters is where the cells themselves are manufactured. And the result of that has been that a lot of Chinese manufacturers have essentially started tolling, or having somebody else manufacture their cells for them offshore, most popular being Taiwan, then shipping them back into China, assembling them into modules and sending them to the US, not being subject to the tariff.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So, that does create a cost impact. We estimate it to be something like six or seven cents per watt, which is a little less than 10 percent of the cost of a module, which means there has been a very slight incremental cost impact to anybody who's buying solar panels in the US, but it hasn't been very big. On the scale of a system (we're talking about a panel that costs maybe 80 cents, and a system that costs three or four dollars per watt), a five-or-six cent cost impact isn't huge. So it's had a slight impact, but it hasn't derailed the US market in any major way.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Have the tariffs caused any US installers to stop buying Chinese panels?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I think a lot of them at least opened their eyes to some non-Chinese manufacturers that they wouldn't have before. It did provide an opportunity for them to step in and gain some share where they didn't before, but it did certainly not result in installers in the US stopping using Chinese panels.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>How dramatically have solar panel prices dropped in the past few years?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It's been huge. If you look back at even late 2008, panel prices were up close to $4 a watt. Today, they're down in the 70 cent per watt range. So that is an enormous decrease over the course of just four years. And they're continuing to fall.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But there is an important point to make, which is: given how far panel prices have fallen, it becomes less and less important to look for cost reductions from the panel itself. The cost of the solar project isn't just the panel. There's other hardware that gets installed, there's labor, system design, engineering, and financing, and all these other costs, that increasingly are becoming the place where the bottleneck lies in getting costs down.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Are we going to see a big shake-out in the industry?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We're in the midst of a big global solar panel manufacturer shake-out. It's not just true in the US. This year, we have something on the order of about 30 gigawatts of solar demand globally, compared to about 60 gigawatts of solar manufacturing capacity. So there is a huge oversupply, resulting in lowered margins, strained balance sheets for every single solar manufacturer everywhere. We're starting to see this consolidation and shake-out take place. That will be occurring for at least a year and a half before it really settles.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>What’s the future like for US solar manufacturers?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It's a tough time to be a solar manufacturer anyway, no matter where you're from. It's particularly difficult to be manufacturing in the US, where your cost structure is going to be higher than it would be if you were in a low-cost location like China, Malaysia, Taiwan, Philippines.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That said, we think the way you can weather the storm is by differentiating in terms of how you're selling into the market. Providing additional services to your customers, doing things like getting into project development yourself. But to be sure, if you cannot weather a very, very difficult storm in which you're not going to be making money for the next 18 months, then you better be looking for a drastic change in your strategy pretty quickly.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We still have a global oversupply. So maybe it (the tariff) provides a bit of an incremental benefit to US solar manufacturers, but it really hasn't fixed the issues that they're facing on a global scale.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Talking about the solar manufacturers these days is kind of depressing, but talking about the solar market in the US is a pretty positive story. Solar deployment remains a positive story, even if solar manufacturing is tough.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>Produced with Nicholas Christen.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Plummeting prices, trade war, record growth – it’s been a busy year for the solar industry. Reporter Lauren Sommer talks to a solar analyst about how California is doing in the rapidly changing global market.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1367353170,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":25,"wordCount":1130},"headData":{"title":"Q & A - How Will the Solar Industry Shake Out? | KQED","description":"Plummeting prices, trade war, record growth – it’s been a busy year for the solar industry. Reporter Lauren Sommer talks to a solar analyst about how California is doing in the rapidly changing global market.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"disqusIdentifier":"46778 http://science.kqed.org/quest/?p=46778","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/11/05/q-a-how-will-the-solar-industry-shake-out/","disqusTitle":"Q & A - How Will the Solar Industry Shake Out?","path":"/quest/46778/q-a-how-will-the-solar-industry-shake-out","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_46781\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/panel.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-46781\" title=\"panel\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/panel-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Solar panel at SunPower in San Jose, CA.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>It's been a bumpy year for the solar industry despite record growth, something we explore in \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/audio/looming-trade-war-shakes-up-u-s-solar-industry/\">this week's radio story\u003c/a>. I spoke with Shayle Kann, Vice President for Research at \u003ca href=\"http://www.greentechmedia.com/research\">GTM Research\u003c/a> about the recent turmoil.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>What’s this past year been like in the solar industry?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Globally, it's a tough year in solar. We have massive oversupply of solar panels, so it's been a really hard time for solar manufacturers. And demand on a global level is growing, but relatively slowly this year as compared to the past couple of years, where we've seen really massive growth. The big reason for that is that Europe has slowed down as incentives have been pulled back from European governments.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The US, on the other hand, as far as the solar market goes, is pretty strong this year. We're looking at what we expect to be about 71 percent growth in solar installations in 2012 over 2011. So that's a strong growth rate, but it is slower than we've seen. In 2010 and 2011, the market more than doubled. So it's slowing down a bit, but solar is still growing fast throughout the US.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>And China has emerged as a big player...\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Chinese manufacturers of solar panels have been gaining more and more market share. It's not to say that Chinese manufacturers are the only ones. In fact, the largest market share in the US is held by SunPower, which is a US-based manufacturer. But Chinese players have a really big role to play here. And that, in conjunction with a few other things, has resulted in what has become something of a mini \"trade war\" in the solar industry, headquartered in the US but occurring in other places as well.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>This spring we saw the U.S. Commerce Department levy trade tariffs on Chinese solar panels. Are people paying more because of them?