Center for Investigative ReportingCenter for Investigative Reporting
Uncool Cherries
Dry and Salted
Heat, Salt and Pests Threaten California Fields
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Life is hardly a bowl of cherries if you're trying to grow them in California lately. Cherries and other major fruit crops need a certain number of \"chilling hours\" in order to produce healthy blossoms and fruit. But in recent years, the spring nights have brought warmer temperatures and less of the legendary Valley fog that helps keep the chill on. (Reporter: Mark Schapiro / Producer: Serene Fang)\u003cbr>\n\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Uncool Cherries\u003c/strong>is one of the three stories in \u003cstrong>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/video/heat-and-harvest/\" title=\"Heat and Harvest\" target=\"_blank\">Heat and Harvest\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>, a half-hour documentary on how climate change is challenging California’s $30 billion agricultural industry. \u003cstrong>Heat and Harvest \u003c/strong>is a co-production of KQED and the \u003ca title=\"Center for Investigative Reporting\" href=\"http://cironline.org/\" target=\"_blank\">Center for Investigative Reporting\u003c/a> and airs on KQED channel 9 on Friday Sept. 28 and Monday Oct. 1 at 7:30 pm. The film also airs on PBS stations around California in September and October. Check local listings.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>Higher temperatures bring new struggles to California grape and cherry growers\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>By Mark Schapiro\u003cbr>\nCenter for Investigative Reporting\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>This article is part 2 of a two-part series published in newspapers across California on Fri. Sept. 28.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Farmers have always been gamblers, long accustomed to betting on the probabilities of the weather. But for the Napa Valley, where the temperatures have been ideal for the wine industry, the changes could be significant.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“They’re used to rolling the dice every year,” said \u003ca href=\"http://creeksidescience.com/people/\" title=\"Stuart Weiss bio\" target=\"_blank\">Stuart Weiss\u003c/a>, a conservation biologist and chief scientist at the \u003ca href=\"http://creeksidescience.com/\" title=\"Creekside Center for Earth Observation\" target=\"_blank\">Creekside Center for Earth Observation\u003c/a>, which assists growers and municipalities dealing with the disruptions caused by the changing climate. “Now, though, climate change is stacking the dice.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Over the next 30 years, Weiss estimates, the temperature in the Napa Valley will rise by 1.8 degrees – an 80 percent jump over previous rates, which were about 1 degree every three decades since temperatures were first recorded in 1896. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He has turned worries about climate change into a business opportunity: His other company, \u003ca href=\"http://www.viticision.com/\" title=\"Viticision\" target=\"_blank\">Viticision\u003c/a>, consults with growers facing the shifting conditions on their land. \u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">California produces 95 percent of the country’s apricots, almonds, artichokes, figs, kiwis, raisin grapes, olives, cling peaches, dried plums, persimmons, pistachios and walnuts. \u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Weiss, who has been studying butterflies since his days at Stanford University, realized eight years ago that what he was learning about the Lepidoptera family could be applied to wine grapes. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He noticed that the processes that a caterpillar larva uses to metabolize energy drawn from the sun and water prior to its emergence as a butterfly were similar to how a grapevine metabolizes the same elements before producing a fully formed wine grape.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Now, he consults with wineries dealing with the alterations in sun and water triggered by climate change. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The verbs are the same,” Weiss said. “It’s just the nouns that have shifted.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Alterations in the California climate have prompted the insurance industry to start assessing the potential damage and its financial exposure.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The nation’s crop insurance system, a hybrid of private insurers backed by the \u003ca href=\"http://www.rma.usda.gov/\" title=\"Risk Management Agency\" target=\"_blank\">U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Risk Management Agency\u003c/a>, has been paying out steadily increasing amounts for weather-related damages across the country, according to the Congressional Research Service – from $2.1 billion in 2000 to a record-breaking $12.1 billion last year. This summer’s drought in the Midwest is expected to further catapult insurance payments. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Although it’s difficult to distinguish how many extreme events would have occurred without the atmospheric concentration of CO2, the Risk Management Agency now has identified climate change as one of the major risk factors for U.S. agriculture. \u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">The Risk Management Agency now has identified climate change as one of the major risk factors for U.S. agriculture. \u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>In a 2010 report, it paid particular attention to the vulnerabilities of California, which produces 95 percent of the country’s apricots, almonds, artichokes, figs, kiwis, raisin grapes, olives, cling peaches, dried plums, persimmons, pistachios and walnuts. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Since the production of these commodities is so concentrated into one geographical area the climatic impacts in these agricultural markets could be profound,” the report concluded.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The agency even suggested an adaptation strategy that sounds very much like the breeding efforts already under way at nurseries across the Central Valley: more research into “drought-tolerant, heat-tolerant, and other crop varieties better suited to the changing conditions.”\u003cbr>\nThe California office of the Risk Management Agency is considering whether year-round farming is a reasonable risk for the agency to assume in the Central and Imperial valleys, where water stresses are intensifying. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the Central Valley, the agency is considering requiring farmers relying on nonirrigated water to fallow some of their land during the summer months to hedge against potential losses when water supplies fall short. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And last year, the agency withdrew its insurance rating for parts of Imperial County, which it determined was uninsurable for proposed wheat farming due to concerns about the reliability of the water supply.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The high volatility associated with climate change prompted a team of Silicon Valley entrepreneurs to found the first insurance company, \u003ca href=\"http://www.climate.com/\" title=\"The Climate Corporation\" target=\"_blank\">The Climate Corporation\u003c/a>, to focus exclusively on insuring against swings in the weather. \u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">The high volatility associated with climate change prompted a team of Silicon Valley entrepreneurs to found the first insurance company to focus exclusively on insuring against swings in the weather.\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://www.climate.com/company/leadership/\" title=\"David Friedberg bio\" target=\"_blank\">David Friedberg\u003c/a> was a corporate development executive at Google before founding the company in San Francisco in 2006, as farmers found themselves at the front lines of climate change. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Things are getting far more erratic and difficult to predict,” said Friedberg, whose background is in physics and mathematics.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One likely result of the atmospheric tumult, he added, is rising food prices. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Farmers are having to hedge and pay for insurance claims,” he said. “That increases the price of food, and when they experience losses, we and others pay them for those losses, but that also means their food is not being produced.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For example, the effects of the Midwest drought this summer, which has devastated food crops for cattle and chicken – mostly corn and soybeans – will be rippling back to California in the form of prices that are 10 to 15 percent higher for beef, milk and poultry, according to the USDA and other analysts. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Wine country climate shake-up\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Napa vintners already are feeling the effects of the changing odds. In 2010, the wine industry had one of its worst years on record when days of record-breaking heat in August were followed by a few freakish days of frost. \u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_45202\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/030-Grapes-6-29-07_resized.jpg\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/030-Grapes-6-29-07_resized.jpg\" alt=\"\" title=\"Wine grapes in Napa Valley\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" class=\"size-full wp-image-45202\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/030-Grapes-6-29-07_resized.jpg 640w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/030-Grapes-6-29-07_resized-400x225.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Wine grapes in Napa Valley are ripening earlier in the season. This shrinks the timespan for their full development. Photo: Joan Johnson, KQED.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Weiss, the conservation biologist, cites a map that offers a sobering perspective on future Napa varietals, demonstrating how the increasing heat is triggering the ripening process earlier in the season – from the first week of October, for example, into the third or fourth week of September, which shrinks the timespan for full development of wine grapes. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“You’re ripening earlier in a warmer time of the year under a warmer climate, so you’re getting a double whammy,” he said. Even just a week’s difference, he said, can have an impact on the quality of a cabernet sauvignon. \u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">“There are a lot of similarities between Australia and California, and if we don’t look to places that have undergone this sort of ‘first shot across the bow’ of the effect of climate change, I think we’d be doing ourselves a disservice.” Stuart Weiss, conservation biologist\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Jeff Yasui, director of the California office of the Risk Management Agency, said one sign of the growing stress in wine country is that over the past four years, the number of wine grape growers who increased their insurance coverage from the base-level policy – which covers half of all losses – to more substantial, and more expensive, protection increased from 28 percent of all policies to 40 percent this year. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One of Weiss’ clients is \u003ca href=\"http://www.treasurywineestates.com/\" title=\"Treasury Wine Estates\" target=\"_blank\">Treasury Wine Estates\u003c/a>, one of the largest wine companies in Australia, which also owns some 6,000 acres and eight labels – including Beringer Vineyards, Stags’ Leap Winery and Souverain – in Napa and Sonoma counties. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Australia experienced an early taste of climate change in 2009 and 2010, Weiss said, when heat waves and drought led to dramatic drops in yield from shriveled grapevines, leading to significant financial losses for the country’s wine industry. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"http://www.csiro.au/\" title=\"CSIRO\" target=\"_blank\">national science agency of Australia\u003c/a> warns that as the weather gets hotter, the growing season for Australian wines is steadily shrinking – at a rate that’s been accelerating over the past 40 years, a phenomenon similar to that which Weiss has identified in Napa County. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There are a lot of similarities between Australia and California,” Weiss said, “and if we don’t look to places that have undergone this sort of ‘first shot across the bow’ of the effect of climate change, I think we’d be doing ourselves a disservice.” \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>From his home office on a rustic road in Menlo Park, shaded by a huge oak tree, Weiss uses sophisticated monitors in the fields to track the increasing amount of sun hitting each grape and attempt to predict how moving a row by a few feet, or adjusting a trellis, might offer protection against the sun’s intensifying rays. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That’s how climate change is happening,” Weiss said. “Slow but steady increases in heat are already causing disarray in wine country.” \u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">“Slow but steady increases in heat are already causing disarray in wine country.” Stuart Weiss\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>With that information, he’s able to suggest how wineries could move forward. Vineyards generally are productive over 25-year spans; it takes about five years for new vines to start producing grapes, and the vines generally are replaced every 25 to 30 years. Current vines were planted at a time of weather patterns that are now changing. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Many fields are at the end of their 25-year cycle and are about to be replanted. Weiss also offers advice on the varietals most suited to the next quarter-century of changing climate – whether to plant, for example, another crop of cabernet sauvignon, which thrives in cooler climates, or a more heat-tolerant variety like pinot noir, zinfandel or chardonnay. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“With the new cycle, we don’t want to lock in mistakes,” Weiss said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Cherry crops feel the heat \u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For a look into the future, consider what’s already happening to the state’s cherry crop.