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It's been sort of a strange situation because the way that the tariffs worked out in the US, they apply to photovoltaic cell manufacturing. The reason that matters is that the solar panels are basically manufactured in four steps. The cell manufacturing is really the third of four steps. The fourth step is assembling those cells into panels, or modules.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The way that the tariff ruling worked out in the US is: the only thing that really matters is where the cells themselves are manufactured. And the result of that has been that a lot of Chinese manufacturers have essentially started tolling, or having somebody else manufacture their cells for them offshore, most popular being Taiwan, then shipping them back into China, assembling them into modules and sending them to the US, not being subject to the tariff.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So, that does create a cost impact. We estimate it to be something like six or seven cents per watt, which is a little less than 10 percent of the cost of a module, which means there has been a very slight incremental cost impact to anybody who's buying solar panels in the US, but it hasn't been very big. On the scale of a system (we're talking about a panel that costs maybe 80 cents, and a system that costs three or four dollars per watt), a five-or-six cent cost impact isn't huge. So it's had a slight impact, but it hasn't derailed the US market in any major way.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Have the tariffs caused any US installers to stop buying Chinese panels?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I think a lot of them at least opened their eyes to some non-Chinese manufacturers that they wouldn't have before. It did provide an opportunity for them to step in and gain some share where they didn't before, but it did certainly not result in installers in the US stopping using Chinese panels.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>How dramatically have solar panel prices dropped in the past few years?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It's been huge. If you look back at even late 2008, panel prices were up close to $4 a watt. Today, they're down in the 70 cent per watt range. So that is an enormous decrease over the course of just four years. And they're continuing to fall.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But there is an important point to make, which is: given how far panel prices have fallen, it becomes less and less important to look for cost reductions from the panel itself. The cost of the solar project isn't just the panel. There's other hardware that gets installed, there's labor, system design, engineering, and financing, and all these other costs, that increasingly are becoming the place where the bottleneck lies in getting costs down.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Are we going to see a big shake-out in the industry?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We're in the midst of a big global solar panel manufacturer shake-out. It's not just true in the US. This year, we have something on the order of about 30 gigawatts of solar demand globally, compared to about 60 gigawatts of solar manufacturing capacity. So there is a huge oversupply, resulting in lowered margins, strained balance sheets for every single solar manufacturer everywhere. We're starting to see this consolidation and shake-out take place. That will be occurring for at least a year and a half before it really settles.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>What’s the future like for US solar manufacturers?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It's a tough time to be a solar manufacturer anyway, no matter where you're from. It's particularly difficult to be manufacturing in the US, where your cost structure is going to be higher than it would be if you were in a low-cost location like China, Malaysia, Taiwan, Philippines.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That said, we think the way you can weather the storm is by differentiating in terms of how you're selling into the market. Providing additional services to your customers, doing things like getting into project development yourself. But to be sure, if you cannot weather a very, very difficult storm in which you're not going to be making money for the next 18 months, then you better be looking for a drastic change in your strategy pretty quickly.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We still have a global oversupply. So maybe it (the tariff) provides a bit of an incremental benefit to US solar manufacturers, but it really hasn't fixed the issues that they're facing on a global scale.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Talking about the solar manufacturers these days is kind of depressing, but talking about the solar market in the US is a pretty positive story. Solar deployment remains a positive story, even if solar manufacturing is tough.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"floatright"},"numeric":["floatright"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>Produced with Nicholas Christen.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/quest/46778/q-a-how-will-the-solar-industry-shake-out","authors":["239"],"categories":["quest_11765","quest_8","quest_9"],"tags":["quest_582","quest_11590","quest_2409","quest_2693","quest_2708","quest_11589","quest_11587"],"featImg":"quest_46781","label":"quest"},"quest_46763":{"type":"posts","id":"quest_46763","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"quest","id":"46763","score":null,"sort":[1351888273000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"looming-trade-war-shakes-up-u-s-solar-industry","title":"Looming Trade War Shakes Up U.S. Solar Industry","publishDate":1351888273,"format":"audio","headTitle":"QUEST | KQED Science","labelTerm":{"site":"quest"},"content":"\u003cp>http://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/quest/2012/11/20121105quest.mp3\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_46765\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/DSC00476.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-46765\" title=\"DSC00476\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/DSC00476-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A worker handles solar panels at SunPower's manufacturing plant near San Jose.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Talk to anyone in the solar industry and they’ll tell you: it’s the best of times, it’s the worst of times. Solar installations are booming, but there’s also a looming trade war with China. Citing illegal subsidies, U.S. officials have placed trade tariffs on Chinese solar panels. American solar companies are split on whether it will be good or bad for the industry.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>A Solar Manufacturer\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At SunPower’s solar manufacturing plant near San Jose, workers screw frames onto shiny, six-foot solar panels as they come off the line. “We are running 24 hours a day,” says quality engineer Eric Kao.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This plant has had a long list of notable visitors: Governors Jerry Brown and Arnold Schwarzenegger, Energy Secretary Steven Chu. That’s because SunPower is one of the top suppliers in the country -- and because there aren’t many solar plants left to visit. It’s getting lonely to be an American solar manufacturer.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s going to require being lonely to be one of the winners but it’s unfortunate that there aren’t many American solar companies,” says Tom Werner, CEO of SunPower. He says five years ago, things were looking good for U.S. solar manufacturers. There were growing markets in Germany, Japan and California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Many of the industry participants were making good profits. Well, that attracts competition,” he says. Chinese manufacturers flooded the market with solar panels. Within four years, panel prices fell seventy five percent.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The economics have gotten way, way more challenging. It's difficult for some companies to make it,” Werner says. SunPower has survived, but is just hoping to break even this year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Last year, several American solar panel companies filed a trade complaint against China, saying Chinese solar companies are getting illegal subsidies and are dumping panels on the US market. In May, the U.S. Commerce Department agreed and levied trade tariffs of 25 to 35 percent.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Werner says while SunPower didn’t directly join the complaint, it does stand to gain. “Let’s just say it won’t hurt our pricing but I don’t know if it will be a big advantage. Having a trade war is definitely not good for the industry so we need to sort this out.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The solar industry doesn’t need more bad news, says Werner, especially after the political scandal over one particular bankrupt solar company. “It’s amazing how many people know the name of that company.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Solyndra, that is. It’s a name Werner avoids saying, much like like Lord Voldemort in Harry Potter. “Well see, if I name the company then I’m just propagating the whole deal,” Werner says. Tariffs or no tariffs, Werner says some US manufacturers may not make it either. It’s an entirely different story with solar installers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Flip Side: A Solar Installer\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At Sungevity’s Oakland headquarters, a team of sales people grabs maracas off their desks. “So the maraca shake happens when there’s a sale,” says Danny Kennedy, president of Sungevity.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sungevity is one part power company, one part internet startup. It designs residential solar systems virtually by using satellite photos of each house. Like online shopping, Sungevity makes a sale before a truck ever goes out. And sales have been good.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We grew gangbusters in 2010. Doubled again in ‘11. Have continued to grow this year,” says Kennedy. That’s thanks to a new option for customers to lease a solar system, instead of buying it upfront. It’s also more affordable because panels are cheaper.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This is something I think we should celebrate – the fact that we’re driving cost out of clean energy,” he says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sungevity buys panels from the US, Korea and from China. Even with the trade tariffs, prices are about the same because Chinese solar companies have found a loophole. The tariffs are only on solar cells, not the entire solar panel. So, the cells are manufactured offshore and put into panels in China.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But Kennedy says focusing on these manufacturing jobs is a mistake. The real green jobs are elsewhere. “There’s more job density in the sales, finance, installation and maintenance end of the value chain than there is in the factory. It’s probably a ratio of three to one.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>California leads the nation in solar jobs. Kennedy is concerned that a trade war with China would put them at risk.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s crazy talk. We’re growing faster than any industry over a hundred billion dollars in value in the global economy. And yet, there is this nabobs of negativity around us that are causing concerns in the investment community,” says Kennedy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Solar’s Teenage Years\u003cbr>\n\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nAll of this adds up to some major growing pains for the industry. “It is totally a teenager in a lot of ways,” says Dan Kammen, a professor at UC Berkeley.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The industry is growing dramatically. There’s also incredible turmoil. And there are some teenagers who are clearly going to be young prodigies and others who are going to go into rehab,” says Kammen.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When companies fight over market share and race to the lowest price, Kammen says it’s the startups with cutting-edge technology that just can’t compete.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“A battle between the two biggest players, the US and China, is one where we might actually have casualties that aren’t just business casualties, they’re actually, pieces of innovation getting lost.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The trade tariffs won’t be final until the US International Trade Commission rules on whether China has been illegally subsidizing their solar industry. That decision is expected on Wednesday.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Federal officials have put trade tariffs on Chinese solar panels. American solar companies are split on whether it will be good or bad for the industry.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1367353159,"stats":{"hasAudio":true,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":27,"wordCount":1032},"headData":{"title":"Looming Trade War Shakes Up U.S. Solar Industry | KQED","description":"Federal officials have put trade tariffs on Chinese solar panels. American solar companies are split on whether it will be good or bad for the industry.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"disqusIdentifier":"46763 http://science.kqed.org/quest/?post_type=audio_reports&p=46763","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/11/02/looming-trade-war-shakes-up-u-s-solar-industry/","disqusTitle":"Looming Trade War Shakes Up U.S. Solar Industry","WpOldSlug":"west-coast-a-test-bed-for-ocean-acidification-2","path":"/quest/46763/looming-trade-war-shakes-up-u-s-solar-industry","audioUrl":"http://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/quest/2012/11/20121105quest.mp3","audioDuration":null,"audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"audioLink","attributes":{"named":{"src":"http://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/quest/2012/11/20121105quest.mp3"},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_46765\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/DSC00476.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-46765\" title=\"DSC00476\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/DSC00476-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A worker handles solar panels at SunPower's manufacturing plant near San Jose.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Talk to anyone in the solar industry and they’ll tell you: it’s the best of times, it’s the worst of times. Solar installations are booming, but there’s also a looming trade war with China. Citing illegal subsidies, U.S. officials have placed trade tariffs on Chinese solar panels. American solar companies are split on whether it will be good or bad for the industry.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>A Solar Manufacturer\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At SunPower’s solar manufacturing plant near San Jose, workers screw frames onto shiny, six-foot solar panels as they come off the line. “We are running 24 hours a day,” says quality engineer Eric Kao.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This plant has had a long list of notable visitors: Governors Jerry Brown and Arnold Schwarzenegger, Energy Secretary Steven Chu. That’s because SunPower is one of the top suppliers in the country -- and because there aren’t many solar plants left to visit. It’s getting lonely to be an American solar manufacturer.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s going to require being lonely to be one of the winners but it’s unfortunate that there aren’t many American solar companies,” says Tom Werner, CEO of SunPower. He says five years ago, things were looking good for U.S. solar manufacturers. There were growing markets in Germany, Japan and California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Many of the industry participants were making good profits. Well, that attracts competition,” he says. Chinese manufacturers flooded the market with solar panels. Within four years, panel prices fell seventy five percent.