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Last April, the cherries were blooming in the Colombini family orchard in the San Joaquin Valley, their pink and white blossoms a signal that the harvest would be coming in six weeks’ time.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_45180\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/ch09_packflr_resized1.jpg\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/ch09_packflr_resized1.jpg\" alt=\"\" title=\"Workers pack cherries at Delta Packing, Modesto, California\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" class=\"size-full wp-image-45180\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/ch09_packflr_resized1.jpg 640w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/ch09_packflr_resized1-400x225.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Workers pack cherries at Delta Packing, in Modesto. This year, the company saw another 50 percent drop in cherries from previous years. Photo: Center for Investigative Reporting. \u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>But there was trouble lurking under those delicate blossoms. Jeff Colombini, director of the family company, Lodi Farming, pointed to the erratic blooms on his trees – a blossom here, a blossom there, but many stunted, half-grown blossoms. That is a sign, he said, of the “stresses that come with not enough chill hours.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Most of the highest-quality cherry varieties in the state are tuned for a November or December chill, which functions to slow down the metabolism of the nascent fruits and thus elongates the ripening process that comes with the onset of warmer weather. \u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">Too much time in the sun during the budding process leads to what shoppers regularly encounter: “doubling,” in which two cherries are fused like conjoined twins, and “spurring,” a little raisinlike growth stuck to the side of the fruit.\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>For a perfect California cherry, the trees need 1,200 to 1,400 hours of “chill time.” But Joseph Grant, a UC Cooperative Extension farm adviser based in Stockton, said that lately, cherry growers have been seeing more like 1,000 to 1,100 hours per season. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Another factor may be the fog: Early results from a study at UC Berkeley’s College of Natural Resources suggest that a lack of the usual fog hours also might be contributing to overheating of cherry buds at a time when they need to be shaded from the sun.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re seeing those low-chill effects every year now, as opposed to how we used to see them once every 10 years or so,” Grant said. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While the overall cherry crop recovered late in the season, the overall effect of the shortened chill, according to Grant, is declining quality of California cherries. They’re shrinking in size, and the extended ripening time means the cherries are not as firm. When rains came unexpectedly during harvest time last year, yields dropped in parts of the county by more than half. This year, the Delta Packing Co., based in Lodi, saw another 50 percent drop in cherries from previous years, according to Matt Nowak, a sales representative for the company. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The lack of chilly nights in the winter makes cherries one of the most vulnerable to climate change,” said \u003ca href=\"http://foodsecurity.stanford.edu/people/david_lobell\" title=\"David Lobell bio\" target=\"_blank\">David Lobell\u003c/a>, a fellow at Stanford’s Center on Food Security and the Environment. Lobell co-wrote a report published last November predicting dramatic declines in cherry yields under a 2-degree warming scenario. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Crop insurance in the red\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Until 2000, there was no government-subsidized insurance program for cherry farmers. But that year, according to Yasui, of the Risk Management Agency, farmers began responding to the turbulent weather by requesting that the USDA extend them coverage. Since then, there’s been a steady rise in cherry farmers obtaining climate-related insurance.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">“The climate here around Stockton is looking more and more like the climate down in Bakersfield.” Joseph Grant, farm adviser \u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Last year, California cherry growers received a record $22.5 million in crop insurance payouts – sending crop insurers into the red. For every $1 paid into the system for cherry policies that year, $1.60 was paid to farmers. The USDA paid out almost $8 million to subsidize the losses. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“What’s happening,” Grant said, “is that the climate here around Stockton is looking more and more like the climate down in Bakersfield.” \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Two parallel changes are unfolding at either end of the San Joaquin Valley. The northern cherries, planted decades ago during cooler climactic conditions, now are growing in conditions more like those farther south in Bakersfield. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And specially tailored varieties in the south are being grown in conditions far hotter than the temperatures for which they were bred. A lack of chill in the northern San Joaquin is damaging cherries, while higher temperatures are harming cherries in the southern San Joaquin. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Another consequence of the longer and hotter ripening season, Grant said, is “deformities in the cherry flowers and abnormalities in the fruit.” \u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_45176\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/ch01_blossom_resized1.jpg\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/ch01_blossom_resized1-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" title=\"Cherry blossom\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\" class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-45176\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Cherries need a certain number of \"chilling hours\" to form perfect fruit. Warmer temperatures and less fog are impacting the California cherry harvest. Photo: Center for Investigative Reporting.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Too much time in the sun during the budding process leads to what shoppers regularly encounter: “doubling,” in which two cherries are fused like conjoined twins, and “spurring,” a little raisinlike growth stuck to the side of the fruit.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Those deformities generally weaken the position of California cherries in the marketplace, threatening California’s competitive advantage in producing cherries earlier in the season than in Oregon and Washington – where the climate for the fruit remains ideal.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Cherries’ protracted ripening, according to Colombini, also means that the farm workers whom he and other growers usually hire for a week or so during harvest season must be hired for an extra two or three weeks – which means more payroll and more expensive cherries.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The problem down the line here in California is that we could see the displacement of an entire industry,” Grant said. “You may have better conditions up north, but Joe Farmer has land here, not in Oregon.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ultimately, said Paul Wenger, president of the \u003ca href=\"http://www.cfbf.com/\" title=\"California Farm Bureau Federation\" target=\"_blank\">California Farm Bureau Federation\u003c/a>, farmers are “dealing with the changing climate every day.” Wenger raises almonds in the Central Valley.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Farmers are adaptable,” he said. “If crops aren’t working in one place, they’ll switch crops. Or they’ll move their crops.” \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>This story was edited by Robert Salladay and copy edited by Nikki Frick and Christine Lee. \u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This story was produced by the nonprofit \u003ca href=\"http://cironline.org/\" title=\"Center for Investigative Reporting\" target=\"_blank\">Center for Investigative Reporting\u003c/a>, the country’s largest investigative reporting team, in collaboration with KQED. Mark Schapiro can be reached at \u003ca href=\"mailto:mschapiro@cironline.org\">mschapiro@cironline.org\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Climate change is contributing to reduced cherry yields in California. This video is part of the Heat and Harvest series, co-produced by KQED and the Center for Investigative Reporting.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1457567118,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":67,"wordCount":2881},"headData":{"title":"Uncool Cherries | KQED","description":"Climate change is contributing to reduced cherry yields in California. This video is part of the Heat and Harvest series, co-produced by KQED and the Center for Investigative Reporting.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"Uncool Cherries","datePublished":"2012-09-28T08:00:40.000Z","dateModified":"2016-03-09T23:45:18.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"disqusIdentifier":"45172 http://science.kqed.org/quest/?post_type=videos&p=45172","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/09/28/uncool-cherries/","disqusTitle":"Uncool Cherries","videoEmbed":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aU6pWKkfYd0","path":"/quest/45172/uncool-cherries","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Uncool Cherries\u003c/strong> looks at the challenges facing cherry growers near Stockton. Life is hardly a bowl of cherries if you're trying to grow them in California lately. Cherries and other major fruit crops need a certain number of \"chilling hours\" in order to produce healthy blossoms and fruit. But in recent years, the spring nights have brought warmer temperatures and less of the legendary Valley fog that helps keep the chill on. (Reporter: Mark Schapiro / Producer: Serene Fang)\u003cbr>\n\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Uncool Cherries\u003c/strong>is one of the three stories in \u003cstrong>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/video/heat-and-harvest/\" title=\"Heat and Harvest\" target=\"_blank\">Heat and Harvest\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>, a half-hour documentary on how climate change is challenging California’s $30 billion agricultural industry. \u003cstrong>Heat and Harvest \u003c/strong>is a co-production of KQED and the \u003ca title=\"Center for Investigative Reporting\" href=\"http://cironline.org/\" target=\"_blank\">Center for Investigative Reporting\u003c/a> and airs on KQED channel 9 on Friday Sept. 28 and Monday Oct. 1 at 7:30 pm. The film also airs on PBS stations around California in September and October. Check local listings.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>Higher temperatures bring new struggles to California grape and cherry growers\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>By Mark Schapiro\u003cbr>\nCenter for Investigative Reporting\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>This article is part 2 of a two-part series published in newspapers across California on Fri. Sept. 28.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Farmers have always been gamblers, long accustomed to betting on the probabilities of the weather. But for the Napa Valley, where the temperatures have been ideal for the wine industry, the changes could be significant.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“They’re used to rolling the dice every year,” said \u003ca href=\"http://creeksidescience.com/people/\" title=\"Stuart Weiss bio\" target=\"_blank\">Stuart Weiss\u003c/a>, a conservation biologist and chief scientist at the \u003ca href=\"http://creeksidescience.com/\" title=\"Creekside Center for Earth Observation\" target=\"_blank\">Creekside Center for Earth Observation\u003c/a>, which assists growers and municipalities dealing with the disruptions caused by the changing climate. “Now, though, climate change is stacking the dice.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Over the next 30 years, Weiss estimates, the temperature in the Napa Valley will rise by 1.8 degrees – an 80 percent jump over previous rates, which were about 1 degree every three decades since temperatures were first recorded in 1896. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He has turned worries about climate change into a business opportunity: His other company, \u003ca href=\"http://www.viticision.com/\" title=\"Viticision\" target=\"_blank\">Viticision\u003c/a>, consults with growers facing the shifting conditions on their land. \u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">California produces 95 percent of the country’s apricots, almonds, artichokes, figs, kiwis, raisin grapes, olives, cling peaches, dried plums, persimmons, pistachios and walnuts. \u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Weiss, who has been studying butterflies since his days at Stanford University, realized eight years ago that what he was learning about the Lepidoptera family could be applied to wine grapes. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He noticed that the processes that a caterpillar larva uses to metabolize energy drawn from the sun and water prior to its emergence as a butterfly were similar to how a grapevine metabolizes the same elements before producing a fully formed wine grape.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Now, he consults with wineries dealing with the alterations in sun and water triggered by climate change. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The verbs are the same,” Weiss said. “It’s just the nouns that have shifted.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Alterations in the California climate have prompted the insurance industry to start assessing the potential damage and its financial exposure.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The nation’s crop insurance system, a hybrid of private insurers backed by the \u003ca href=\"http://www.rma.usda.gov/\" title=\"Risk Management Agency\" target=\"_blank\">U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Risk Management Agency\u003c/a>, has been paying out steadily increasing amounts for weather-related damages across the country, according to the Congressional Research Service – from $2.1 billion in 2000 to a record-breaking $12.1 billion last year. This summer’s drought in the Midwest is expected to further catapult insurance payments. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Although it’s difficult to distinguish how many extreme events would have occurred without the atmospheric concentration of CO2, the Risk Management Agency now has identified climate change as one of the major risk factors for U.S. agriculture. \u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">The Risk Management Agency now has identified climate change as one of the major risk factors for U.S. agriculture. \u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>In a 2010 report, it paid particular attention to the vulnerabilities of California, which produces 95 percent of the country’s apricots, almonds, artichokes, figs, kiwis, raisin grapes, olives, cling peaches, dried plums, persimmons, pistachios and walnuts. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Since the production of these commodities is so concentrated into one geographical area the climatic impacts in these agricultural markets could be profound,” the report concluded.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The agency even suggested an adaptation strategy that sounds very much like the breeding efforts already under way at nurseries across the Central Valley: more research into “drought-tolerant, heat-tolerant, and other crop varieties better suited to the changing conditions.”\u003cbr>\nThe California office of the Risk Management Agency is considering whether year-round farming is a reasonable risk for the agency to assume in the Central and Imperial valleys, where water stresses are intensifying. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the Central Valley, the agency is considering requiring farmers relying on nonirrigated water to fallow some of their land during the summer months to hedge against potential losses when water supplies fall short. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And last year, the agency withdrew its insurance rating for parts of Imperial County, which it determined was uninsurable for proposed wheat farming due to concerns about the reliability of the water supply.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The high volatility associated with climate change prompted a team of Silicon Valley entrepreneurs to found the first insurance company, \u003ca href=\"http://www.climate.com/\" title=\"The Climate Corporation\" target=\"_blank\">The Climate Corporation\u003c/a>, to focus exclusively on insuring against swings in the weather. \u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">The high volatility associated with climate change prompted a team of Silicon Valley entrepreneurs to found the first insurance company to focus exclusively on insuring against swings in the weather.\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://www.climate.com/company/leadership/\" title=\"David Friedberg bio\" target=\"_blank\">David Friedberg\u003c/a> was a corporate development executive at Google before founding the company in San Francisco in 2006, as farmers found themselves at the front lines of climate change. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Things are getting far more erratic and difficult to predict,” said Friedberg, whose background is in physics and mathematics.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One likely result of the atmospheric tumult, he added, is rising food prices. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Farmers are having to hedge and pay for insurance claims,” he said. “That increases the price of food, and when they experience losses, we and others pay them for those losses, but that also means their food is not being produced.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For example, the effects of the Midwest drought this summer, which has devastated food crops for cattle and chicken – mostly corn and soybeans – will be rippling back to California in the form of prices that are 10 to 15 percent higher for beef, milk and poultry, according to the USDA and other analysts. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Wine country climate shake-up\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Napa vintners already are feeling the effects of the changing odds. In 2010, the wine industry had one of its worst years on record when days of record-breaking heat in August were followed by a few freakish days of frost. \u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_45202\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/030-Grapes-6-29-07_resized.jpg\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/030-Grapes-6-29-07_resized.jpg\" alt=\"\" title=\"Wine grapes in Napa Valley\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" class=\"size-full wp-image-45202\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/030-Grapes-6-29-07_resized.jpg 640w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/030-Grapes-6-29-07_resized-400x225.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Wine grapes in Napa Valley are ripening earlier in the season. This shrinks the timespan for their full development. Photo: Joan Johnson, KQED.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Weiss, the conservation biologist, cites a map that offers a sobering perspective on future Napa varietals, demonstrating how the increasing heat is triggering the ripening process earlier in the season – from the first week of October, for example, into the third or fourth week of September, which shrinks the timespan for full development of wine grapes. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“You’re ripening earlier in a warmer time of the year under a warmer climate, so you’re getting a double whammy,” he said. Even just a week’s difference, he said, can have an impact on the quality of a cabernet sauvignon. \u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">“There are a lot of similarities between Australia and California, and if we don’t look to places that have undergone this sort of ‘first shot across the bow’ of the effect of climate change, I think we’d be doing ourselves a disservice.” Stuart Weiss, conservation biologist\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Jeff Yasui, director of the California office of the Risk Management Agency, said one sign of the growing stress in wine country is that over the past four years, the number of wine grape growers who increased their insurance coverage from the base-level policy – which covers half of all losses – to more substantial, and more expensive, protection increased from 28 percent of all policies to 40 percent this year. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One of Weiss’ clients is \u003ca href=\"http://www.treasurywineestates.com/\" title=\"Treasury Wine Estates\" target=\"_blank\">Treasury Wine Estates\u003c/a>, one of the largest wine companies in Australia, which also owns some 6,000 acres and eight labels – including Beringer Vineyards, Stags’ Leap Winery and Souverain – in Napa and Sonoma counties. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Australia experienced an early taste of climate change in 2009 and 2010, Weiss said, when heat waves and drought led to dramatic drops in yield from shriveled grapevines, leading to significant financial losses for the country’s wine industry. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"http://www.csiro.au/\" title=\"CSIRO\" target=\"_blank\">national science agency of Australia\u003c/a> warns that as the weather gets hotter, the growing season for Australian wines is steadily shrinking – at a rate that’s been accelerating over the past 40 years, a phenomenon similar to that which Weiss has identified in Napa County. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There are a lot of similarities between Australia and California,” Weiss said, “and if we don’t look to places that have undergone this sort of ‘first shot across the bow’ of the effect of climate change, I think we’d be doing ourselves a disservice.” \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>From his home office on a rustic road in Menlo Park, shaded by a huge oak tree, Weiss uses sophisticated monitors in the fields to track the increasing amount of sun hitting each grape and attempt to predict how moving a row by a few feet, or adjusting a trellis, might offer protection against the sun’s intensifying rays. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That’s how climate change is happening,” Weiss said. “Slow but steady increases in heat are already causing disarray in wine country.” \u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">“Slow but steady increases in heat are already causing disarray in wine country.” Stuart Weiss\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>With that information, he’s able to suggest how wineries could move forward. Vineyards generally are productive over 25-year spans; it takes about five years for new vines to start producing grapes, and the vines generally are replaced every 25 to 30 years. Current vines were planted at a time of weather patterns that are now changing. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Many fields are at the end of their 25-year cycle and are about to be replanted. Weiss also offers advice on the varietals most suited to the next quarter-century of changing climate – whether to plant, for example, another crop of cabernet sauvignon, which thrives in cooler climates, or a more heat-tolerant variety like pinot noir, zinfandel or chardonnay. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“With the new cycle, we don’t want to lock in mistakes,” Weiss said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Cherry crops feel the heat \u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For a look into the future, consider what’s already happening to the state’s cherry crop.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Last April, the cherries were blooming in the Colombini family orchard in the San Joaquin Valley, their pink and white blossoms a signal that the harvest would be coming in six weeks’ time.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_45180\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/ch09_packflr_resized1.jpg\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/ch09_packflr_resized1.jpg\" alt=\"\" title=\"Workers pack cherries at Delta Packing, Modesto, California\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" class=\"size-full wp-image-45180\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/ch09_packflr_resized1.jpg 640w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/ch09_packflr_resized1-400x225.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Workers pack cherries at Delta Packing, in Modesto. This year, the company saw another 50 percent drop in cherries from previous years. Photo: Center for Investigative Reporting. \u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>But there was trouble lurking under those delicate blossoms. Jeff Colombini, director of the family company, Lodi Farming, pointed to the erratic blooms on his trees – a blossom here, a blossom there, but many stunted, half-grown blossoms. That is a sign, he said, of the “stresses that come with not enough chill hours.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Most of the highest-quality cherry varieties in the state are tuned for a November or December chill, which functions to slow down the metabolism of the nascent fruits and thus elongates the ripening process that comes with the onset of warmer weather. \u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">Too much time in the sun during the budding process leads to what shoppers regularly encounter: “doubling,” in which two cherries are fused like conjoined twins, and “spurring,” a little raisinlike growth stuck to the side of the fruit.\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>For a perfect California cherry, the trees need 1,200 to 1,400 hours of “chill time.” But Joseph Grant, a UC Cooperative Extension farm adviser based in Stockton, said that lately, cherry growers have been seeing more like 1,000 to 1,100 hours per season. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Another factor may be the fog: Early results from a study at UC Berkeley’s College of Natural Resources suggest that a lack of the usual fog hours also might be contributing to overheating of cherry buds at a time when they need to be shaded from the sun.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re seeing those low-chill effects every year now, as opposed to how we used to see them once every 10 years or so,” Grant said. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While the overall cherry crop recovered late in the season, the overall effect of the shortened chill, according to Grant, is declining quality of California cherries. They’re shrinking in size, and the extended ripening time means the cherries are not as firm. When rains came unexpectedly during harvest time last year, yields dropped in parts of the county by more than half. This year, the Delta Packing Co., based in Lodi, saw another 50 percent drop in cherries from previous years, according to Matt Nowak, a sales representative for the company. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The lack of chilly nights in the winter makes cherries one of the most vulnerable to climate change,” said \u003ca href=\"http://foodsecurity.stanford.edu/people/david_lobell\" title=\"David Lobell bio\" target=\"_blank\">David Lobell\u003c/a>, a fellow at Stanford’s Center on Food Security and the Environment. Lobell co-wrote a report published last November predicting dramatic declines in cherry yields under a 2-degree warming scenario. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Crop insurance in the red\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Until 2000, there was no government-subsidized insurance program for cherry farmers. But that year, according to Yasui, of the Risk Management Agency, farmers began responding to the turbulent weather by requesting that the USDA extend them coverage. Since then, there’s been a steady rise in cherry farmers obtaining climate-related insurance.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">“The climate here around Stockton is looking more and more like the climate down in Bakersfield.” Joseph Grant, farm adviser \u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Last year, California cherry growers received a record $22.5 million in crop insurance payouts – sending crop insurers into the red. For every $1 paid into the system for cherry policies that year, $1.60 was paid to farmers. The USDA paid out almost $8 million to subsidize the losses. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“What’s happening,” Grant said, “is that the climate here around Stockton is looking more and more like the climate down in Bakersfield.” \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Two parallel changes are unfolding at either end of the San Joaquin Valley. The northern cherries, planted decades ago during cooler climactic conditions, now are growing in conditions more like those farther south in Bakersfield. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And specially tailored varieties in the south are being grown in conditions far hotter than the temperatures for which they were bred. A lack of chill in the northern San Joaquin is damaging cherries, while higher temperatures are harming cherries in the southern San Joaquin. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Another consequence of the longer and hotter ripening season, Grant said, is “deformities in the cherry flowers and abnormalities in the fruit.” \u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_45176\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/ch01_blossom_resized1.jpg\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/ch01_blossom_resized1-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" title=\"Cherry blossom\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\" class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-45176\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Cherries need a certain number of \"chilling hours\" to form perfect fruit. Warmer temperatures and less fog are impacting the California cherry harvest. Photo: Center for Investigative Reporting.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Too much time in the sun during the budding process leads to what shoppers regularly encounter: “doubling,” in which two cherries are fused like conjoined twins, and “spurring,” a little raisinlike growth stuck to the side of the fruit.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Those deformities generally weaken the position of California cherries in the marketplace, threatening California’s competitive advantage in producing cherries earlier in the season than in Oregon and Washington – where the climate for the fruit remains ideal.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Cherries’ protracted ripening, according to Colombini, also means that the farm workers whom he and other growers usually hire for a week or so during harvest season must be hired for an extra two or three weeks – which means more payroll and more expensive cherries.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The problem down the line here in California is that we could see the displacement of an entire industry,” Grant said. “You may have better conditions up north, but Joe Farmer has land here, not in Oregon.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ultimately, said Paul Wenger, president of the \u003ca href=\"http://www.cfbf.com/\" title=\"California Farm Bureau Federation\" target=\"_blank\">California Farm Bureau Federation\u003c/a>, farmers are “dealing with the changing climate every day.” Wenger raises almonds in the Central Valley.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Farmers are adaptable,” he said. “If crops aren’t working in one place, they’ll switch crops. Or they’ll move their crops.” \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>This story was edited by Robert Salladay and copy edited by Nikki Frick and Christine Lee. \u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"floatright"},"numeric":["floatright"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This story was produced by the nonprofit \u003ca href=\"http://cironline.org/\" title=\"Center for Investigative Reporting\" target=\"_blank\">Center for Investigative Reporting\u003c/a>, the country’s largest investigative reporting team, in collaboration with KQED. Mark Schapiro can be reached at \u003ca href=\"mailto:mschapiro@cironline.org\">mschapiro@cironline.org\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/quest/45172/uncool-cherries","authors":["10385"],"series":["quest_13295"],"categories":["quest_6","quest_9","quest_3229","quest_3422","quest_3233"],"tags":["quest_11484","quest_2893","quest_3071"],"collections":["quest_3354"],"featImg":"quest_45175","label":"quest_13295"},"quest_45029":{"type":"posts","id":"quest_45029","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"quest","id":"45029","score":null,"sort":[1348732818000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"dry-and-salted","title":"Dry and Salted","publishDate":1348732818,"format":"video","headTitle":"Heat and Harvest | QUEST | KQED Science","labelTerm":{"term":13295,"site":"quest"},"content":"\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Dry and Salted\u003c/strong> examines the major wildcards in California's farming future: water and salt. Growers are having to learn to get along with less of the first and more of the second. That can mean leaving once-productive fields fallow or having to find less water-intensive crops and irrigation methods. But water quality is also presenting a challenge as growers find themselves having to cope with salt in their groundwater and the threat of encroaching saltwater from rising seas. (Reporter: Mark Schapiro / Producer: Serene Fang)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Dry and Salted \u003c/strong>is one of the three stories in \u003cstrong>\u003ca title=\"Heat and Harvest\" href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/video/heat-and-harvest/\" target=\"_blank\">Heat and Harvest\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>, a half-hour documentary on how climate change is challenging California’s $30 billion agricultural industry. \u003cstrong>Heat and Harvest \u003c/strong>is a co-production of KQED and the \u003ca title=\"Center for Investigative Reporting\" href=\"http://cironline.org/\" target=\"_blank\">Center for Investigative Reporting\u003c/a> and airs on KQED channel 9 on Friday Sept. 28 and Monday Oct. 1 at 7:30 pm. The film also airs on PBS stations around California in September and October. Check local listings.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>\u003cbr>\n\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003ch1>Volatile weather creates dramatic changes for California farmers\u003c/h1>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nBy Mark Schapiro\u003cbr>\nCenter for Investigative Reporting\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>This article is part 1 of a two-part series published in newspapers across California on Thurs. Sept. 27.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ten miles outside of Modesto, in the farming town of Hughson just off Highway 99, the \u003ca title=\"Duarte Nursery\" href=\"http://duartenursery.com/\" target=\"_blank\">Duarte Nursery\u003c/a> is at the front line of dramatic changes now under way in California’s immense agriculture industry.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_45068\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/sa08_Jduarte_resized.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-45068\" title=\"John Duarte, of Duarte Nursery\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/sa08_Jduarte_resized-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">John Duarte, of Duarte Nursery. Photo: Center for Investigative Reporting.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The family-run nursery, founded in 1976, is one of the largest in the United States, and there’s a good chance the berries, nuts and citrus fruits eaten across the West began their journey to market as seedlings in Duarte’s 30 acres of greenhouses, labs and breeding stations.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The nursery’s owners have built a thriving business using state-of-the-art techniques to develop varieties adapted to the particular conditions and pests California farmers face.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>These days, according to John Duarte, president of the nursery, that means breeding for elevated levels of heat and salt, which researchers say are symptoms of climate change – even if Duarte doesn’t necessarily see it that way.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Whether it’s carbon built up in the atmosphere or just friggin’ bad luck,” he said, “the conditions are straining us.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The cause of Duarte’s woes might be in dispute among farmers in California’s $31 billion agriculture industry. But the symptoms are clear. From the vast fields of fruits and nuts in the Central Valley to the wineries of Napa and Sonoma, the increasingly volatile weather is altering the fundamental conditions for growing food, California’s largest industry.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">Climate change already has cost farmers money. In the Central Valley, some growers are paying more for seeds designed to withstand the new extremes.\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Farmers are in many ways at the front line of climate change. They conjure food from soil, sunlight and water – all of which are profoundly affected, scientists say, by climate change. Stresses have emerged across the state as water supplies tighten. Rain is coming at unexpected times. Winters aren’t getting cold enough. And salt from the rising ocean is making its way into Central Valley water.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Climate change already has cost farmers money. In the Central Valley, some growers are paying more for seeds designed to withstand the new extremes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At the nurseries and colleges in what Duarte calls “the Silicon Valley of agricultural innovation,” these changing conditions have forced botanists to look for varieties of almond, pepper, citrus, cherry and other crops resistant to drought and salt.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Other interests also are bracing for dramatic change. The crop insurance industry is calculating potential billion-dollar losses from extreme weather conditions, as well as the floods and fires that occur in their wake. Climate change could join the ranks of earthquake and hurricane insurance as a special – and hugely expensive – problem for insurers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_45066\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/sa04_clone_resized.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-45066\" title=\"Plant clone\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/sa04_clone_resized-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">John Duarte, of Duarte Nursery, holds a plant that he's breeding to be more tolerant to heat and salt. Photo: Center for Investigative Reporting.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Over the past 20 years, there has been more than $500 million in crop losses from heat waves, floods and ill-timed rainstorms in the heavily agricultural counties of San Joaquin, Merced, Kings, Kern, Napa and Sonoma, according to a study last year by a team of Stanford University researchers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Compared to 20 or 30 years ago, farmers are recognizing a lot more risk factors in climate events,” said Jeff Yasui, director of the \u003ca title=\"USDA Risk Management Agency\" href=\"http://www.rma.usda.gov/\" target=\"_blank\">U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Risk Management Agency office\u003c/a> in California, which handles crop insurance in the state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Climate and agriculture scientists predicted much of this. \u003ca title=\"Charles Kolstad bio\" href=\"http://www2.bren.ucsb.edu/~kolstad/HmPg/\" target=\"_blank\">Charles Kolstad\u003c/a>, an environmental economist at UC Santa Barbara, said California agriculture is being hit with a trifecta of converging forces prompted by climate change: longer seasons of extreme heat, shorter cold seasons and dwindling water supplies.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">Rain is coming at unexpected times. Winters aren’t getting cold enough. And salt from the rising ocean is making its way into Central Valley water.\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Yields of key crops are expected to drop significantly over the coming decades as climate change alters these growing conditions, according to a report Kolstad co-wrote for the state Environmental Protection Agency and Energy Commission and published last fall in the peer-reviewed journal Climatic Change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Climate scientists believe the Earth’s average temperature will rise at least 2 degrees in the next four decades – their most conservative estimate. Along the way, the yields of citrus crops in the San Joaquin Valley are expected to drop about 18 percent, grapes about 6 percent, and cherries and other orchard crops about 9 percent.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Those crops – accustomed to the cooler edges of California’s climate – are showing declining yields already, according to the \u003ca title=\"National Agricultural Statistics Service\" href=\"http://www.nass.usda.gov/\" target=\"_blank\">USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service\u003c/a>. That could mean higher prices for consumers as the supply shrinks. This summer’s record droughts in the Midwest also prompted the USDA to predict a similar rise in prices driven by devastated yields for corn and soybeans, the primary food for chicken and cattle nationwide.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Kolstad and other scientists have focused on tree-based perennial crops because they are fixed in 25- to 30-year cycles and cannot easily be adapted to changing conditions. Switching a tree orchard from cherries, for example, to more heat-tolerant pistachios, avocados or tangerines can cost millions of dollars before the trees start bearing marketable fruit.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If California’s water crisis persists, seasonal vegetables and fruits also will be dramatically affected. Some already are.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">This year, Sacramento Delta water supplies are not expected to come anywhere close to filling the irrigation needs of Central Valley farmers.\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Much of the southern Central Valley, spreading along either side of Interstate 5, is now a patchwork of fallow fields, according to Gayle Holman with the \u003ca title=\"Westlands Water District\" href=\"http://www.westlandswater.org/wwd/default2.asp?cwide=1280\" target=\"_blank\">Westlands Water District\u003c/a> in Fresno. Thousands of acres that once grew onions, tomatoes, melons and other crops have been set aside by farmers because they can no longer obtain, or afford, water – a scarcity, scientists say, that is significantly due to the dramatic shifts in the timing of rainfalls in the state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Those grower cutbacks are felt most acutely in Central Valley towns like Mendota, where farm workers can no longer find the seasonal fieldwork upon which they once relied. Official unemployment in the area ranges between 15 and 20 percent. Studies by the state’s Employment Development Department show an inverse correlation between water allocations and unemployment in the valley: The water supply goes down, and the unemployment rate goes up.