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The economics have gotten way, way more challenging. It's difficult for some companies to make it,” Werner says. SunPower has survived, but is just hoping to break even this year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Last year, several American solar panel companies filed a trade complaint against China, saying Chinese solar companies are getting illegal subsidies and are dumping panels on the US market. In May, the U.S. Commerce Department agreed and levied trade tariffs of 25 to 35 percent.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Werner says while SunPower didn’t directly join the complaint, it does stand to gain. “Let’s just say it won’t hurt our pricing but I don’t know if it will be a big advantage. Having a trade war is definitely not good for the industry so we need to sort this out.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The solar industry doesn’t need more bad news, says Werner, especially after the political scandal over one particular bankrupt solar company. “It’s amazing how many people know the name of that company.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Solyndra, that is. It’s a name Werner avoids saying, much like like Lord Voldemort in Harry Potter. “Well see, if I name the company then I’m just propagating the whole deal,” Werner says. Tariffs or no tariffs, Werner says some US manufacturers may not make it either. It’s an entirely different story with solar installers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Flip Side: A Solar Installer\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At Sungevity’s Oakland headquarters, a team of sales people grabs maracas off their desks. “So the maraca shake happens when there’s a sale,” says Danny Kennedy, president of Sungevity.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sungevity is one part power company, one part internet startup. It designs residential solar systems virtually by using satellite photos of each house. Like online shopping, Sungevity makes a sale before a truck ever goes out. And sales have been good.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We grew gangbusters in 2010. Doubled again in ‘11. Have continued to grow this year,” says Kennedy. That’s thanks to a new option for customers to lease a solar system, instead of buying it upfront. It’s also more affordable because panels are cheaper.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This is something I think we should celebrate – the fact that we’re driving cost out of clean energy,” he says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sungevity buys panels from the US, Korea and from China. Even with the trade tariffs, prices are about the same because Chinese solar companies have found a loophole. The tariffs are only on solar cells, not the entire solar panel. So, the cells are manufactured offshore and put into panels in China.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But Kennedy says focusing on these manufacturing jobs is a mistake. The real green jobs are elsewhere. “There’s more job density in the sales, finance, installation and maintenance end of the value chain than there is in the factory. It’s probably a ratio of three to one.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>California leads the nation in solar jobs. Kennedy is concerned that a trade war with China would put them at risk.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s crazy talk. We’re growing faster than any industry over a hundred billion dollars in value in the global economy. And yet, there is this nabobs of negativity around us that are causing concerns in the investment community,” says Kennedy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Solar’s Teenage Years\u003cbr>\n\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nAll of this adds up to some major growing pains for the industry. “It is totally a teenager in a lot of ways,” says Dan Kammen, a professor at UC Berkeley.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The industry is growing dramatically. There’s also incredible turmoil. And there are some teenagers who are clearly going to be young prodigies and others who are going to go into rehab,” says Kammen.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When companies fight over market share and race to the lowest price, Kammen says it’s the startups with cutting-edge technology that just can’t compete.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“A battle between the two biggest players, the US and China, is one where we might actually have casualties that aren’t just business casualties, they’re actually, pieces of innovation getting lost.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The trade tariffs won’t be final until the US International Trade Commission rules on whether China has been illegally subsidizing their solar industry. That decision is expected on Wednesday.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/quest/46763/looming-trade-war-shakes-up-u-s-solar-industry","authors":["239"],"categories":["quest_11765","quest_8","quest_9"],"tags":["quest_252","quest_438","quest_582","quest_11518","quest_11588","quest_13203","quest_2270","quest_2409","quest_2693","quest_2708","quest_11586","quest_11587"],"featImg":"quest_46765","label":"quest"},"quest_7375":{"type":"posts","id":"quest_7375","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"quest","id":"7375","score":null,"sort":[1282323624000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"tuesday-plenary-is-the-climate-right-for-efficiency-in-china","title":"Is the Climate Right for Efficiency in China?","publishDate":1282323624,"format":"standard","headTitle":"QUEST | KQED Science","labelTerm":{"site":"quest"},"content":"\u003cp>\u003cspan class=\"left\">\u003ca href=\"http://www.kqed.org/quest\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2010/08/china.jpg\" alt=\"\">\u003c/a>\u003cem>Summer Study participants were treated to two insiders’ take on energy efficiency in China.\u003c/em>\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Notes from \u003ca href=\"http://energyexperts.org/TrainingEducationandEmployment/EventDetails.aspx?ID=11862\">Asilomar: The 15th Biannual Summer Study, Energy Use In Buildings, of the American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy\u003c/a> (August 15–20, 2010).\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Summer Study participants were treated to two insiders’ take on energy efficiency in China.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Mark Levine was recently the director of the \u003ca href=\"http://eetd.lbl.gov/\">Environmental Energy Technologies Division\u003c/a> at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and is now working full time with the China Energy Group at LBNL, a group Levine founded in 1988.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>William Chandler is an expert in energy and climate at the \u003ca href=\"http://carnegieendowment.org/\">Carnegie Endowment for International Peace\u003c/a>, as well as the president of Transition Energy and the co-founder of DEED China—private companies with energy efficiency investments in China. Chandler was a 1992 ACEEE Champion of Energy Efficiency.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c!--more-->\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Both Levine and Chandler provided lots of information about energy efficiency policy and reality in China—past, present, and future. But more important, they each shared a wealth of insight that only comes with a long history of lived experience interacting with people developing energy efficiency in China. Imagine the amount of time they’ve spent in airplanes during the past 25 years!\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One insight from Tuesday night’s plenary is the extraordinary progress China has made since 1980 to curb greenhouse-gas emissions, and lower energy intensity in an economy that has grown by leaps and bounds. Between 1980 and 2002, China’s GDP increased by a factor of 8, while its energy use increased by a factor of only 3. Between 1980 and 2002 energy intensity, or energy per unit of GDP decreased about 5% per year. From 2002 to 2005, energy intensity increased about 5% per year, mainly due to a huge increase in the production of steel and cement. But energy intensity then began to decrease again, dropping 16% between 2005 and 2009.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Looking to the future, Levine outlined a likely scenario where China’s total energy use and greenhouse gas emissions will continue to grow, but then level off in 20 years or so, and then begin a slow steady decrease. But at its peak Chinese energy use per capita will stay well below that of the United States and below that of Europe. China’s emissions will not overwhelm us, according to Levine, because of several reasons, but mainly due to saturation in the appliance and transportation markets in China.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Chandler urged cooperation with China in regards to energy efficiency policy, and warned that a lack of cooperation, “I won’t do anything if you don’t”, will be a suicide pact. We need to better explain to the west China’s successes and commitment to reduce energy use and carbon emissions, encourage China to be more accurate and transparent with its energy and emissions data, remove barriers to business between the United States and China, and resolve diplomatically the rift in relations between China and other nations that are part of the Copenhagen climate agreements.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Can China do its part to mitigate climate change and obtain energy security for itself and other nations? Levine and Chandler both say, “Yes.” But only if the United States and other developed and developing nations do their part as well.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>37.7749295 -122.4194155\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Notes from Asilomar: The 15th Biannual Summer Study, Energy Use In Buildings, of the American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (August 15–20, 2010).","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1367349474,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":14,"wordCount":564},"headData":{"title":"Is the Climate Right for Efficiency in China? | KQED","description":"Notes from Asilomar: The 15th Biannual Summer Study, Energy Use In Buildings, of the American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (August 15–20, 2010).","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"disqusIdentifier":"7375 http://www.kqed.org/quest/blog/2010/08/20/tuesday-plenary-is-the-climate-right-for-efficiency-in-china/","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2010/08/20/tuesday-plenary-is-the-climate-right-for-efficiency-in-china/","disqusTitle":"Is the Climate Right for Efficiency in China?","WpOldSlug":"when-the-sun-don%e2%80%99t-shine-and-the-wind-don%e2%80%99t-blow","path":"/quest/7375/tuesday-plenary-is-the-climate-right-for-efficiency-in-china","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003cspan class=\"left\">\u003ca href=\"http://www.kqed.org/quest\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2010/08/china.jpg\" alt=\"\">\u003c/a>\u003cem>Summer Study participants were treated to two insiders’ take on energy efficiency in China.\u003c/em>\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Notes from \u003ca href=\"http://energyexperts.org/TrainingEducationandEmployment/EventDetails.aspx?ID=11862\">Asilomar: The 15th Biannual Summer Study, Energy Use In Buildings, of the American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy\u003c/a> (August 15–20, 2010).\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Summer Study participants were treated to two insiders’ take on energy efficiency in China.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Mark Levine was recently the director of the \u003ca href=\"http://eetd.lbl.gov/\">Environmental Energy Technologies Division\u003c/a> at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and is now working full time with the China Energy Group at LBNL, a group Levine founded in 1988.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>William Chandler is an expert in energy and climate at the \u003ca href=\"http://carnegieendowment.org/\">Carnegie Endowment for International Peace\u003c/a>, as well as the president of Transition Energy and the co-founder of DEED China—private companies with energy efficiency investments in China. Chandler was a 1992 ACEEE Champion of Energy Efficiency.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c!--more-->\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Both Levine and Chandler provided lots of information about energy efficiency policy and reality in China—past, present, and future. But more important, they each shared a wealth of insight that only comes with a long history of lived experience interacting with people developing energy efficiency in China. Imagine the amount of time they’ve spent in airplanes during the past 25 years!\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One insight from Tuesday night’s plenary is the extraordinary progress China has made since 1980 to curb greenhouse-gas emissions, and lower energy intensity in an economy that has grown by leaps and bounds. Between 1980 and 2002, China’s GDP increased by a factor of 8, while its energy use increased by a factor of only 3. Between 1980 and 2002 energy intensity, or energy per unit of GDP decreased about 5% per year. From 2002 to 2005, energy intensity increased about 5% per year, mainly due to a huge increase in the production of steel and cement. But energy intensity then began to decrease again, dropping 16% between 2005 and 2009.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Looking to the future, Levine outlined a likely scenario where China’s total energy use and greenhouse gas emissions will continue to grow, but then level off in 20 years or so, and then begin a slow steady decrease. But at its peak Chinese energy use per capita will stay well below that of the United States and below that of Europe. China’s emissions will not overwhelm us, according to Levine, because of several reasons, but mainly due to saturation in the appliance and transportation markets in China.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Chandler urged cooperation with China in regards to energy efficiency policy, and warned that a lack of cooperation, “I won’t do anything if you don’t”, will be a suicide pact. We need to better explain to the west China’s successes and commitment to reduce energy use and carbon emissions, encourage China to be more accurate and transparent with its energy and emissions data, remove barriers to business between the United States and China, and resolve diplomatically the rift in relations between China and other nations that are part of the Copenhagen climate agreements.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Can China do its part to mitigate climate change and obtain energy security for itself and other nations? Levine and Chandler both say, “Yes.” But only if the United States and other developed and developing nations do their part as well.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>37.7749295 -122.4194155\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/quest/7375/tuesday-plenary-is-the-climate-right-for-efficiency-in-china","authors":["10175"],"categories":["quest_11765","quest_8"],"tags":["quest_582","quest_984","quest_987","quest_1271","quest_13212"],"label":"quest"},"quest_1141":{"type":"posts","id":"quest_1141","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"quest","id":"1141","score":null,"sort":[1232569359000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"amateur-molecular-biologists","title":"Amateur Molecular Biologists","publishDate":1232569359,"format":"standard","headTitle":"QUEST | KQED Science","labelTerm":{"site":"quest"},"content":"\u003cp>\u003cspan class=\"left\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2009/01/amateurintraining.jpg\">\u003c/span>When I think of an amateur biologist, I imagine a bird watcher. Or perhaps someone investigating a stream or counting fish. What I don't think of is people tinkering with life in their garages. And yet some folks are doing just that.