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>One problem, then another\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Like just about everything having to do with climate change, the consequences unfold like a sequence of trapdoors. First, there’s the temperature, a jagged progression over the past decade of unusual highs and lows occurring at times of the year that can debilitate growing crops.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_45073\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/California_Aqueduct_and_fields_resized1.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-45073\" title=\"California Aqueduct\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/California_Aqueduct_and_fields_resized1-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Scientists warn that less water is coming into the system. Photo: Gabriela Quirós.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Then there’s the water. California’s water sources are caught in a pincer: More water is needed at a time when less water is being delivered into the network of canals carrying it from the north to the agricultural regions in the south.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A precipitous drop in snowfall has led to declining water runoff in the San Joaquin and Sacramento rivers in the spring and summer months, when it’s central to irrigation in the valley. Over the past century, the state \u003ca title=\"Department of Water Resources\" href=\"http://www.water.ca.gov/\" target=\"_blank\">Department of Water Resources\u003c/a> has measured a steady 10 percent decline in runoff from April to July. In recent years, however, the rate has accelerated to as much as 20 percent during those critical months.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For the three years between 2006 and 2009, the runoff amounted to the equivalent of two “normal” years, according to John Leahigh, chief of operations planning for the \u003ca title=\"California State Water Project\" href=\"http://www.water.ca.gov/swp/\" target=\"_blank\">California State Water Project\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In fact, such calculations appear to be the new normal. This year, Sacramento Delta water supplies are not expected to come anywhere close to filling the irrigation needs of Central Valley farmers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In February, the Department of Water Resources cut the delivery of water to valley farmers from 60 to 50 percent of their allotment – a practically unprecedented reduction that late in the growing season, according to Leahigh.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Parts of the valley supplied by the federal water project have been cut even more severely, to 30 percent of their normal allotment.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Farmers in the valley generally blame the drop-off in water on the 2007 state Supreme Court decision affirming the need for water to preserve Pacific smelt and other endangered species.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A study by the \u003ca title=\"Public Policy Institute of California\" href=\"http://www.ppic.org/main/home.asp\" target=\"_blank\">Public Policy Institute of California\u003c/a>, however, concludes that the roughly 300,000 acre-feet of water diverted to comply with the Endangered Species Act constitutes no more than 15 to 20 percent of the reduced water flow to the valley.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Rather, the overall pool of water is shrinking.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There’s less water coming into the system,” said \u003ca title=\"Francis Chung bio\" href=\"http://baydeltaoffice.water.ca.gov/modeling/keypersonnel.cfm\" target=\"_blank\">Francis Chung\u003c/a>, chief of the Modeling Support Branch for the Department of Water Resources. “The water that used to exist is now coming earlier in the year. So there’s less water to distribute (to the valley) during the summer.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Rising sea levels threaten water supply\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Another growing problem has been rising sea levels associated with climate change. The San Francisco Bay, according to a recent assessment by the \u003ca title=\"National Research Council\" href=\"http://nationalacademies.org/nrc/\" target=\"_blank\">National Research Council\u003c/a>, is projected to rise by as much as 18 inches, and potentially triple that by the end of the century. Those inches translate into waves of new salt sources lapping into the delta.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Less water channeled into the delta from the Sierra means less available freshwater to dilute the onrush of salt, which has been pushing steadily eastward.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For each foot in sea level, 200,000 acre-feet of freshwater, known as “carriage water,” is needed to hold the line on the saltwater. That amounts to one-fifth the volume of Folsom Lake each year, according to Chung, and the diversions will only increase as the sea level rises.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A study by UC Davis estimates that if salinity continues to rise at the current rate, by 2030, the financial costs to the Central Valley could be huge: as much as $1 billion to $1.5 billion a year in decreased agricultural activity, amounting to some 27,000 to 53,000 jobs lost.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_45064\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/sa01_leaves_resized1.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-45064\" title=\"Almond leaves burned by salt\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/sa01_leaves_resized1-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Salt in the groundwater burns almond leaves and reduces a tree's yield. Photo: Center for Investigative Reporting.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Over the next 40 years, salinity is expected to increase by 4 to 26 percent, depending on the time of year, at the two water-pumping stations outside of Tracy. From there, most of the water destined for the valley is sent southward, according to a study by the Public Policy Institute of California and the \u003ca title=\"Center for Watershed Sciences\" href=\"http://watershed.ucdavis.edu/front?destination=node/116\" target=\"_blank\">Center for Watershed Sciences at UC Davis\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca title=\"Ellen Hanak bio\" href=\"http://www.ppic.org/main/bio.asp?i=72\" target=\"_blank\">Ellen Hanak\u003c/a>, senior policy fellow at the institute, explained that inside the delta, the network of waterways helps to dilute the salt content. But in the Central Valley, she said, there’s not enough freshwater to reduce the salt’s impact. That’s partly the result of farmers using more targeted irrigation to reduce waste; they no longer have the excess spillover to mix with the salt.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There’s no drainage,” she said. “They can’t get rid of it.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As freshwater supplies decrease, the decisions over how to use it are likely to become even more difficult.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Water used to push the ocean back is water not used for agriculture,” said Tara Smith, an analyst and water modeling expert for the Department of Water Resources.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In other words, the liquid barricade needed to hold back the ocean is drawn from a dwindling amount of freshwater. The reduction in allocations issued by the water board in February means that more water is necessary to hold back the advancing Pacific Ocean and push the saltwater intrusion westward.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re going to have to keep reducing the volume of exports from the delta because of the increased volume needed of carriage water,” said Chung at the Department of Water Resources.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">“The higher the value of the crop, the more sensitive it is to salt.”\u003cbr>\nDaniel Cozad, executive director, Central Valley Salinity Coalition \u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Nevertheless, 40 railroad cars’ worth of salt – about 500,000 tons a year – flow daily out of the delta into the fields of the Central Valley. That adds extra salt to valley soils already made salty by the intensive pumping of groundwater from what millions of years ago was the ocean floor.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Daniel Cozad, executive director of the \u003ca title=\"Central Valley Salinity Coalition\" href=\"http://cvsalinity.org/\" target=\"_blank\">Central Valley Salinity Coalition\u003c/a>, a group of local farmers, businessmen and government officials, said some farmers in the western valley are being forced to adapt by switching from salt-sensitive crops like strawberries and avocados to less sensitive – and less profitable – crops like alfalfa and wheat.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Unfortunately,” Cozad said, “the higher the value of the crop, the more sensitive it is to salt.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>This story was edited by Robert Salladay and copy edited by Nikki Frick and Christine Lee. \u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This story was produced by the nonprofit \u003ca title=\"Center for Investigative Reporting\" href=\"http://cironline.org/\" target=\"_blank\">Center for Investigative Reporting\u003c/a>, the country’s largest investigative reporting team, in collaboration with KQED. Mark Schapiro can be reached at \u003ca href=\"mailto:mschapiro@cironline.org\">mschapiro@cironline.org\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Salty groundwater is ruining almond crops in the Central Valley, and scientists expect sea level rise to worsen the problem. This video is part of the Heat and Harvest series, co-produced by KQED and the Center for Investigative Reporting.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1457566998,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":56,"wordCount":2448},"headData":{"title":"Dry and Salted | KQED","description":"Salty groundwater is ruining almond crops in the Central Valley, and scientists expect sea level rise to worsen the problem. This video is part of the Heat and Harvest series, co-produced by KQED and the Center for Investigative Reporting.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"Dry and Salted","datePublished":"2012-09-27T08:00:18.000Z","dateModified":"2016-03-09T23:43:18.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"disqusIdentifier":"45029 http://science.kqed.org/quest/?post_type=videos&p=45029","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/09/27/dry-and-salted/","disqusTitle":"Dry and Salted","videoEmbed":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5qlmcD7ceY","path":"/quest/45029/dry-and-salted","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Dry and Salted\u003c/strong> examines the major wildcards in California's farming future: water and salt. Growers are having to learn to get along with less of the first and more of the second. That can mean leaving once-productive fields fallow or having to find less water-intensive crops and irrigation methods. But water quality is also presenting a challenge as growers find themselves having to cope with salt in their groundwater and the threat of encroaching saltwater from rising seas. (Reporter: Mark Schapiro / Producer: Serene Fang)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Dry and Salted \u003c/strong>is one of the three stories in \u003cstrong>\u003ca title=\"Heat and Harvest\" href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/video/heat-and-harvest/\" target=\"_blank\">Heat and Harvest\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>, a half-hour documentary on how climate change is challenging California’s $30 billion agricultural industry. \u003cstrong>Heat and Harvest \u003c/strong>is a co-production of KQED and the \u003ca title=\"Center for Investigative Reporting\" href=\"http://cironline.org/\" target=\"_blank\">Center for Investigative Reporting\u003c/a> and airs on KQED channel 9 on Friday Sept. 28 and Monday Oct. 1 at 7:30 pm. The film also airs on PBS stations around California in September and October. Check local listings.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>\u003cbr>\n\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003ch1>Volatile weather creates dramatic changes for California farmers\u003c/h1>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nBy Mark Schapiro\u003cbr>\nCenter for Investigative Reporting\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>This article is part 1 of a two-part series published in newspapers across California on Thurs. Sept. 27.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ten miles outside of Modesto, in the farming town of Hughson just off Highway 99, the \u003ca title=\"Duarte Nursery\" href=\"http://duartenursery.com/\" target=\"_blank\">Duarte Nursery\u003c/a> is at the front line of dramatic changes now under way in California’s immense agriculture industry.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_45068\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/sa08_Jduarte_resized.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-45068\" title=\"John Duarte, of Duarte Nursery\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/sa08_Jduarte_resized-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">John Duarte, of Duarte Nursery. Photo: Center for Investigative Reporting.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The family-run nursery, founded in 1976, is one of the largest in the United States, and there’s a good chance the berries, nuts and citrus fruits eaten across the West began their journey to market as seedlings in Duarte’s 30 acres of greenhouses, labs and breeding stations.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The nursery’s owners have built a thriving business using state-of-the-art techniques to develop varieties adapted to the particular conditions and pests California farmers face.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>These days, according to John Duarte, president of the nursery, that means breeding for elevated levels of heat and salt, which researchers say are symptoms of climate change – even if Duarte doesn’t necessarily see it that way.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Whether it’s carbon built up in the atmosphere or just friggin’ bad luck,” he said, “the conditions are straining us.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The cause of Duarte’s woes might be in dispute among farmers in California’s $31 billion agriculture industry. But the symptoms are clear. From the vast fields of fruits and nuts in the Central Valley to the wineries of Napa and Sonoma, the increasingly volatile weather is altering the fundamental conditions for growing food, California’s largest industry.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">Climate change already has cost farmers money. In the Central Valley, some growers are paying more for seeds designed to withstand the new extremes.\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Farmers are in many ways at the front line of climate change. They conjure food from soil, sunlight and water – all of which are profoundly affected, scientists say, by climate change. Stresses have emerged across the state as water supplies tighten. Rain is coming at unexpected times. Winters aren’t getting cold enough. And salt from the rising ocean is making its way into Central Valley water.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Climate change already has cost farmers money. In the Central Valley, some growers are paying more for seeds designed to withstand the new extremes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At the nurseries and colleges in what Duarte calls “the Silicon Valley of agricultural innovation,” these changing conditions have forced botanists to look for varieties of almond, pepper, citrus, cherry and other crops resistant to drought and salt.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Other interests also are bracing for dramatic change. The crop insurance industry is calculating potential billion-dollar losses from extreme weather conditions, as well as the floods and fires that occur in their wake. Climate change could join the ranks of earthquake and hurricane insurance as a special – and hugely expensive – problem for insurers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_45066\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/sa04_clone_resized.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-45066\" title=\"Plant clone\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/sa04_clone_resized-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">John Duarte, of Duarte Nursery, holds a plant that he's breeding to be more tolerant to heat and salt. Photo: Center for Investigative Reporting.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Over the past 20 years, there has been more than $500 million in crop losses from heat waves, floods and ill-timed rainstorms in the heavily agricultural counties of San Joaquin, Merced, Kings, Kern, Napa and Sonoma, according to a study last year by a team of Stanford University researchers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Compared to 20 or 30 years ago, farmers are recognizing a lot more risk factors in climate events,” said Jeff Yasui, director of the \u003ca title=\"USDA Risk Management Agency\" href=\"http://www.rma.usda.gov/\" target=\"_blank\">U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Risk Management Agency office\u003c/a> in California, which handles crop insurance in the state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Climate and agriculture scientists predicted much of this. \u003ca title=\"Charles Kolstad bio\" href=\"http://www2.bren.ucsb.edu/~kolstad/HmPg/\" target=\"_blank\">Charles Kolstad\u003c/a>, an environmental economist at UC Santa Barbara, said California agriculture is being hit with a trifecta of converging forces prompted by climate change: longer seasons of extreme heat, shorter cold seasons and dwindling water supplies.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">Rain is coming at unexpected times. Winters aren’t getting cold enough. And salt from the rising ocean is making its way into Central Valley water.\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Yields of key crops are expected to drop significantly over the coming decades as climate change alters these growing conditions, according to a report Kolstad co-wrote for the state Environmental Protection Agency and Energy Commission and published last fall in the peer-reviewed journal Climatic Change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Climate scientists believe the Earth’s average temperature will rise at least 2 degrees in the next four decades – their most conservative estimate. Along the way, the yields of citrus crops in the San Joaquin Valley are expected to drop about 18 percent, grapes about 6 percent, and cherries and other orchard crops about 9 percent.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Those crops – accustomed to the cooler edges of California’s climate – are showing declining yields already, according to the \u003ca title=\"National Agricultural Statistics Service\" href=\"http://www.nass.usda.gov/\" target=\"_blank\">USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service\u003c/a>. That could mean higher prices for consumers as the supply shrinks. This summer’s record droughts in the Midwest also prompted the USDA to predict a similar rise in prices driven by devastated yields for corn and soybeans, the primary food for chicken and cattle nationwide.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Kolstad and other scientists have focused on tree-based perennial crops because they are fixed in 25- to 30-year cycles and cannot easily be adapted to changing conditions. Switching a tree orchard from cherries, for example, to more heat-tolerant pistachios, avocados or tangerines can cost millions of dollars before the trees start bearing marketable fruit.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If California’s water crisis persists, seasonal vegetables and fruits also will be dramatically affected. Some already are.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">This year, Sacramento Delta water supplies are not expected to come anywhere close to filling the irrigation needs of Central Valley farmers.\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Much of the southern Central Valley, spreading along either side of Interstate 5, is now a patchwork of fallow fields, according to Gayle Holman with the \u003ca title=\"Westlands Water District\" href=\"http://www.westlandswater.org/wwd/default2.asp?cwide=1280\" target=\"_blank\">Westlands Water District\u003c/a> in Fresno. Thousands of acres that once grew onions, tomatoes, melons and other crops have been set aside by farmers because they can no longer obtain, or afford, water – a scarcity, scientists say, that is significantly due to the dramatic shifts in the timing of rainfalls in the state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Those grower cutbacks are felt most acutely in Central Valley towns like Mendota, where farm workers can no longer find the seasonal fieldwork upon which they once relied. Official unemployment in the area ranges between 15 and 20 percent. Studies by the state’s Employment Development Department show an inverse correlation between water allocations and unemployment in the valley: The water supply goes down, and the unemployment rate goes up.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>One problem, then another\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Like just about everything having to do with climate change, the consequences unfold like a sequence of trapdoors. First, there’s the temperature, a jagged progression over the past decade of unusual highs and lows occurring at times of the year that can debilitate growing crops.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_45073\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/California_Aqueduct_and_fields_resized1.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-45073\" title=\"California Aqueduct\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/California_Aqueduct_and_fields_resized1-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Scientists warn that less water is coming into the system. Photo: Gabriela Quirós.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Then there’s the water. California’s water sources are caught in a pincer: More water is needed at a time when less water is being delivered into the network of canals carrying it from the north to the agricultural regions in the south.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A precipitous drop in snowfall has led to declining water runoff in the San Joaquin and Sacramento rivers in the spring and summer months, when it’s central to irrigation in the valley. Over the past century, the state \u003ca title=\"Department of Water Resources\" href=\"http://www.water.ca.gov/\" target=\"_blank\">Department of Water Resources\u003c/a> has measured a steady 10 percent decline in runoff from April to July. In recent years, however, the rate has accelerated to as much as 20 percent during those critical months.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For the three years between 2006 and 2009, the runoff amounted to the equivalent of two “normal” years, according to John Leahigh, chief of operations planning for the \u003ca title=\"California State Water Project\" href=\"http://www.water.ca.gov/swp/\" target=\"_blank\">California State Water Project\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In fact, such calculations appear to be the new normal. This year, Sacramento Delta water supplies are not expected to come anywhere close to filling the irrigation needs of Central Valley farmers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In February, the Department of Water Resources cut the delivery of water to valley farmers from 60 to 50 percent of their allotment – a practically unprecedented reduction that late in the growing season, according to Leahigh.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Parts of the valley supplied by the federal water project have been cut even more severely, to 30 percent of their normal allotment.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Farmers in the valley generally blame the drop-off in water on the 2007 state Supreme Court decision affirming the need for water to preserve Pacific smelt and other endangered species.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A study by the \u003ca title=\"Public Policy Institute of California\" href=\"http://www.ppic.org/main/home.asp\" target=\"_blank\">Public Policy Institute of California\u003c/a>, however, concludes that the roughly 300,000 acre-feet of water diverted to comply with the Endangered Species Act constitutes no more than 15 to 20 percent of the reduced water flow to the valley.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Rather, the overall pool of water is shrinking.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There’s less water coming into the system,” said \u003ca title=\"Francis Chung bio\" href=\"http://baydeltaoffice.water.ca.gov/modeling/keypersonnel.cfm\" target=\"_blank\">Francis Chung\u003c/a>, chief of the Modeling Support Branch for the Department of Water Resources. “The water that used to exist is now coming earlier in the year. So there’s less water to distribute (to the valley) during the summer.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Rising sea levels threaten water supply\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Another growing problem has been rising sea levels associated with climate change. The San Francisco Bay, according to a recent assessment by the \u003ca title=\"National Research Council\" href=\"http://nationalacademies.org/nrc/\" target=\"_blank\">National Research Council\u003c/a>, is projected to rise by as much as 18 inches, and potentially triple that by the end of the century. Those inches translate into waves of new salt sources lapping into the delta.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Less water channeled into the delta from the Sierra means less available freshwater to dilute the onrush of salt, which has been pushing steadily eastward.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For each foot in sea level, 200,000 acre-feet of freshwater, known as “carriage water,” is needed to hold the line on the saltwater. That amounts to one-fifth the volume of Folsom Lake each year, according to Chung, and the diversions will only increase as the sea level rises.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A study by UC Davis estimates that if salinity continues to rise at the current rate, by 2030, the financial costs to the Central Valley could be huge: as much as $1 billion to $1.5 billion a year in decreased agricultural activity, amounting to some 27,000 to 53,000 jobs lost.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_45064\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/sa01_leaves_resized1.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-45064\" title=\"Almond leaves burned by salt\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/sa01_leaves_resized1-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Salt in the groundwater burns almond leaves and reduces a tree's yield. Photo: Center for Investigative Reporting.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Over the next 40 years, salinity is expected to increase by 4 to 26 percent, depending on the time of year, at the two water-pumping stations outside of Tracy. From there, most of the water destined for the valley is sent southward, according to a study by the Public Policy Institute of California and the \u003ca title=\"Center for Watershed Sciences\" href=\"http://watershed.ucdavis.edu/front?destination=node/116\" target=\"_blank\">Center for Watershed Sciences at UC Davis\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca title=\"Ellen Hanak bio\" href=\"http://www.ppic.org/main/bio.asp?i=72\" target=\"_blank\">Ellen Hanak\u003c/a>, senior policy fellow at the institute, explained that inside the delta, the network of waterways helps to dilute the salt content. But in the Central Valley, she said, there’s not enough freshwater to reduce the salt’s impact. That’s partly the result of farmers using more targeted irrigation to reduce waste; they no longer have the excess spillover to mix with the salt.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There’s no drainage,” she said. “They can’t get rid of it.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As freshwater supplies decrease, the decisions over how to use it are likely to become even more difficult.