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The AP ran a story the other day about \u003ca href=\"http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081225/ap_on_sc/do_it_yourself_dna\">people working with DNA in their garages\u003c/a> (or apartments). For example, a woman in San Francisco is trying to engineer yogurt bacteria that will glow green in the presence of melamine. This is the chemical that was found in baby formula and pet food from China.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The idea would be that you (or some governmental agency) could check your yogurt with a UV light before you ate it. If it glowed green, then the yogurt was contaminated with melamine.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>These glowing bacteria could help a lot of people avoid melamine poisoning (as long as people could get past the fact that they'd be eating a GMO!). But do we really want people doing this kind of biology at home?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Of course this sort of thing would be very difficult to stop. People can go to science fair project sites and get all the information they need to jury rig a lot of the equipment to do these kinds of experiments. They can also search the web or take a class at their local community college and learn most everything they need to know.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In fact, the technology to do this kind of stuff is so straightforward that we do something similar here at The Tech. We let visitors put a gene in bacteria that causes the bacteria to glow green only in the presence of a special sugar called arabinose.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So unless we put up massive resources to shut down these labs (a \"War on Amateur Labs\"), people are going to be able to do this stuff if they want to. To me, the two big questions are:\u003c/p>\n\n\u003cul class=\"links\">\n\u003cli>\u003cem>Will anything useful come out of these labs?\u003c/em>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003cem>Will something dangerous be released onto an unsuspecting public?\u003c/em>\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003cp>Odds are that nothing too useful will come out of these labs. Sure the melamine bacterium could be useful (it is actually very similar to the outlawed glowing goldfish designed to detect pollutants in the water). But it would be very hard to bring to market. Two potential problems are getting people to eat a GMO and proving to the FDA that it is safe.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One good thing that might come out of this sort of thing is to make biology more accessible and maybe more exciting too. People might think of and do projects for fun that, as a necessary part of accomplishing their goal, will increase their understanding of molecular biology. In other words, they might be more willing to learn this stuff for something fun they thought of.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I can imagine some dangers too. What if someone decides to come up with an anthrax vaccine and makes a dangerous bug that gets loose? Or who knows what else?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There probably isn't a big risk in something like this happening but biology is different than coming up with a new computer program or light bulb in your garage. Biology uses live things that can make copies of themselves and spread pretty far pretty quickly. Traditional labs have controls in place to keep these sorts of things from happening. These unregulated labs may or may not be that careful.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A group in Boston that promotes do-it-yourself biology:\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://diybio.org/\">http://diybio.org/\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>How to make some molecular biology lab equipment at home \u003ca href=\"http://www.scq.ubc.ca/the-macgyver-project-genomic-dna-extraction-and-gel-electrophoresis-experiments-using-everyday-materials/\">http://www.scq.ubc.ca/the-macgyver-project-genomic-dna-extraction-and-gel-electrophoresis-experiments-using-everyday-materials/\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp> 37.332 -121.903\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"When I think of an amateur biologist, I imagine a bird watcher. Or perhaps someone investigating a stream or counting fish. What I don't think of is people tinkering with life in their garages. And yet some folks are doing just that.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1232569359,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":16,"wordCount":616},"headData":{"title":"Amateur Molecular Biologists | KQED","description":"When I think of an amateur biologist, I imagine a bird watcher. Or perhaps someone investigating a stream or counting fish. What I don't think of is people tinkering with life in their garages. And yet some folks are doing just that.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"disqusIdentifier":"1141 http://www.kqed.org/quest/blog/?p=1141","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2009/01/21/amateur-molecular-biologists/","disqusTitle":"Amateur Molecular Biologists","path":"/quest/1141/amateur-molecular-biologists","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003cspan class=\"left\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2009/01/amateurintraining.jpg\">\u003c/span>When I think of an amateur biologist, I imagine a bird watcher. Or perhaps someone investigating a stream or counting fish. What I don't think of is people tinkering with life in their garages. And yet some folks are doing just that.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The AP ran a story the other day about \u003ca href=\"http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081225/ap_on_sc/do_it_yourself_dna\">people working with DNA in their garages\u003c/a> (or apartments). For example, a woman in San Francisco is trying to engineer yogurt bacteria that will glow green in the presence of melamine. This is the chemical that was found in baby formula and pet food from China.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The idea would be that you (or some governmental agency) could check your yogurt with a UV light before you ate it. If it glowed green, then the yogurt was contaminated with melamine.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>These glowing bacteria could help a lot of people avoid melamine poisoning (as long as people could get past the fact that they'd be eating a GMO!). But do we really want people doing this kind of biology at home?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Of course this sort of thing would be very difficult to stop. People can go to science fair project sites and get all the information they need to jury rig a lot of the equipment to do these kinds of experiments. They can also search the web or take a class at their local community college and learn most everything they need to know.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In fact, the technology to do this kind of stuff is so straightforward that we do something similar here at The Tech. We let visitors put a gene in bacteria that causes the bacteria to glow green only in the presence of a special sugar called arabinose.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So unless we put up massive resources to shut down these labs (a \"War on Amateur Labs\"), people are going to be able to do this stuff if they want to. To me, the two big questions are:\u003c/p>\n\n\u003cul class=\"links\">\n\u003cli>\u003cem>Will anything useful come out of these labs?\u003c/em>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003cem>Will something dangerous be released onto an unsuspecting public?\u003c/em>\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003cp>Odds are that nothing too useful will come out of these labs. Sure the melamine bacterium could be useful (it is actually very similar to the outlawed glowing goldfish designed to detect pollutants in the water). But it would be very hard to bring to market. Two potential problems are getting people to eat a GMO and proving to the FDA that it is safe.