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Water used to push the ocean back is water not used for agriculture,” said Tara Smith, an analyst and water modeling expert for the Department of Water Resources.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In other words, the liquid barricade needed to hold back the ocean is drawn from a dwindling amount of freshwater. The reduction in allocations issued by the water board in February means that more water is necessary to hold back the advancing Pacific Ocean and push the saltwater intrusion westward.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re going to have to keep reducing the volume of exports from the delta because of the increased volume needed of carriage water,” said Chung at the Department of Water Resources.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">“The higher the value of the crop, the more sensitive it is to salt.”\u003cbr>\nDaniel Cozad, executive director, Central Valley Salinity Coalition \u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Nevertheless, 40 railroad cars’ worth of salt – about 500,000 tons a year – flow daily out of the delta into the fields of the Central Valley. That adds extra salt to valley soils already made salty by the intensive pumping of groundwater from what millions of years ago was the ocean floor.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Daniel Cozad, executive director of the \u003ca title=\"Central Valley Salinity Coalition\" href=\"http://cvsalinity.org/\" target=\"_blank\">Central Valley Salinity Coalition\u003c/a>, a group of local farmers, businessmen and government officials, said some farmers in the western valley are being forced to adapt by switching from salt-sensitive crops like strawberries and avocados to less sensitive – and less profitable – crops like alfalfa and wheat.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Unfortunately,” Cozad said, “the higher the value of the crop, the more sensitive it is to salt.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>This story was edited by Robert Salladay and copy edited by Nikki Frick and Christine Lee. \u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"floatright"},"numeric":["floatright"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This story was produced by the nonprofit \u003ca title=\"Center for Investigative Reporting\" href=\"http://cironline.org/\" target=\"_blank\">Center for Investigative Reporting\u003c/a>, the country’s largest investigative reporting team, in collaboration with KQED. Mark Schapiro can be reached at \u003ca href=\"mailto:mschapiro@cironline.org\">mschapiro@cironline.org\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/quest/45029/dry-and-salted","authors":["10385"],"series":["quest_13295"],"categories":["quest_6","quest_9","quest_3229","quest_3422","quest_3233","quest_11766"],"tags":["quest_85","quest_11496","quest_11484","quest_533","quest_11498","quest_621","quest_11500","quest_11463","quest_11499","quest_11497","quest_11495","quest_2559","quest_2893","quest_3071","quest_3108"],"collections":["quest_3354"],"featImg":"quest_45066","label":"quest_13295"},"quest_44496":{"type":"posts","id":"quest_44496","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"quest","id":"44496","score":null,"sort":[1348444841000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"heat-and-harvest-2","title":"Heat, Salt and Pests Threaten California Fields","publishDate":1348444841,"format":"video","headTitle":"Heat and Harvest | QUEST | KQED Science","labelTerm":{"term":13295,"site":"quest"},"content":"\u003cp>http://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/quest/2012/09/2012-09-24-quest.mp3\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/IMG_24291-e1348179997154.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-44525\" title=\"tomatoes\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/IMG_24291-e1348179997154.jpg\" alt=\"tomatoes\" width=\"639\" height=\"359\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/IMG_24291-e1348179997154.jpg 639w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/IMG_24291-e1348179997154-400x225.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 639px) 100vw, 639px\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This summer, while the media was full of images of desiccated corn stalks in the Midwest, climate change was quietly creeping up on the California farm belt. The effects of rising temperatures, encroaching pests and shrinking water supplies are all showing up in California fields, threatening a $30 billion-dollar industry and putting pressure on produce prices.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Now those concerns — and some possible solutions — are explored in a new documentary, \u003ca href=\"http://ow.ly/dSjxu\">Heat and Harvest,\u003c/a> co-reported by \u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/author/cmiller/\">KQED Science Editor Craig Miller \u003c/a>and \u003ca href=\"http://californiawatch.org/user/mark-schapiro\">Mark Schapiro of the Center for Investigative Reporting\u003c/a>, whose forthcoming book examines the financial costs of America’s carbon footprint. In this conversation, the two compare notes from their reporting.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>MARK SCHAPIRO: Let's remember, farmers are the ones who experience climate change most directly of all of us. So the extraordinary heat — really the volatility of the heat when it's showing up at different times — has had a major impact on the types of crops being grown.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>CRAIG MILLER: Yeah, a lot of people think about the nice warm, consistent growing climate that California has. But I think what a lot of people don't realize is that many crops need some relief from that warmth and heat, in order to develop properly, right?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>MS: Yes, that was interesting. I certainly didn't expect, when I was reporting, to find that cherries, for example, are extremely sensitive to climactic conditions. They need to get cold in the winter so that they can kind of hibernate, and preserve their energy for when they blossom. Well, we've been seeing less of that chill factor here in the state of California. We've also been seeing less fog.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>CM: …in the inland areas.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>MS: In the inland areas, you know, we're talking about the Central Valley. And so you've seen pretty significant drop-offs in cherry production\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>CM: And also what we're seeing are some of the indirect effects of temperatures on crops, such as what turned up in our reporting on a tiny little bug called the psyllid, which is making its home in California's potato and tomato fields, and can do enormous damage, as John Trumble, an entomologist at UC Riverside told us:\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>\"The losses in San Diego County alone were about 85% of total productivity in 2004-2005; the losses were substantial. They were so large in Mexico, and Baja in particular, that they began planting tomatoes in screen houses, instead of large thousands-of-acre fields.\"\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>MS: What are these, bugs that are more accustomed to warmer climates somewhere else in the world?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>CM: Yeah, the psyllids have always been in California at least part time. They would move up from Mexico; in the case of California, they're coming from Baja, basically. They would move into California during the summer season, and then retreat during the winters. But researchers at UC Riverside found just a few years ago, all of the sudden, they're not retreating anymore. They're staying over the winter. And because they're staying here during the winter, they can start a lot earlier and do a lot more damage. And they're being found farther and farther North all the time. They've been found in Northern California, and even up in Idaho, which of course is big-time potato country.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I think we all know that water is becoming a bigger and bigger issue in California, particularly for agriculture, but there's this interesting connection with salt. Talk about that.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>MS: Right, remember that the Central Valley is built on top of what used to be the ocean, and like, 2 million years ago you'd go surfing in Modesto [both laugh]. So, that salt is at rest deep inside the aquifer. All those years of pumping ground water has brought huge amounts of salt to the surface, which they used to drain with water. So number one, you have an increasing problem with salt, and you have farmers who are utilizing water with salt that is actually hurting their plants. We talk about that in the documentary; we show farmers whose crops have been directly impacted.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>CM: Almonds, in particular - another huge crop.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>MS: Right, right. And two, you have the rising sea level. So, remember: climate change, rising sea level, could be as much as a foot-and-a-half by 2050, according to the National Academy of Sciences. And all of that saltwater coming into the Delta…\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>CM: …pushing back on it, basically.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>MS: Exactly. What you've got is the state of California now committing huge amounts of its freshwater — that precious freshwater, the water that actually does come out of the mountains —is used to actually push back the salt water in the Sacramento delta to prevent it from coming down into the Central Valley. So, as a result, you have two things happening with water: One, less is falling as snow, so it's not preserved in the mountains in a big reservoir, and two, huge amounts of that freshwater is needed to hold back the rising sea.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>CM: Did you get the sense, in your reporting, that there are solutions out there for these problems, or not yet?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>MS: Uh, good question, I mean basically look, the overall solution is going to be to slow the rate of climate change. That is the overall big solution that you cannot get around.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>CM: Right, reducing the carbon footprint.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>MS: Reducing the carbon footprint. Short of that, you have scientists who are trying to develop new crop varieties that are more resistant to salt, more resistant to heat, and don’t need as much chill. And these are efforts. We visited one of the nurseries, I know you've talked to some of the scientists involved in the pest department--so they're trying very hard to kind of adapt to this circumstance. We'll see how effective that is, really.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>See and hear more about all of the issues discussed here in the documentary, \u003cstrong>Heat and Harvest\u003c/strong>, which premieres Friday, September 28, on KQED TV, at 7:30 pm.\u003cbr>\n\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"California's warming climate is having a big impact on farmers. Find out more from our multimedia series, \"Heat and Harvest.\"","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1443824660,"stats":{"hasAudio":true,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":25,"wordCount":1050},"headData":{"title":"Heat, Salt and Pests Threaten California Fields | KQED","description":"California's warming climate is having a big impact on farmers. Find out more from our multimedia series, "Heat and Harvest."","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"Heat, Salt and Pests Threaten California Fields","datePublished":"2012-09-24T00:00:41.000Z","dateModified":"2015-10-02T22:24:20.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"disqusIdentifier":"44496 http://science.kqed.org/quest/?post_type=audio_reports&p=44496","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/09/23/heat-and-harvest-2/","disqusTitle":"Heat, Salt and Pests Threaten California Fields","path":"/quest/44496/heat-and-harvest-2","audioUrl":"http://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/quest/2012/09/2012-09-24-quest.mp3","audioDuration":null,"audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>http://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/quest/2012/09/2012-09-24-quest.mp3\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/IMG_24291-e1348179997154.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-44525\" title=\"tomatoes\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/IMG_24291-e1348179997154.jpg\" alt=\"tomatoes\" width=\"639\" height=\"359\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/IMG_24291-e1348179997154.jpg 639w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/IMG_24291-e1348179997154-400x225.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 639px) 100vw, 639px\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This summer, while the media was full of images of desiccated corn stalks in the Midwest, climate change was quietly creeping up on the California farm belt. The effects of rising temperatures, encroaching pests and shrinking water supplies are all showing up in California fields, threatening a $30 billion-dollar industry and putting pressure on produce prices.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Now those concerns — and some possible solutions — are explored in a new documentary, \u003ca href=\"http://ow.ly/dSjxu\">Heat and Harvest,\u003c/a> co-reported by \u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/author/cmiller/\">KQED Science Editor Craig Miller \u003c/a>and \u003ca href=\"http://californiawatch.org/user/mark-schapiro\">Mark Schapiro of the Center for Investigative Reporting\u003c/a>, whose forthcoming book examines the financial costs of America’s carbon footprint. In this conversation, the two compare notes from their reporting.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>MARK SCHAPIRO: Let's remember, farmers are the ones who experience climate change most directly of all of us. So the extraordinary heat — really the volatility of the heat when it's showing up at different times — has had a major impact on the types of crops being grown.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>CRAIG MILLER: Yeah, a lot of people think about the nice warm, consistent growing climate that California has. But I think what a lot of people don't realize is that many crops need some relief from that warmth and heat, in order to develop properly, right?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>MS: Yes, that was interesting. I certainly didn't expect, when I was reporting, to find that cherries, for example, are extremely sensitive to climactic conditions. They need to get cold in the winter so that they can kind of hibernate, and preserve their energy for when they blossom. Well, we've been seeing less of that chill factor here in the state of California. We've also been seeing less fog.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>CM: …in the inland areas.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>MS: In the inland areas, you know, we're talking about the Central Valley. And so you've seen pretty significant drop-offs in cherry production\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>CM: And also what we're seeing are some of the indirect effects of temperatures on crops, such as what turned up in our reporting on a tiny little bug called the psyllid, which is making its home in California's potato and tomato fields, and can do enormous damage, as John Trumble, an entomologist at UC Riverside told us:\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>\"The losses in San Diego County alone were about 85% of total productivity in 2004-2005; the losses were substantial. They were so large in Mexico, and Baja in particular, that they began planting tomatoes in screen houses, instead of large thousands-of-acre fields.\"\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>MS: What are these, bugs that are more accustomed to warmer climates somewhere else in the world?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>CM: Yeah, the psyllids have always been in California at least part time. They would move up from Mexico; in the case of California, they're coming from Baja, basically. They would move into California during the summer season, and then retreat during the winters. But researchers at UC Riverside found just a few years ago, all of the sudden, they're not retreating anymore. They're staying over the winter. And because they're staying here during the winter, they can start a lot earlier and do a lot more damage. And they're being found farther and farther North all the time. They've been found in Northern California, and even up in Idaho, which of course is big-time potato country.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I think we all know that water is becoming a bigger and bigger issue in California, particularly for agriculture, but there's this interesting connection with salt. Talk about that.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>MS: Right, remember that the Central Valley is built on top of what used to be the ocean, and like, 2 million years ago you'd go surfing in Modesto [both laugh]. So, that salt is at rest deep inside the aquifer. All those years of pumping ground water has brought huge amounts of salt to the surface, which they used to drain with water. So number one, you have an increasing problem with salt, and you have farmers who are utilizing water with salt that is actually hurting their plants. We talk about that in the documentary; we show farmers whose crops have been directly impacted.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>CM: Almonds, in particular - another huge crop.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>MS: Right, right. And two, you have the rising sea level. So, remember: climate change, rising sea level, could be as much as a foot-and-a-half by 2050, according to the National Academy of Sciences. And all of that saltwater coming into the Delta…\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>CM: …pushing back on it, basically.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>MS: Exactly. What you've got is the state of California now committing huge amounts of its freshwater — that precious freshwater, the water that actually does come out of the mountains —is used to actually push back the salt water in the Sacramento delta to prevent it from coming down into the Central Valley. So, as a result, you have two things happening with water: One, less is falling as snow, so it's not preserved in the mountains in a big reservoir, and two, huge amounts of that freshwater is needed to hold back the rising sea.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>CM: Did you get the sense, in your reporting, that there are solutions out there for these problems, or not yet?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>MS: Uh, good question, I mean basically look, the overall solution is going to be to slow the rate of climate change. That is the overall big solution that you cannot get around.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>CM: Right, reducing the carbon footprint.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>MS: Reducing the carbon footprint. Short of that, you have scientists who are trying to develop new crop varieties that are more resistant to salt, more resistant to heat, and don’t need as much chill. And these are efforts. We visited one of the nurseries, I know you've talked to some of the scientists involved in the pest department--so they're trying very hard to kind of adapt to this circumstance. We'll see how effective that is, really.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>See and hear more about all of the issues discussed here in the documentary, \u003cstrong>Heat and Harvest\u003c/strong>, which premieres Friday, September 28, on KQED TV, at 7:30 pm.\u003cbr>\n\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/quest/44496/heat-and-harvest-2","authors":["221"],"series":["quest_13295"],"categories":["quest_6","quest_9","quest_3229"],"tags":["quest_85","quest_252","quest_11484","quest_13195","quest_11463","quest_11194","quest_13364","quest_2893"],"featImg":"quest_44525","label":"quest_13295"}},"programsReducer":{"possible":{"id":"possible","title":"Possible","info":"Possible is hosted by entrepreneur Reid Hoffman and writer Aria Finger. Together in Possible, Hoffman and Finger lead enlightening discussions about building a brighter collective future. The show features interviews with visionary guests like Trevor Noah, Sam Altman and Janette Sadik-Khan. Possible paints an optimistic portrait of the world we can create through science, policy, business, art and our shared humanity. It asks: What if everything goes right for once? How can we get there? Each episode also includes a short fiction story generated by advanced AI GPT-4, serving as a thought-provoking springboard to speculate how humanity could leverage technology for good.","airtime":"SUN 2pm","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Possible-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.possible.fm/","meta":{"site":"news","source":"Possible"},"link":"/radio/program/possible","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/possible/id1677184070","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/730YpdUSNlMyPQwNnyjp4k"}},"1a":{"id":"1a","title":"1A","info":"1A is home to the national conversation. 1A brings on great guests and frames the best debate in ways that make you think, share and engage.","airtime":"MON-THU 11pm-12am","imageSrc":"https://ww2.kqed.org/radio/wp-content/uploads/sites/50/2018/04/1a.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://the1a.org/","meta":{"site":"news","source":"npr"},"link":"/radio/program/1a","subscribe":{"npr":"https://rpb3r.app.goo.gl/RBrW","apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wa/viewPodcast?s=143441&mt=2&id=1188724250&at=11l79Y&ct=nprdirectory","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/1A-p947376/","rss":"https://feeds.npr.org/510316/podcast.xml"}},"all-things-considered":{"id":"all-things-considered","title":"All Things Considered","info":"Every weekday, \u003cem>All Things Considered\u003c/em> hosts Robert Siegel, Audie Cornish, Ari Shapiro, and Kelly McEvers present the program's trademark mix of news, interviews, commentaries, reviews, and offbeat features. 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And you join us on the journey to find the answers.","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Bay-Curious-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg","imageAlt":"\"KQED Bay Curious","officialWebsiteLink":"/news/series/baycurious","meta":{"site":"news","source":"kqed","order":"4"},"link":"/podcasts/baycurious","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bay-curious/id1172473406","npr":"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/500557090/bay-curious","rss":"https://ww2.kqed.org/news/category/bay-curious-podcast/feed/podcast","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly93dzIua3FlZC5vcmcvbmV3cy9jYXRlZ29yeS9iYXktY3VyaW91cy1wb2RjYXN0L2ZlZWQvcG9kY2FzdA","stitcher":"https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/kqed/bay-curious","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/6O76IdmhixfijmhTZLIJ8k"}},"bbc-world-service":{"id":"bbc-world-service","title":"BBC World Service","info":"The day's top stories from BBC News compiled twice daily in the week, once at weekends.","airtime":"MON-FRI 9pm-10pm, TUE-FRI 1am-2am","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/BBC-World-Service-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/live:bbc_world_service","meta":{"site":"news","source":"BBC World Service"},"link":"/radio/program/bbc-world-service","subscribe":{"apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/global-news-podcast/id135067274?mt=2","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/BBC-World-Service-p455581/","rss":"https://podcasts.files.bbci.co.uk/p02nq0gn.rss"}},"code-switch-life-kit":{"id":"code-switch-life-kit","title":"Code Switch / Life Kit","info":"\u003cem>Code Switch\u003c/em>, which listeners will hear in the first part of the hour, has fearless and much-needed conversations about race. Hosted by journalists of color, the show tackles the subject of race head-on, exploring how it impacts every part of society — from politics and pop culture to history, sports and more.\u003cbr />\u003cbr />\u003cem>Life Kit\u003c/em>, which will be in the second part of the hour, guides you through spaces and feelings no one prepares you for — from finances to mental health, from workplace microaggressions to imposter syndrome, from relationships to parenting. The show features experts with real world experience and shares their knowledge. 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On Our Watch brings listeners into the rooms where officers are questioned and witnesses are interrogated to find out who this system is really protecting. 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For one hour a week, the show tries to lift the veil from the process of \"making media,\" especially news media, because it's through that lens that we see the world and the world sees us","airtime":"SUN 2pm-3pm, MON 12am-1am","imageSrc":"https://ww2.kqed.org/radio/wp-content/uploads/sites/50/2018/04/onTheMedia.png","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.wnycstudios.org/shows/otm","meta":{"site":"news","source":"wnyc"},"link":"/radio/program/on-the-media","subscribe":{"apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/on-the-media/id73330715?mt=2","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/On-the-Media-p69/","rss":"http://feeds.wnyc.org/onthemedia"}},"our-body-politic":{"id":"our-body-politic","title":"Our Body Politic","info":"Presented by KQED, KCRW and KPCC, and created and hosted by award-winning journalist Farai Chideya, Our Body Politic is unapologetically centered on reporting on not just how women of color experience the major political events of today, but how they’re impacting those very issues.","airtime":"SAT 6pm-7pm, SUN 1am-2am","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Our-Body-Politic-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://our-body-politic.simplecast.com/","meta":{"site":"news","source":"kcrw"},"link":"/radio/program/our-body-politic","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/our-body-politic/id1533069868","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5zaW1wbGVjYXN0LmNvbS9feGFQaHMxcw","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/4ApAiLT1kV153TttWAmqmc","rss":"https://feeds.simplecast.com/_xaPhs1s","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/podcasts/News--Politics-Podcasts/Our-Body-Politic-p1369211/"}},"pbs-newshour":{"id":"pbs-newshour","title":"PBS NewsHour","info":"Analysis, background reports and updates from the PBS NewsHour putting today's news in context.","airtime":"MON-FRI 3pm-4pm","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/PBS-News-Hour-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/","meta":{"site":"news","source":"pbs"},"link":"/radio/program/pbs-newshour","subscribe":{"apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/pbs-newshour-full-show/id394432287?mt=2","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/PBS-NewsHour---Full-Show-p425698/","rss":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/feeds/rss/podcasts/show"}},"perspectives":{"id":"perspectives","title":"Perspectives","tagline":"KQED's series of of daily listener commentaries since 1991","info":"KQED's series of of daily listener commentaries since 1991.","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Perspectives-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"/perspectives/","meta":{"site":"radio","source":"kqed","order":"15"},"link":"/perspectives","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id73801135","npr":"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/432309616/perspectives","rss":"https://ww2.kqed.org/perspectives/category/perspectives/feed/","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly93dzIua3FlZC5vcmcvcGVyc3BlY3RpdmVzL2NhdGVnb3J5L3BlcnNwZWN0aXZlcy9mZWVkLw"}},"planet-money":{"id":"planet-money","title":"Planet Money","info":"The economy explained. 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The result is stories that inform and inspire, arming our listeners with information to right injustices, hold the powerful accountable and improve lives.Reveal is hosted by Al Letson and showcases the award-winning work of CIR and newsrooms large and small across the nation. In a radio and podcast market crowded with choices, Reveal focuses on important and often surprising stories that illuminate the world for our listeners.","airtime":"SAT 4pm-5pm","imageSrc":"https://ww2.kqed.org/radio/wp-content/uploads/sites/50/2018/04/reveal300px.png","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.revealnews.org/episodes/","meta":{"site":"news","source":"npr"},"link":"/radio/program/reveal","subscribe":{"apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/reveal/id886009669","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/Reveal-p679597/","rss":"http://feeds.revealradio.org/revealpodcast"}},"says-you":{"id":"says-you","title":"Says You!","info":"Public radio's game show of bluff and bluster, words and whimsy. 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