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One good thing that might come out of this sort of thing is to make biology more accessible and maybe more exciting too. People might think of and do projects for fun that, as a necessary part of accomplishing their goal, will increase their understanding of molecular biology. In other words, they might be more willing to learn this stuff for something fun they thought of.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I can imagine some dangers too. What if someone decides to come up with an anthrax vaccine and makes a dangerous bug that gets loose? Or who knows what else?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There probably isn't a big risk in something like this happening but biology is different than coming up with a new computer program or light bulb in your garage. Biology uses live things that can make copies of themselves and spread pretty far pretty quickly. Traditional labs have controls in place to keep these sorts of things from happening. These unregulated labs may or may not be that careful.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A group in Boston that promotes do-it-yourself biology:\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://diybio.org/\">http://diybio.org/\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>How to make some molecular biology lab equipment at home \u003ca href=\"http://www.scq.ubc.ca/the-macgyver-project-genomic-dna-extraction-and-gel-electrophoresis-experiments-using-everyday-materials/\">http://www.scq.ubc.ca/the-macgyver-project-genomic-dna-extraction-and-gel-electrophoresis-experiments-using-everyday-materials/\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp> 37.332 -121.903\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/quest/1141/amateur-molecular-biologists","authors":["6177"],"categories":["quest_4","quest_8","quest_12"],"tags":["quest_136","quest_199","quest_582","quest_847","quest_1228","quest_1596","quest_1787"],"label":"quest"},"quest_579":{"type":"posts","id":"quest_579","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"quest","id":"579","score":null,"sort":[1210192399000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"mittens-for-bears-and-other-tales","title":"Mittens for Bears and Other Tales","publishDate":1210192399,"format":"standard","headTitle":"QUEST | KQED Science","labelTerm":{"site":"quest"},"content":"\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Why do Moon Bears need you to knit?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan class=\"left\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2008/05/bearmitten-robbie.jpg\">\u003c/span>Once upon a time in the far away land of Hong Kong, a woman named Jill Robinson discovered that beautiful moon bears where being held captive in tiny cages in China and farmed (through their bellies) as a living source for bear bile, which is used in traditional medicines. She decided to do something heroic about the issue and founded the \u003ca href=\"http://www.animalsasia.org\">Animals Asia Foundation\u003c/a>. Animals Asia became a thriving organization, dedicated to ending cruelty and restoring respect for all animals in Asia.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For many moon bears, their stories have a happy ending. Jill and the AAF crew have rescued 500 bears, releasing them into their idyllic sanctuary in Chengdu China. Newly rescued moon bears tentatively step on fresh grass, slowly learn to climb, socialize, scamper through bamboo, wrestle and eat honey, finally becoming a real bear.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Of course, the bears can't go from cages to sanctuary directly; they must endure urgent veterinary care and often surgery to remove the bile equipment from their bodies. Bears must be anaesthetized to receive this care and it is important that they stay warm and comfortable during the process. Just as with humans, the bears' extremities are the first things to get cold and that is where knitters on the West Coast of the United States, worlds away, come in. They must knit giant bear mittens!\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan class=\"right\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2008/05/bearmittens2.jpg\">\u003c/span>The Oakland Zoo is hoping to have some mittens knitted in order to hand them directly to Jill Robinson on May 21, when she speaks at the Oakland Zoo. We will have a knitting party at the zoo on Friday, May 9, from 1pm-3pm. However, mittens can be turned in to the Oakland Zoo at anytime and mailed to China in the hopes that the thousands of moon bears still in captivity will need them soon.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The mitten pattern allows for several weights of yarn and includes instructions for knitting in the round with one circular, two circulars, double-pointed needles, or knitting flat. Finished mittens are about 7\" wide (14\" circumference) with a 12\" foot and 6\" cuff. The pattern is intended to be beginner level, but if you have any questions about the techniques mentioned, you might find the website \u003ca href=\"http://knittinghelp.com\">knittinghelp.com\u003c/a> helpful.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Click here for the pattern and try it yourself:\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/imp/BearBooties.pdf\" title=\"bearbooties.pdf\">bearbooties.pdf\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Oakland Zoo will be working with Article Pract in Oakland on more mittens for bears.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Find out more about Moon Bears and their plight, and meet Jill Robinson on Wednesday, May 21 at 6:30 for the lecture entitle, \"From Prison to Paradise: Rescuing the Endangered Asian Moon Bear. Bring the family to Bear Day at the \u003ca href=\"http://www.oaklandzoo.org\">Oakland Zoo\u003c/a> on Saturday, May 17.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>Some of this information is thanks to Twisted, the Knit Shop in Oregon who is helping the Oregon zoo knit mittens.\u003c/em>\u003cbr>\n\u003cbr clear=\"all\">\u003cbr>\n\u003cspan class=\"left\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/imp/icon_amyg.jpg\">\u003c/span>\u003cem>\u003cstrong>Amy Gotliffe\u003c/strong> is Conservation Manager at \u003ca href=\"http://www.oaklandzoo.org\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"The Oakland Zoo\">The Oakland Zoo\u003c/a>.\u003c/em>\u003cbr>\n\u003cbr clear=\"all\">\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp> 37.7772 -122.166595\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":null,"status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1210192399,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":14,"wordCount":488},"headData":{"title":"Mittens for Bears and Other Tales | KQED","description":"Why do Moon Bears need you to knit? Once upon a time in the far away land of Hong Kong, a woman named Jill Robinson discovered that beautiful moon bears where being held captive in tiny cages in China and farmed (through their bellies) as a living source for bear bile, which is used in","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"disqusIdentifier":"579 http://www.kqed.org/quest/blog/2008/05/07/mittens-for-bears-and-other-tales/","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2008/05/07/mittens-for-bears-and-other-tales/","disqusTitle":"Mittens for Bears and Other Tales","path":"/quest/579/mittens-for-bears-and-other-tales","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Why do Moon Bears need you to knit?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan class=\"left\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2008/05/bearmitten-robbie.jpg\">\u003c/span>Once upon a time in the far away land of Hong Kong, a woman named Jill Robinson discovered that beautiful moon bears where being held captive in tiny cages in China and farmed (through their bellies) as a living source for bear bile, which is used in traditional medicines. She decided to do something heroic about the issue and founded the \u003ca href=\"http://www.animalsasia.org\">Animals Asia Foundation\u003c/a>. Animals Asia became a thriving organization, dedicated to ending cruelty and restoring respect for all animals in Asia.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For many moon bears, their stories have a happy ending. Jill and the AAF crew have rescued 500 bears, releasing them into their idyllic sanctuary in Chengdu China. Newly rescued moon bears tentatively step on fresh grass, slowly learn to climb, socialize, scamper through bamboo, wrestle and eat honey, finally becoming a real bear.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Of course, the bears can't go from cages to sanctuary directly; they must endure urgent veterinary care and often surgery to remove the bile equipment from their bodies. Bears must be anaesthetized to receive this care and it is important that they stay warm and comfortable during the process. Just as with humans, the bears' extremities are the first things to get cold and that is where knitters on the West Coast of the United States, worlds away, come in. They must knit giant bear mittens!\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan class=\"right\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2008/05/bearmittens2.jpg\">\u003c/span>The Oakland Zoo is hoping to have some mittens knitted in order to hand them directly to Jill Robinson on May 21, when she speaks at the Oakland Zoo. We will have a knitting party at the zoo on Friday, May 9, from 1pm-3pm. However, mittens can be turned in to the Oakland Zoo at anytime and mailed to China in the hopes that the thousands of moon bears still in captivity will need them soon.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The mitten pattern allows for several weights of yarn and includes instructions for knitting in the round with one circular, two circulars, double-pointed needles, or knitting flat. Finished mittens are about 7\" wide (14\" circumference) with a 12\" foot and 6\" cuff. The pattern is intended to be beginner level, but if you have any questions about the techniques mentioned, you might find the website \u003ca href=\"http://knittinghelp.com\">knittinghelp.com\u003c/a> helpful.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Click here for the pattern and try it yourself:\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/imp/BearBooties.pdf\" title=\"bearbooties.pdf\">bearbooties.pdf\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Oakland Zoo will be working with Article Pract in Oakland on more mittens for bears.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Find out more about Moon Bears and their plight, and meet Jill Robinson on Wednesday, May 21 at 6:30 for the lecture entitle, \"From Prison to Paradise: Rescuing the Endangered Asian Moon Bear. Bring the family to Bear Day at the \u003ca href=\"http://www.oaklandzoo.org\">Oakland Zoo\u003c/a> on Saturday, May 17.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>Some of this information is thanks to Twisted, the Knit Shop in Oregon who is helping the Oregon zoo knit mittens.\u003c/em>\u003cbr>\n\u003cbr clear=\"all\">\u003cbr>\n\u003cspan class=\"left\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/imp/icon_amyg.jpg\">\u003c/span>\u003cem>\u003cstrong>Amy Gotliffe\u003c/strong> is Conservation Manager at \u003ca href=\"http://www.oaklandzoo.org\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"The Oakland Zoo\">The Oakland Zoo\u003c/a>.\u003c/em>\u003cbr>\n\u003cbr clear=\"all\">\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp> 37.7772 -122.166595\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/quest/579/mittens-for-bears-and-other-tales","authors":["10178"],"categories":["quest_4","quest_9","quest_11"],"tags":["quest_171","quest_295","quest_296","quest_582","quest_1580","quest_3351","quest_1846","quest_1871","quest_2024","quest_2141","quest_2417"],"label":"quest"}},"programsReducer":{"possible":{"id":"possible","title":"Possible","info":"Possible is hosted by entrepreneur Reid Hoffman and writer Aria Finger. 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But is this once sleepy suburb ready for them?","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/American-Suburb-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"/news/series/american-suburb-podcast","meta":{"site":"news","source":"kqed","order":"13"},"link":"/news/series/american-suburb-podcast/","subscribe":{"npr":"https://rpb3r.app.goo.gl/RBrW","apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wa/viewPodcast?mt=2&id=1287748328","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/American-Suburb-p1086805/","rss":"https://ww2.kqed.org/news/series/american-suburb-podcast/feed/podcast","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5tZWdhcGhvbmUuZm0vS1FJTkMzMDExODgxNjA5"}},"baycurious":{"id":"baycurious","title":"Bay Curious","tagline":"Exploring the Bay Area, one question at a time","info":"KQED’s new podcast, Bay Curious, gets to the bottom of the mysteries — both profound and peculiar — that give the Bay Area its unique identity. And we’ll do it with your help! You ask the questions. You decide what Bay Curious investigates. And you join us on the journey to find the answers.","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Bay-Curious-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg","imageAlt":"\"KQED Bay Curious","officialWebsiteLink":"/news/series/baycurious","meta":{"site":"news","source":"kqed","order":"4"},"link":"/podcasts/baycurious","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bay-curious/id1172473406","npr":"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/500557090/bay-curious","rss":"https://ww2.kqed.org/news/category/bay-curious-podcast/feed/podcast","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly93dzIua3FlZC5vcmcvbmV3cy9jYXRlZ29yeS9iYXktY3VyaW91cy1wb2RjYXN0L2ZlZWQvcG9kY2FzdA","stitcher":"https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/kqed/bay-curious","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/6O76IdmhixfijmhTZLIJ8k"}},"bbc-world-service":{"id":"bbc-world-service","title":"BBC World Service","info":"The day's top stories from BBC News compiled twice daily in the week, once at weekends.","airtime":"MON-FRI 9pm-10pm, TUE-FRI 1am-2am","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/BBC-World-Service-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/live:bbc_world_service","meta":{"site":"news","source":"BBC World Service"},"link":"/radio/program/bbc-world-service","subscribe":{"apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/global-news-podcast/id135067274?mt=2","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/BBC-World-Service-p455581/","rss":"https://podcasts.files.bbci.co.uk/p02nq0gn.rss"}},"code-switch-life-kit":{"id":"code-switch-life-kit","title":"Code Switch / Life Kit","info":"\u003cem>Code Switch\u003c/em>, which listeners will hear in the first part of the hour, has fearless and much-needed conversations about race. Hosted by journalists of color, the show tackles the subject of race head-on, exploring how it impacts every part of society — from politics and pop culture to history, sports and more.\u003cbr />\u003cbr />\u003cem>Life Kit\u003c/em>, which will be in the second part of the hour, guides you through spaces and feelings no one prepares you for — from finances to mental health, from workplace microaggressions to imposter syndrome, from relationships to parenting. The show features experts with real world experience and shares their knowledge. Because everyone needs a little help being human.\u003cbr />\u003cbr />\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/510312/codeswitch\">\u003cem>Code Switch\u003c/em> offical site and podcast\u003c/a>\u003cbr />\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/lifekit\">\u003cem>Life Kit\u003c/em> offical site and podcast\u003c/a>\u003cbr />","airtime":"SUN 9pm-10pm","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Code-Switch-Life-Kit-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","meta":{"site":"radio","source":"npr"},"link":"/radio/program/code-switch-life-kit","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/1112190608?mt=2&at=11l79Y&ct=nprdirectory","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnByLm9yZy9yc3MvcG9kY2FzdC5waHA_aWQ9NTEwMzEy","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/3bExJ9JQpkwNhoHvaIIuyV","rss":"https://feeds.npr.org/510312/podcast.xml"}},"commonwealth-club":{"id":"commonwealth-club","title":"Commonwealth Club of California Podcast","info":"The Commonwealth Club of California is the nation's oldest and largest public affairs forum. 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